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The Millennium Project a virtual participatory think tank dedicated to global futures research

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Title: The Millennium Project a virtual participatory think tank dedicated to global futures research Author: Jerome Last modified by: Elizabeth Florescu – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Millennium Project a virtual participatory think tank dedicated to global futures research


1
97 pages in print 3,800 pages in the CD
2
Table of Contents
  • Executive summary
  • Chapter 1 Fifteen Global Challenges
  • Chapter 2 Global SOFI
  • Chapter 3 National SOFIs
  • Chapter 4 Future Ethical Issues
  • Chapter 5 Nanotech Preventing downsides
  • Chapter 6 Environmental Security
  • Chapter 7 Sustainable Development Index
  • CD-ROM of 3,800 Pages

3
2005 SOFs CD Section
  • Executive Summary (11 pages)
  • 1. Global Challenges (790 pages)
  • 2. State of the Future Index Section (Global SOFI
    (220) National SOFIs (33) Global Challenges
    Assessment (94))
  • 3. Future Ethical Issues (80 pages)
  • 4. Global Scenarios (Normative to the Year 2050
    (18) Exploratory (40) Very Long-Range
    Scenarios1,000 years (23) Counterterrorism
    (40) ST 2025 Global Scenarios (19) Middle East
    Peace Scenarios (90)
  • 5. Science and Technology (Future ST Management
    and Policy Issues (400) Nanotechnology Future
    Military Environmental Health Considerations (21)
  • 6. Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
  • 7. World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)
  • 8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable
    Development (Measuring SD (59) Quality and
    Sustainability of Life Indicators (9)
    Partnership for SD (48)
  • 9. Environmental Security (510 pages) (Emerging
    ES Issues ES Emerging International
    Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy
    Considerations UN Doctrine for Managing
    Environmental Issues in Military Actions
    Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the
    International Criminal Court (ICC)UN
    Perspectives ES and Potential Military
    Requirements)
  • 10. Factors Required for Successful
    Implementation of Futures Research in
    Decisionmaking (55 pages)

4
Appendices
  • Appendix A Millennium Project Participants
    (affiliation/country)
  • Appendix B State of the Future Index Section
  • Appendix C Global Ethics
  • Appendix D Global Scenarios
  • Appendix E Science and Technology
  • Appendix F Global Goals for The Year 2050
  • Appendix G World Leaders on Global Challenges
  • Appendix H Measuring Promoting Sustainable
    Development
  • Appendix I Environmental Security Studies
  • Appendix J Factors Required for Successful
    Implementation of Futures Research in
    Decisionmaking
  • Appendix K Annotated Bibliography of About 600
    Scenario Sets
  • Appendix L Publications of the Millennium
    Project
  • Acronyms and Abbreviations

5
Highlights
  • Organized crime is more than twice that of all
    military budgets worldwide
  • Internet connects 1 billion people - 15 of the
    World
  • 60 of the environmental life support system is
    gone or unsustainable
  • 24-7 ubiquitous computing accelerates
    decisionmaking
  • IQ as competitive advantage in the knowledge
    economy
  • Indo/Chinas hightech/low wage forces rest of
    Third World to re-think trade-lead growth
    strategies
  • 500 environmental agreement faster implications
    Chart on Page 87 rising global environmental
    consciousness
  • Nanotech health/environmental impacts rapidly
    being assessed.

6
The Future will be more than most people think
  • The rate of change over the last 25 years ago,
    will appear slow compared to the next 15 years.
  • Compare last 25 years no PCs, WWW, mobile
    phones, AIDS, Cold War with next NIBCtechs,
    social self-organization, global brain,
    conscious-technology
  • Failure of imagination, losing opportunities

7
Examples of some future ethical issues
  • Do we have a right to clone ourselves?
  • Do parents have the right to create genetically
    altered designer babies?
  • Should there be two standards one for the
    technologically altered and another for the
    naturals?

8
Values underlying such issues may change over time
  • A Delphi panel of over 400 selected by the 25
    Nodes of the Millennium Project for their
    scholarship and/or interest in future ethical
    issues.
  • The panel rated which values were likely to
    increase and decrease around the world over the
    next 50 years/

9
Values likely to decrease over the next 50 years
  • Life is a divine unalterable gift.
  • Economic progress is the most reliable path to
    human happiness.
  • The family in all its forms is the foundation of
    social values.
  • Human rights should always prevail over the
    rights of other living and non-living things.

10
Values likely to increase over the next 50 years
  • Harmony with nature is more important than
    economic progress.
  • Protection of the environment and biodiversity
    should be considered in any policy.
  • The rights of women and children are
    uninfringeable and fundamental for a healthy
    society.
  • World interests should prevail over nation-state
    interests.
  • Human space migration is part of human evolution.
  • Any artificial form of life intelligent enough to
    request rights should be given these rights and
    be treated with the same respect as humans

11
Millennium Project Global Challenges Assessment
1996-97
15 Issues with 131 Actions
182 Developments
1999-2005
  • Global Challenges
  • General description
  • Regional views
  • Actions
  • Indicators

15 Challenges with 213 Actions
1998-99

Distilled Into
1997-98
15 Opportunities with 213 Actions
180 Developments
2000-2005
Global State of the Future Index (SOFI) National
SOFIs ( 8 countries of the Americas)
12
15 Global Challenges
  • Sustainable Development
  • Water
  • Population and Resources
  • Democratization
  • Global, Long-Term Policymaking
  • Globalization of Information Technology
  • Rich-Poor Gap
  • 8. Changing disease threats
  • 9. Decision-Making Capacities
  • 10. Peace Conflict
  • 11. Improving Womens Status
  • 12. Transnational Crime
  • 13. Energy Demands
  • 14. Science Technology
  • 15. Global Ethics

13
SOFI Analysis
  • Why did the SOFI grow?
  • GDP per capita grew
  • Calories per capita increased
  • Life expectancy grew
  • Literacy grew
  • Infant Mortality dropped
  • Access to Fresh Water improved
  • Access to Health Care improved
  • School Enrollment Improved
  • What held the SOFI back?
  • Industrial CO2 emissions grew
  • Unemployment moved increased
  • Forest Lands dropped
  • Rich Poor Gap grew
  • AIDs Deaths grew
  • Developing Country Debt increased
  • Terrorist Attacks

14
Environmental security is environmental
viability for life support with three
sub-elements
  • Preventing or repairing military damage to the
    environment
  • Preventing or responding to environmentally
    caused conflicts
  • Protecting the environment due to the moral value
    of the environment itself

15
UN EU is taking initiatives in environmental
management
  • UN Reform Report Stresses Environmental Issues
  • UN Report Recommends Basis for Global Security
    Consensus
  • UN to Help Tackle Iraq Pollution
  • UN Conference On Small Island States and Climate
    Change
  • UN Conference Water for Food and Ecosystems
  • Additional Environmental Security Role for the UN
    Security Council
  • EU Environment Ministers Propose post-Kyoto
    Protocol Climate Policies
  • EU Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme active
    on January 1, 2005
  • EU to Ban the use of Cadmium in Batteries
  • UK Cooperation with India and Others on the
    Environment and Sust. Dev.
  • Conference on Environment, Security and
    Sustainable Development in The Hague
  • European Parliament Resolution to Protect Whales
    From Sonar
  • OECD Environment Ministers Call for more
    Ambitious Policies
  • Kyoto Protocol came into force in February 2005
  • Clean Air for Europe Initiative to Limit Air
    Pollution
  • Stockholm Convention on POPs to be Expanded

16
Mini Nanotechnology Two-Round Delphi Study
  • What are potential military uses and their
    possible health hazards and environmental
    impacts? between now and 2010 and between 2010
    and 2025?
  • What do we have to know to reduce or prevent
    these potential problems?
  • What are general research priorities to produce
    the relevant knowledge to improve future
    prospects with Nanotech?

17
... is a new kind of think tank
The Millennium Project
18
It is Global...
  • Geographically
  • Institutionally
  • Disciplinarily
  • Research focus

19
Millennium Project
May become a TransInstitution
20
Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of
individuals and institutions that connect global
and local views in
  • Nodes identify participants, translate
    questionnaires and reports, and conduct
    interviews, special research, workshops,
    symposiums, and advanced training.

21
Millennium Project Nodes Memorandum of
Understands with
Universities     Prague     London     Rome    
Sao Paulo     Cairo     Helsinki     Tehran    
Kodaikanal (India) NGOs     Venezuela (WFS
chapter)     Mexico (new NGO as Node)    Kuwait
(non-profit research institute) Korea
(futures organization)     Paris (futurist
network)
  • Government Institutions    Russian Academy of
    Natural Sciences     Chinese Academy of Natural
    Sciences     Chinese Academy of Social
    Sciences     Slovakian Academy of
    Sciences Private Companies    Tokyo
    (aerospace)     Berlin (futures planning)    
    Buenos Aires (futures planning)     Silicon
    Valley (USA) (venture capital)     New Delhi
    (futures, strategy planning)

22
Relationship of the UNU, AC/UNU, and the
Millennium Project
  • United Nations University (UNU) is the principal
    academic research organ of the UN, headquartered
    in Tokyo.
  • The American Council for the UNU (AC/UNU) created
    in 1975 as U.S. NGO as the point of contact
    between Americans and the UNU.
  • The Millennium Project operates under the
    auspices of the AC/UNU.

23
Previous Sponsors over past 10 years
  • Corporations
  • Applied Materials
  • Deloitte Touche LLP
  • Ford Motor Company
  • General Motors
  • Hughes Space and Communications
  • Monsanto Company
  • Motorola Corporation
  • Pioneer Hi-Bred International
  • Shell International
  • Foundations
  • Alan F. Kay Hazel Henderson Foundation for
    Social Innovation
  • Amana-Kay
  • Foundation for Social Innovation
  • Foundation for the Future
  • Government Organizations
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Army
    Environmental Policy Institute
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
  • Kuwait Oil Company
  • UN Organizations
  • UNDP
  • UNESCO
  • United Nations University

24
Current Activities
  • Global Energy Scenarios
  • Futures Research Methodology - V 3.0
  • Monthly reports of international environmental
    security issues
  • Futures Dictionary/Encyclopedia
  • Up-dating Annotated Scenario Bibliography
  • Middle East Peace Scenarios dissemination and
    discussions
  • National State of the Future Indexes (SOFIs)
  • Updating Improving Global Challenges and
    publish 2006 SOF
  • Women Issues Organizations and their Research
  • Experiments with Collaborative Software

25
Futures Research Methodology V2.0
  • 1. Introduction Overview 15. Simulation and
    Games
  • 2. Environmental Scanning 16. Genius
    Forecasting, Vision, and Int.
  • 3. Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting
  • 4. Futures Wheel 18. ST Road Mapping
  • 5. Trend Impact Analysis 19. Field Anomaly
    Relaxation (FAR)
  • 6. Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for
    Technology Foresight
  • 7. Structural Analysis 21. Agent Modeling
  • 8. Systems Perspectives 22. SOFI
  • 9. Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software
  • 10. Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple
    Perspective Concept
  • 11. Technological Sequence Analysis 25. Tool Box
    for Scenario Planning
  • 12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis 26.
    Causal Layered Analysis
  • 13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios 27.
    Integration, Comparisons, and
  • 14. Participatory Methods Frontiers of
    Futures Research Methods

26
  • The Millennium Project
  • WWW.STATEOFTHEFUTURE.ORG
  • Jglenn_at_igc.org
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