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Gas Emissions and the Effects on Global Climate Change, Ozone Depletion and Air Pollution

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LCR Team Gas Emissions and the Effects on Global Climate Change, Ozone Depletion and Air Pollution Robert T. Watson Chief Scientist & Director, ESSD. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Gas Emissions and the Effects on Global Climate Change, Ozone Depletion and Air Pollution


1
Gas Emissions and the Effects on Global Climate
Change, Ozone Depletion and Air Pollution
Robert T. Watson Chief Scientist Director,
ESSD. World Bank and Chair, IPCC November 30,
2000 - 100 p.m. - MC2-850
2
The Challenge of Sustainable Development
  • alleviate poverty for the 1.3 billion people who
    live on less than 1 per day and the 3 billion
    people who live on less than 2 per day
  • provide adequate food, especially for the 800
    million people who are malnourished today, thus
    requiring food production to double in the next
    35 years
  • provide clean water for the 1.3 billion people
    who live without clean water and provide
    sanitation for the 2 billion people who live
    without sanitation
  • provide energy for the 2 billion people who live
    without electricity
  • improve a healthy environment for the 1.4 billion
    people who are exposed to dangerous levels of
    outdoor pollution and the even larger number
    exposed to dangerous levels of indoor air
    pollution
  • provide safe shelter for those that live in areas
    susceptible to civil strife due to environmental
    degradation and those vulnerable to natural
    disasters

3
State of the Environment
  • Air quality is unacceptable in many developing
    country mega cities, resulting in respiratory
    illnesses and premature death
  • Acid deposition remains a problem in many
    developing countries, adversely affecting
    ecological systems
  • The Earths climate is changing due to human
    activities, threatening socio-economic sectors,
    ecological systems and human health
  • Stratospheric ozone depletion, which leads to
    increased UV-B and adverse health affects, has
    peaked, but recovery will take at least 50 years
  • Biological diversity at the genetic, species and
    ecosystem level is being lost at an unprecedented
    rate, threatening critical ecosystem goods and
    services

4
Linkages Among Food Production and Global
Environmental Issues
5
Linkages Among Environmental Issues
6
Poverty is Multi-Dimensional
7
Underlying Causes of Change
  • Increased demand for resources, e.g., biological
    and energy, as a result of economic growth and
    population growth
  • Subsidies that lead to inefficient use of
    resources (e.g., water)
  • Failure to internalize environmental
    extranalities into the market (e.g., health care
    costs into the price of coal)
  • Failure of economic markets to recognize the true
    value of natural resources (e.g., global goods
    and services)
  • Failure to appropriate the global values of
    natural resources to the local level
  • Institutional and government failures to regulate
    or implement the regulations of the use of
    biological resources and energy (e.g., collapse
    of fisheries around the world)
  • Inappropriate use of technologies (e.g., fossil
    energy)
  • Failure of people to consider the long-term
    consequences of their actions (change in human
    values)

8
Perverse Subsidies
Annual Subsidies Perverse Subsidies US
billion US billion Agricultural 575 460 Fossil
fuels 145 110 Road transportation 917 639 Water 23
3 219 Fisheries 22 22 Forestry 6 6 Totals 1,898 1
,456 Source Myers, 1997
9
Categories of Economic Values Attributed to
Environmental Assets
10
Atmospheric Ozone
11
Ozone Science, Assessments and Policy How Have
They Interacted?
12
Effect of the International Agreements
on Ozone-Depleting Stratospheric Chlorine/Bromine
13
TOMS and Ground-based Zonal Trends 1/79 to 12/97
14
Global Temperature Observations Annual averages
plus long-term trends, to July 1999
The Met.Office Hadley Centre for Climate
Prediction and Research
15
Precipitation Trends () per Decade
(1900-1994) Green increasing / Brown
decreasing
16
Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have
Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times
Carbon dioxide 33 rise
Methane 100 rise
The MetOffice Hadley Center for Climate
Prediction and Research
17
Radiative Forcing
Estimates of the globally and annually averaged
anthropogenic radiative forcing (in Wm-2) due to
changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and
aerosols from pre-industrial times to the present
(1992) and to natural changes in solar output
from 1850 to the present. Source IPCC. Climate
Change 1995 - The Science of Climate Change. WGI.
1996.
18
Schematic Illustration of SRES Scenarios
19
Scenarios
a 1990 values include non-commercial energy
consistent with IPCC WGII SAR (Energy Primer) but
with SRES accounting conventions. Note that ASF,
MiniCam, and IMAGE scenarios do not consider
non-commercial renewable energy. Hence, these
scenarios report lower energy use.
20
Global CO2 Emissions from Energy Industry
Source IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working
Group III. Cambridge.
21
Scenarios
22
Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions (MtS)
Source IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working
Group III. Cambridge.
23
Projected Change in Global Mean Surface
Temperature from Models using the SRES Emissions
Scenarios
24
The 1997/98 El Niño Strongest on Record
As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature
(relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the
eastern tropical Pacific off Peru
25
Potential Climate Change Impacts
26
Balanced Approach to Policymaking
  • Command and Control Strategies
  • Market-based Interventions
  • Voluntary Agreements

27
Enabling Conditions for Effective Policy Change
  • Proper Incentive Systems
  • Strong Legal Frameworks
  • Public Participation
  • Cooperation with the Private Sector
  • Technological Capacity
  • Financial and Institutional Capacity
  • Information for Assessment and Monitoring

28
The Policy Matrix
Source World Bank. 1997. Five Years after Rio
Innovations in Environmental Policy. Washington,
D.C.
29
Mitigation Options
  • Supply Side
  • Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas)
  • Increased power plant efficiency (30 to 60)
  • Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.)
  • Carbon dioxide sequestration
  • Nuclear power
  • Demand Side
  • Transportation
  • Commercial and residential buildings
  • Industry
  • Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
  • Afforestation, Reforestation and slowing
    Deforestation
  • Improved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland
    Management
  • Agroforestry
  • Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions

30
Policy Instruments
  • Policies, which may need regional or
    international agreement, include
  • Energy pricing strategies and taxes
  • Removing subsidies that increase GHG emissions
  • Internalizing environmental extranalities
  • Tradable emissions permits-- domestic and global
  • Voluntary programs
  • Regulatory programs including energy-efficiency
    standards
  • Incentives for use of new technologies during
    market build-up
  • Education and training such as product advisories
    and labels
  • Accelerated development of technologies as well
    as understanding the barriers to diffusion into
    the marketplace requires intensified RD by
    governments and the private sector

31
Fuel For Thought Strategy for The Year 2000
32
Energy Supply Sustained Growth Scenario
Source Shell International Limited.
33
Co-Benefits - Mitigation
  • Co-benefits can lower the cost of climate change
    mitigation
  • Identify technologies, practices and policies
    that can simultaneously address local and
    regional environmental issues and climate change
  • energy sector
  • indoor and outdoor air quality
  • regional acid deposition
  • transportation sector
  • outdoor air pollution
  • traffic congestion
  • agriculture and forestry
  • soil fertility
  • biodiversity and related ecological goods and
    services

34
Local and Regional Impacts
Magnitudes and Costs of Impacts Particulates Pr
emature death and excess morbidity. 100s
millions to billions per year in large cities.
(An average of 10 of the annual city incomes of
Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.) E.Asia,
S.Asia, E.Europe, Russia, L.America Lead Excess
morbidity and loss of IQ points. Up to 100
million per year in large cities. E.Asia,
S.Asia, E.Europe, Russia, L.America. Sulfur Loc
al excess morbidity local impacts up to 50
million (?) per year in large cities. Regional
acidification quantification of regional
impacts more difficult than local impacts, due to
lack of adequate dose-response data. E.Europe,
China/Korea/Japan, India. Other air (ozone, NOx,
CO, volatile hydrocarbons, toxic air
pollutants) Local excess morbidity some
toxic related premature mortality. Quantificati
on of impacts more difficult (lack of adequate
dose-response data) probable range.
35
Internalizing Local and Regional Externalities
Relative Costs of Abatement Particulates
Thermal power relatively in-expensive. Cleaner
fuels relatively in-expensive. Transporte
sector (e.g. improved traffic management, modal
shifts, vehicle fleet upgrade, vehicle moderniza
tion) reasonably in-expensive. Lead Cleaner
gasoline relatively in-expensive. Sulfur FGD
for coal-fired thermal power plants
relatively expensive. Others (ozone, NOx, CO,
volatile hydrocarbons, toxic air
pollutants) Abatement technologies and costs
vary. Some abatement is produced jointly with
the above improvements. Hydro-related
externalities Environmental and social RR costs
very site-specific.
36
Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP)
Source OECD Environmental data 1995 WRI China
tables 1995 Central Pollution Control Board,
Delhi. Ambient Air Quality Status and
Statistics, 1993 and 1994 Urban Air Pollution
in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992 EPA,
AIRS database.
37
Health Costs (TSP in China)
Source Clear Water, Blue Skies Chinas
Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.
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