A Conceptual Systemic Framework Proposal for Sustainable Technology Development: Incorporating Future Studies within a Co-Evolutionary Approach

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A Conceptual Systemic Framework Proposal for
Sustainable Technology Development
Incorporating Future Studies within a
Co-Evolutionary Approach

• by
• A. Idil Gaziulusoy, Ph.D. Candidate
• Co-author
• Dr. Carol Boyle
• The University of Auckland
• International Centre for
• Sustainability Engineering and Research

FEBRUARY 2007
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Introduction
SUSTAINABILITY
Global Meta-System
ENVIRONMENT
WHAT? conceptual priority society
operational priority environment WHEN?
long-term planning as operational context
widens the


length of time increases
SOCIETY
ECONOMY
Sustainability is a moving target (Hjorth
Bagheri, 2006).
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Introduction
TEMPORAL-SPATIAL FRAME
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Introduction
COMPLEXITY
Frog Science versus Bicycle Science
A crucial assumption of reductionism is that we
can break complex systems into parts and study
these in isolation (Linstone, 1999).
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CO-EVOLUTION
Introduction
ecosystems
COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
technology
market operations
animals
industry
companies
humans
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Sustainable Technology Development
EXTENTRADICAL
Solutions are needed that break existing trends
in current development processes. (Weaver,
Jansen, van Grootveld, van Spiegel, Vergragt,
2000)
Present technological paradigm
New technological paradigm
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Sustainable Technology Development
CONTEXTCO-EVOLVING
society
economy
Technological Paradigm
technology
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Sustainable Technology Development
CONTEXTCO-EVOLVING
Regulatory push/pull
Environmental
Cleff Rennings (1999) Rennings (2000)
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Sustainable Technology Development
CONTEXTCO-EVOLVING
Successful action depends on a combination of
advances in scientific understanding, appropriate
political programmes, social reforms and other
institutional changes, as well as on the scale
and direction of new investment. Organisational
and social innovations would always have to
accompany any technical innovations and some
would have to come first (Freeman, 1992)
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Incorporating Future Studies
RELEVANCE

• Planning for sustainable technology development
  should
• Have a long-term coverage
• Be able to address complexity
• Be able to deal with co-evolutionary change both
  as a result and as a cause
• Should allow continuous feedback, reassessment
  and adjustment to cope with dynamic
  characteristics and changing requirements of
  sustainability concept and
• Provide creative vision to guide the innovation
  path towards radical change.

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Incorporating Future Studies
RELEVANCE
Technology Development

Future Studies
Engineering
STD
Sustainable Development
Sustainability Science
Sustainability Engineering
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Incorporating Future Studies
BACKCASTING AS A META-TOOL

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Incorporating Future Studies
BACKCASTING AS A META-TOOL

• Backcasting is useful
• when the problem to be studied is complex
• many sectors and levels of society are involved
  
• when there is a need for major change since
  dominant trends are part of the problem and
• when the time horizon is long enough to allow
  considerable scope for deliberate choice
  (Dreborg, 1996)

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Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

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Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

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Incorporating Future Studies
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

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CONCLUSION

• Shift in the technological paradigm is needed
• Incorporating future studies into technology
  planning can facilitate this shift
• When planning for technologies co-evolutionary
  aspects of innovation should be considered
• Backcasting is promising as a normative and
  analytical meta-tool for planning within a
  co-evolutionary approach
• In a backcasting exercise policy development
  should cover the longest time span to overlook
  and link institutional, social/cultural,
  organisational and technological innovations.

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2007