Summary of WMO 1st Meeting of the CAeM Expert Team on New Terminal Weather Forecast

1
Summary of WMO 1st Meeting of the CAeM Expert
Team on New Terminal Weather Forecast

2
Terms of Reference of WMO Expert Team on New
Ternminal Forecast (ET/NTF)

• The Expert Team on New Terminal Weather Forecast
  was established by WMO following the adoption of
  Resolution 3 (CAeM-XIII) with the following Terms
  of Reference
• To establish a number of small and focussed
  Expert Teams, an Expert Network, and a
  Rapporteur, to tackle specific issues, with the
  following terms of reference
• To develop in close cooperation with the relevant
  bodies of ICAO proposals for a new terminal
  weather forecast adapted to the needs of the 21st
  Century
• To develop guidance on the provision of new and
  tailored services for all aviation stakeholders
  including airlines, commercial and general
  aviation, national and regional air traffic
  management and airport operators.

3
Limitation of standard OPMET data

• Existing MET products TAF, TREND, take-off
  forecast etc. ? Annex 3 standard MET products
• Limitations and Gap
• Crosswind, headwind, gusts, windshear,
  turbulence, change group criteria
• TAF -- Limited for aerodrome area (5 km around
  HKIA)

4
Different countries develop different products to
cater for the gap

• Similarity
• More details between 0-2 hours ? nowcasting
  products
• Probabilistic forecast
• Use of graphical/tabular form with alerting
  criteria
• Lead times exceed the 2-hour limitation of TREND
  forecast
• Weather briefing in plane language
• Collaborative Decision Making products (all
  partners share the information)

5
(No Transcript)
6
Weather Briefing
Weather Summary Page (HK)

• Provide assessment of the latest weather
  situation
• Additional information beyond TAF, e.g.
  likelihood of strong crosswinds, windshear, low
  visibility
• Outlook for up to 48 hours

7
Nowcasting Automated Thunderstorm Alert Service
(Australia)
8
Nowcasting
Nowcasting of thunderstorms for terminal area
(HK)
9
Probabilistic forecast generation...

Deterministic Forecast
Initial Condition Uncertainty

X
Analysis
Climatology
Forecast uncertainty
time
10
Probability forecast (Canada)

• Ensemble Prediction Systems are able to convey
  information about the uncertainty that is
  inherent in meteorology.

11
Probability Maps (Canada)
12
http//weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/ensemble/index_naefs
_e.html
13
Tabular form with alerting thresholds
Observation board (France)
1st WMO New Terminal area Weather Forecast ET,
Hong-Kong, China, 12-16 march 2007
14
Tabular form with alerting thresholds
Forecasting board (France)
Includes nowcasting, short and medium range
forecasting for CDG
1st WMO New Terminal area Weather Forecast ET,
Hong-Kong, China, 12-16 march 2007
15
Tabular form with alerting thresholds
 Atmogramme  (France)
All codes, symbols and colours have been defined
in collaboration with users
1st WMO New Terminal area Weather Forecast ET,
Hong-Kong, China, 12-16 march 2007
16
Tabular form with alerting thresholds
Extended take-off forecast (HK)

• Extended forecast up to 18 hrs
• Updated every half-hour
• Crosswind rounded to nearest knot
• (error 5 kt)
• Crosswind highlighted gt 25kt
• (1-3 hr -gt red
• 4-18 hr -gt amber)

17
NowcastingTactical Decision Aid for Terminal
(USA)

• Corner posts are entrances in the sky
  surrounding major airports, 50-70 miles away.
• Air traffic is sequenced through these posts.
• Location of posts is fixed, and each has its own
  unique weather limitations.

Map of northeastern Texas, showing gridded data
values valid for the gridpoints closest to Fort
Worth airport (center) and its four surrounding
corner posts.
18
Tabular form with alerting thresholds Tactical
Decision Aid for Terminal (USA)

• For each corner post and time projection...
• Time series with appropriate color.
• allows decision makers to quickly assess the
  current and future capacity of each corner post.
  Decision makers can then efficiently plan and
  direct traffic flow.

In this example, the BYP corner post at Fort
Worth is showing a high probability of
Thunderstorms in the 19-20z timeframe.
19
Use of internet

• AMIDS
• Facilitate sharing of information between
  different user groups
• SMS

20
Aerodrome area

• 5 km range

21
Effect of weather on Arrivals07L ILS Approach
22
Effect of weather on Departures

• DEP Flow Control

23
Terminal Area definition

• Based on IATA (ATM Implementation Roadmap Short
  and Medium Term (release version 1.0 2004-10-15)
• The Terminal Area is defined as that portion of
  the airspace within the proximity of a controlled
  aerodrome within which arriving and departing
  aircraft are managed to provide separation,
  assurance, appropriate arrival spacing,
  appropriate departure spacing and final approach
  sequencing.

24
Workplan

• Briefing to user groups
• User consultation
• Perception of gaps in the current service
• Seek inputs, comments and requirements
• Perform gap analysis
• Current ICAO standards and recommended practices
• Current activities related to terminal area
• Existing meteorological applications
• Current and future capabilities ( in space and
  time)
• review and analyse data
• Report to AMOS Study Group meeting Apr 2008

25
Thank you