IPCC AR5: Innovations and Cooperation among WGs SBSTA, 32nd session, 31 May to 9 June 2010, Bonn, Germany Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Christoph von Stechow - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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IPCC AR5: Innovations and Cooperation among WGs SBSTA, 32nd session, 31 May to 9 June 2010, Bonn, Germany Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Christoph von Stechow

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Title: IPCC AR5: Innovations and Cooperation among WGs SBSTA, 32nd session, 31 May to 9 June 2010, Bonn, Germany Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Christoph von Stechow


1
IPCC AR5 Innovations and Cooperation among WGs
SBSTA, 32nd session, 31 May to 9 June 2010,
Bonn, Germany Prof. Dr. Ottmar
Edenhofer Christoph von Stechow
johnthescone
2
Independent Review Set Up
  • On the request of IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri
    and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
  • Executed by InterAcademy Council (IAC).
  • Review of IPCC principles, procedures, management
    structures and the IPCC scenario process (honest
    broker role).
  • The report will be prepared for the IPCC Plenary
    in October 2010.

3
Table of Contents
  • WG I, II and III Innovations in AR5
  • Cooperation among Working Groups
  • Special Reports
  • SREX (WG I II)
  • SRREN (WG III)

4
AR5 Innovation Considering Risk/Uncertainty in
all WGs
4
Extreme events, Sea level rise
  • WG III
  • WG I
  • WG II
  • Extreme events
  • Sea level rise
  • Marginal
  • mitigation costs

Iteration
  • D(1.5/2ºC/3ºC)
  • D(3ºC/4ºC)

Complete picture of impact and mitigation costs
for policy relevance
D(1.5/2º/3º), D(3º/4º) Policies
5
Table of Contents
  • WG I, II and III Innovations in AR5
  • WG I
  • WG II
  • WG III
  • Cooperation among Working Groups
  • Special Reports
  • SREX (WG I II)
  • SRREN (WG III)

6
WG I Science Gaps and Questions
6
  • Trends and rates of observed climate change Has
    climate change accelerated?
  • Large ice sheets in polar regions Is the
    Greenland ice sheet stable?
  • Irreversibilities and abrupt change in the
    climate system How robust and accurate is our
    understanding?
  • Clouds and aerosols and their feedbacks What is
    the forcing uncertainty associated with cloud and
    aerosol processes?
  • Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles Which
    carbon cycle feedbacks become relevant in the
    coming decades?
  • Near-term and long-term climate projections How
    reliable is decadal prediction, what are the
    uncertainties beyond 2100?
  • Climate phenomena across regions How do
    frequencies and amplitudes of monsoon, ENSO, and
    others change?

7
Table of Contents
  • WG I, II and III Innovations in AR5
  • WG I
  • WG II
  • WG III
  • Cooperation among Working Groups
  • Special Reports
  • SREX (WG I II)
  • SRREN (WG III)

8
WG II Major Themes
  • Framing to support good decisions, including
    information on risk
  • Better integration of climate science with
    climate impacts
  • Broader range of assessed impacts.
  • Climate change in the context of other stresses
  • Better treatment of extremes and disasters
  • Expanded treatment of adaptation
  • Better integration of adaptation, mitigation,
    and development at different
    regional scales
  • Human settlements, industry, and infrastructure

9
Major Sections or Superchapters
  • Part A GLOBAL SECTORAL ASPECTS
  • Context for the AR5
  • Natural and managed resources and systems, and
    their uses
  • Human settlements, industry, and infrastructure
  • Human health, well-being, and security
  • Adaptation
  • Multi-sector impacts, risks, vulnerabilities, and
    opportunities
  • Part B REGIONAL ASPECTS
  • With WG I and WG III input and collaboration

10
Table of Contents
  • WG I, II and III Innovations in AR5
  • WG I
  • WG II
  • WG III
  • Cooperation among Working Groups
  • Special Reports
  • SREX (WG I II)
  • SRREN (WG III)

11
11
AR5 WG III Outline
I Introduction
1. Introductory Chapter
2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment
of Climate Change Response Policies 3.
Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and
Methods 4. Sustainable Development and Equity
II Framing Issues
5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation 6.
Assessing Transformation Pathways 7. Energy
Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10.
Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other
Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements,
Infrastructure and Spatial Planning
III Pathways for Mitigating Climate
Change
13. International Cooperation Agreements and
Instruments 14. Regional Development and
Cooperation 15. National and Sub-national
Policies and Institutions 16. Cross-cutting
Investment and Finance Issues
IV Assessment of Policies, Institutions
and Finance
12
12
The Research Challenge of WG III
  • Low Stabilisation Scenarios which identify the
    technical and institutional requirements.
  • Exploring the costs, benefits and risks of all
    relevant mitigation options.
  • Identifying differential impacts and develop a
    classification of risks comprising tipping points
    in the natural environment and also in society.

13
13
Comprehensive Understanding of Solution Space
CO2(A)/CO2
CO2 / E
E / GDP
Pop
GDP / Pop
Ocean Acidification
Carbon cycle
Impacts


Radiative Forcing
Climate Change
14
14
Assessing the Solution Space
CO2 Capture at Plant (CCS)
Life-Style Change Technologies
Non-Fossil Energy
CO2(A)/CO2
CO2 / E
E / GDP
GDP / Pop
Pop
Ocean Acidification
Carbon cycle
Impacts
Carbon Management


Radiative Forcing
Climate Change
Adaptation
Agricultural Practices etc.
Radiation Management
15
Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive
Science Scope of options
Goal-setting by politics
Science
Data
1,5C Target
2C Target
such as impacts from excessive use of biomass or
geoengineering
Consideration of unintended side-effects
16
Table of Contents
  • WG I, II and III Innovations in AR5
  • Cooperation among Working Groups
  • Special Reports
  • SREX (WG I II)
  • SRREN (WG III)

17
17
Assessment Communities
Modified from Graphic by John Weyant (2009)?
18
18
IPCC Scenario Process
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
Integrated Assessment Models
Climate Models
19
19
IPCC Szenarienprozess
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
Integrated Assessment Models
Climate Models
20
20
IPCC Szenarienprozess
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
Integrated Assessment Models
Climate Models
21
21
IPCC Szenarienprozess
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
Integrated Assessment Models
Climate Models
22
22
IPCC Szenarienprozess
Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
Integrated Assessment Models
Climate Models
23
23
Jointly Organized Meetings/Workshops
  • Joint WGI / WGII Expert Meeting on Detection and
    Attribution related to Anthropogenic Climate
    Change (09/09)
  • Joint WGI / WGII Expert Meeting on Assessing and
    Combining Multi-Model Climate Projections (01/10)
  • Joint WG II / WG III Expert Meeting on Human
    Settlement and Infrastructure (postponed to early
    2011)
  • Joint WG II / WG III Workshop on Socioeconomic
    Scenarios for Climate Change Impact and Response
    Assessments (11/10)
  • Joint WGI / WGII Expert Meeting on Impacts of
    Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and
    Ecosystems (01/11)
  • Joint WGII / WGIII Expert Meeting on Economic
    Analysis, Costing Methods, and Ethics (03/11)

24
Table of Contents
  • WG I, II and III Innovations in AR5
  • Cooperation among Working Groups
  • Special Reports
  • SREX (WG I II)
  • SRREN (WG III)

25
SREX Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and
Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
26
Table of Contents
  • WG I, II and III Innovations in AR5
  • Cooperation among Working Groups
  • Special Reports
  • SREX (WG I II)
  • SRREN (WG III)

27
27
SRREN Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources
and Climate Change Mitigation
  • 1. Renewable Energy and Climate Change
  • 2. Bioenergy
  • 3. Direct Solar Energy
  • 4. Geothermal Energy
  • 5. Hydropower
  • 6. Ocean Energy
  • 7. Wind Energy
  • 8. Integration of Renewable Energy into
    Present and Future Energy Systems
  • 9. Renewable Energy in the Context of
    Sustainable Development
  • 10. Mitigation Potential and Costs
  • 11. Policy, Financing and Implementation
  • Technology Chapters

F
Luderer et al. (2009)
28
Final Remark
  • The IPCC is the honest broker between experts
    and decision makers in business, politics and
    civil society.
  • Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive!
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