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Water Resources Development Commission (HB 2661) Water Supply

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Water Resources Development Commission (HB 2661) Water Supply & Demand Working Group Water Supply Sub Committee Major Existing Supply Data and Studies – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Water Resources Development Commission (HB 2661) Water Supply


1
Water Resources Development Commission (HB
2661)Water Supply Demand Working Group
Water Supply Sub Committee Major Existing
Supply Data and Studies
  • Wednesday, January 5, 2011

2
Existing Supply Data and Studies
  • Demand and Supply Assessments for Phoenix, Tucson
    and Prescott AMAs (ADWR, 2010)
  • Water Use Data for Pinal AMA and Santa Cruz AMAs
    (ADWR, 2009)
  • Water Use Data for GW Basins outside of AMAs
    (ADWR, 2008 and USGS, 2009)

3
  • Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand
    Study (Reclamation/CR Basin States, in Draft)
  • North Central Arizona Water Supply Study Report
    of Findings (Reclamation, 2006)
  • Augmentation Alternatives for the Sierra Vista
    Sub-watershed, Arizona, Appraisal Report
    (Reclamation, 2007)
  • Central Yavapai Highlands Water Resources
    Management Study (Reclamation, 2009)

4
Existing Supply Data and StudiesVulnerability/
Sustainability Issues
  • Water Level Change Analysis for Arizona Water
    Atlas Vol. 9 (ADWR, in Draft)
  • Recent Variability in Reservoir Levels and
    Historic Changes in Precipitation from Arizona
    Water Atlas Vol. 1 (ADWR, 2010 revised)
  • Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and
    Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9 (ADWR, in
    Draft)
  • Vulnerability assessment of climate-induced water
    shortage in Phoenix (Gober and Kirkwood, 2009)

5
Demand and Supply Assessments for Phoenix, Tucson
and Prescott AMAs
  • Historical Water Demand and Supply Water
    Characteristics for 1985-2006
  • Multiple Demand and Supply Projections out to 2025

6
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7
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8
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9
Water Use Data for Pinal and Santa Cruz AMAs
  • Historical Water Demand and Supply Water
    Characteristics for 1985-2006
  • Assessment Reports in Draft

10
January 2009 version subject to change
11
January 2009 version subject to change
12
Water Use Data for GW Basins outside of AMAs
  • GW Withdrawals (USGS, 2009) for 1991-2007
  • SW Diversions (ADWR, 2008) for 1991-2007
  • Effluent Demand data from 13 basins c. 2005
    (ADWR, 2009)

Sector Basins with Data
Municipal 46
Agricultural 26
Industrial 27
Sector Basins with Data
Municipal 16
Agricultural 15
Industrial 8
13
Groundwater Withdrawn for Municipal Demand 46 GW
Basins with Data
14
Surface Water Diverted for Agricultural
Demand 15 GW Basins with Data
15
Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand
Study (Reclamation/CR Basin States, in Draft)
  • Define current and future imbalances in water
    supply and demand (2010-2060)
  • Geographic Scope
  • Current Colorado River Contractors
  • Mainstem
  • Central Arizona
  • Other Rural Areas
  • North Central Arizona
  • Central Yavapai Highlands
  • Upper San Pedro

16
Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study
  • Unmet Demand
  • Demand (Locally Available Supplies)
  • Locally Available Supplies have been estimated
    for each of the areas of interest
  • Mainstem Current Colorado River Entitlement
  • Central Arizona AMA Assessment Data
  • Other Rural Areas Data from Reclamation Studies

17
Water Level Change Analysis for Arizona Water
Atlas Vol. 9 (ADWR, in Draft)
  • Statistical data on groundwater level changes
    from the late 1980s/early 1990s to the mid to
    late 2000s
  • Water level change statistics compiled for each
    groundwater basin and subbasin in the state
  • Accompanying map shows water level changes
    (positive, negative, or zero) over time period

18
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19
Summary of Statewide GW Level Changes
Count of Positive WL Changes 1513
Mean Positive WL Change 25.1 (Feet)
Mean Positive WL Change Rate 1.5 (Feet/year)
Median Positive WL Change 12.2 (Feet)

Count of Negative WL Changes 2842
Mean Negative WL Change -23.8 (Feet)
Mean Negative WL Change Rate -1.4 (Feet/year)
Median Negative WL Change -17.4 (Feet)

Count of All WL Changes 4396
Mean Of All WL Changes -6.7 (Feet)
Median Of All WL Changes -4.7 (Feet)
20
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22
Recent Variability in Reservoir Levels and
Historic Changes in Precipitation from Arizona
Water Atlas Vol. 1
  • Reservoir Storage Volumes on Colorado,
    Salt/Verde, and Gila Rivers (1980-2008)

23
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24
Recent Variability in Reservoir Levels and
Historic Changes in Precipitation from Arizona
Water Atlas Vol. 1
  • Temperature and Precipitation Data by Planning
    Area (1930-2002) (non-AMAs)

25
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26
Recent Variability in Reservoir Levels and
Historic Changes in Precipitation from Arizona
Water Atlas Vol. 1
  • Winter Precipitation Departures from Average
    (1000-1988)
  • Woodhouse et al. (2010) argue that the
    mid12th-century drought, whose severity and
    duration exceeded anything in the historical
    record, can be used to exemplify the severe
    droughts that may occur in the future

27
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28
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and
Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9 (ADWR, in
Draft)
  • Categories
  • Physical Supply Constraints
  • Current Demand Exceeds Supply
  • Sensitivity to Extended Drought or Shortage
  • Legal Considerations
  • Environmental Impacts

29
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and
Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9
  • A) Physical Supply Constraints
  • A1 Dependency on non-renewable supply
  • A2 Groundwater is geologically limited
  • A3 Declining water levels in demand centers
  • A4 Water Budget Deficit or Water Deficit
    Assessment
  • A5 Insufficient infrastructure (current)
  • A6 Regional water quality exceedences
  • A7 Contamination restricts use as drinking
    water supplies
  • A8 Groundwater data needs

30
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and
Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9
  • B) Current Demand Exceeds Supply
  • B1 Current high rate of growth
  • B2 Meeting current demand has been identified
    as a problem
  • B3 Large number of inadequacy determinations
    (outside AMAs all reasons)
  • B4 Lack of a regional or local water resource
    management authority
  • B5 Demand data are lacking in any given sector
    (Environment, MI or Agriculture)

31
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and
Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9
  • C) Sensitivity to Extended Drought or Shortage
  • C1 Dependency on surface water or drought
    sensitive groundwater
  • C2 Drought-caused supply problems in the past
  • C3 Insufficient long-term storage (dams,
    recharge)
  • C4 Weak Drought Preparedness (Community Water
    System Drought Plan Evaluation)
  • C5 Historic drought trends/model predictions
    show climate impacts

32
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and
Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9
  • D) Legal Considerations
  • D1 Low priority Colorado River rights
  • D2 Groundwater Transportation
  • D3 Unquantified Federal Reserved Right Claims
  • D4 Endangered species habitat impacts access
    to supply

33
Vulnerability Assessment Categories, Criteria and
Metrics for Arizona Water Atlas Vol. 9
  • E) Environmental Values
  • E1 Presence of a perennial/intermittent
    stream in the basin
  • E2 Potential for pumping to impact stream
  • E3 Instream Flow rights
  • E4 Subsidence (active or potential)
  • E5 Impaired reaches affect use for environment
  • E6 Environmental water needs identified as an
    issue
  • E7 Unknown vulnerability (It is unknown what
    the impacts of other sectors demand will be on
    the environment in a basin)

34
Vulnerability Assessment of Climate-Induced Water
Shortage in Phoenix (Gober and Kirkwood, 2009)
  • Published in Proceedings of the National Academy
    of Sciences
  • Uses a water-balance simulation model to assess
    the vulnerability to long-term water shortage
  • Considers runoff scenarios for the Salt/Verde
    system (19 to 123 of historical mean) and
    mainstream of the Colorado River (61 to 118)
  • Considered growth limits, land-use change and
    groundwater management strategies

35
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36
Vulnerability Assessment of Climate-Induced Water
Shortage in Phoenix (Gober and Kirkwood, 2009)
  • Results and Conclusions
  • Wide range of uncertainty about how much water
    will be available for from the Colorado and
    Salt/Verde systems
  • Designing a system to supply enough water for
    current consumption rates in the most pessimistic
    climate change scenarios would be very expensive
    and perhaps, physically impossible
  • Designing a system for a best guess case could
    leave vulnerable to water shortage with little
    time to adapt.
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