Title: Wind power variation: a highly variable, unreliable and unpredictable source of energy
1Wind power variation a highly variable,
unreliableand unpredictable source of energy
- Facts and statistics
- from the largest wind generator
- in Germany E-ON
2Power variation - per month distributed by E-ON
3E-ON wind power variation over the year
(theoritical max 7.558 MW)
Installed 7558 MW
Daily max 6234 MW
Daily min 8 MW
Installed capacity 33.200MW including wind 7.558
MW (23) Production 271.300 MWh includ. wind
11.300 MWh (4,16)
4Delivered wind power details of variation per 15
min
Gradient 1000 MW/h
57500 MW
gt ½ Power 5,1 of the time 2,7 weeks
gt ¼ Puissance 25 of the time 13 weeks
18,5
6Forecasting of wind power is hazardous
January windy season
Max 80
Min 3
Accuracy of prediction from -50 to 100
7Sensitivity of windmills to grid stability
and Incapacity of the grid to face windmill
output variations
Expansion of wind energy in Germany is not
possible without a European-wide
cooperation, because electrical grids in
neighboring countries are affected by the
instability of wind energy production in
Germany. Example Nov 4th 2006, European-wide
electrical blackout (wind instability involved).
8Congestion of high voltage lines in Germany
9How many conventional plants are replaced by wind
mills ?
Max 10 !!!
10The cost of wind produced electricity in Germany
- Cost of wind energy production in Germany
- 2,7 billion for 26.000 MWh produced 103 /MWh
- Compare with the cost of nuclear power produced
in France - Baseload ? 26
- 7000h/yr ? 32
- 5000h/yr ? 45
- 3000h/yr ? 68
11Wind energyproduction in France
1500 MW
737 MW
Production 2006 985 GWh, efficiency 20
05
06
12Wind energy in France a good investment?For
whom?
- On-land windmills
- year 1 to 10 82 /MWh
- year 10 to 15 82 /MWh if less than 2400
h/yr - 82 to 68 from 2400 to 2800 h/yr
- 82 to 28 from 2800 to 3600 h/yr
- 28 above 3600 h/yr
- Outre-mer 110 /Mwh
- Off-shore
- year 1 to 10 130 /MWh
- year 10 to 20 130 /MWh if less than 2800
h/yr - 130 to 90 from 2800 to
3200 h/yr - 130 to 30 from 3200 àt 3900 h/yr
- 30 above 3600 h/yr
- Tax credit on investment 40