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Approaches to a VULNERABILITY Assessment

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Approaches to a VULNERABILITY Assessment Sylvia Prieler May 26, 2004 Land Use Project IIASA Vulnerability approach Define scope Qualitative - CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Approaches to a VULNERABILITY Assessment


1
Approaches to aVULNERABILITY Assessment
  • Sylvia Prieler
  • May 26, 2004
  • Land Use Project
  • IIASA

2
Vulnerability approach
  1. Define scope
  2. Qualitative - CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK general
    case specific
  3. Quantitative a) Determine INDICATORs b)
    Methodology
  4. Strategies to reduce vulnerability

Climatic variability - impact on agricultural
production vulnerability of the people
Where are people most vulnerable to climatic
variability and why?
3
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Qualitative
4
Key issues in CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Qualitative
Climate variability
Agric. Prod. variability
LAND
People rural/urban
WATER
ECONOMY
Policy INSITUTIONS
5
People - URBANIZATION
Qualitative
  • Surplus rural laborestimates are 30 or 120-150
    mio.
  • Income disparity between rural and urban
    areasper capita annual disposable income
    factor 2.2 (1994 and 2000)

MIGRATION to urban areas
Population in 2001 Rural 796 mio.
(62) Urban 481 mio. (38)
6
People - URBANIZATION
Qualitative
  • Government promotes urbanization
  • WTO membership
  • Future increasing urbanization Scenarios by
    2030 at 55 to over 60
  • Challenge
  • loss of cultivated landgood arable land farmers
    loose their farmland (estimates at 1.5 mio. every
    year in last decade)ratio cultiv. land / rural
    labor is decreasing
  • Increasing water demand of urban household

7
INDICATORS
Quantitative
  • Proxy indicators for describing agricultural
    production variability
  • aridity index length of growing period
  • rainfed potential grain production
  • actual grain productiona) rainfed b) irrigated

8
INDICATORS
Quantitative
9
INDICATORS - Methodology
Quantitative
  • Quantify by ranking across the country
  • Use threshold given by certain sustainability
    indicatorscultiv. land / capita (0.4ha/capita)
  • GIS overlay techniquesformulate relevant
    questionsLGP lt 180 LGP CV gt 5 irrig.share
    lt 60 .Where are these areas?How many people
    are affected by such conditions?

10
INDICATORS - Methodology
Quantitative
Distribution of ARIDITY INDEX (average climatic
conditions)
Population living in areas classified as Semiarid
Environments (0.2ltP/ ET0lt0.5)
11
THANK YOU
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