What if the US does not win the war in Iraq ?

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What if the US does not win the war in Iraq ?

• Clément HAGENBACH
• Wednesday, February 14th

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What made me choose this topic ?

• 1) The dramatic situation in Iraq
• - a country plunged into chaos,
• almost into civil war
• - very worrying prospectives in terms of
  
• International Relations
• - the importance of a US failure (US as the
  
• great superpower)
• 2) La tentation de la défaite by Antoine
  Vitkine, Editions la Martiniere, 2006, Paris.
• The temptation of the defeat

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What if the US does not win the war in Iraq ?
a provocative question

• The US has
  already won the war
• - Saddam Huseins regime has been overthrown in
  2003
• - 30/01/2005 1st post-Saddam legislative
  elections
• President Jalal Talabani elected by the
  transitional National Assembly on 06/04/2005
• A democratic Iraqi Government, led by
  Nouri-al-Maliki (Prime Minister since
  22/04/2006).
• The US has
  already lost the war
• - No WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction)
• - Growing insecurity, Civil war in Baghdad,
  overall chaos
• - Since March 2003 from 30 000 (source Bush
  Administration) to 600 000 civilian Iraqi
  victims (source US and University of
• Baghdad Public Health specialists) .
  2006 34 000 civilian Iraqi victims
  (source UNO) .
• - 3 000 US GIs victims
• - Considerable cost
• - Disastrous US image in the World

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Who will seize the power once the Americans left ?

• Risk of total chaos, increasing violence
• 100 civilians killed every day in
  violence between members of different religious
  
• communities (source UN estimates)
• Parallel with the situation in Vietnam
• Parallel with the situation in Afghanistan (after
  USSR Armys retreat in 1989)

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3 main scenarios

• 1 US troops manage to stabilize the country
  before leaving, having formed efficient Military
  Police and Army forces to make Iraq safe
• ? probability VERY LOW (this is the
  President Bushs New Strategy)
• 2 Iraq remains into chaos until US troops
  leave the country. Once the US Army leaves, Iraq
  gets back to law and order
• ? probability LOW (importance of
  religious violence among Iraqi Groups)
• 3 Iraq remains into chaos even after US
  troops left, the bloodshed goes on. The radical
  islamists seize power as the only (political)
  force able to restore law and order, through a
  strict application of the islamic law (charia)
• ? probability RELATIVELY HIGH (this is
  the thesis of Antoine Vitkine in his book)

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Oil a major source of income for radical elements

• - Did water of the Gulf become suddenly very
  full of fish?
• Iraq crude oil production 2,2 millions
  barrels / day
• ? 1,5 million barrels/day exported
• ? 350 000 barrels/day sent in refineries,
  to be consumed
• inside Iraq
• ? 350 000 barrels/day sent abroad
  (Turkey, Syria, Iran)
• through smugglers networks
• - Smuggling turnover 4-5 billions US a year !
  (source
• Bahram Salih, Iraqi Vice-Prime Minister)
• 50 of this amount goes directly to the
  Insurrection !
• ? the main source of income for the Sunni
  Insurrection
• ? a major stake in the fight between Shia
  insurgents
• ? a major source of corruption within
  Iraq

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The seizure of the power by radical islamists in
Iraq, a major concern

• The good Back to law and order
• The bad Reduction of
  individual liberties
• Risk of spreading to Iraq neighbours
• Radical Al
  Qaeda islamists now rule a country ?

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Radical islamists ruling Iraq towards a new
Caliphate ?

• Risk of a mass destabilization within the
  region
• ? overthrow of authoritarian Arab regimes
  in the Kingdom of Saudi
• Arabia, in Pakistan, in Egypt, in
  Syria, in the Maghreb ?
• This risk is amplified by the likely US
  attitude back to the isolationist doctrine after
  the withdrawal of Iraq and Afghanistan.
• Supreme goal of islamic leaders carry out the
  unity of the
• 
  Umma, as written in the Quran

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The potential threats to international peace and
security that this new Caliphate could pose

• A massive swing of all countries whose
  inhabitants are mainly Muslims
• No more Nation-States within the Arab World (seen
  as a concept imported by European powers)
• A Sunni Caliphate a major concern for Iran and
  Chia minorities
• A vital threat regarding the survival of Israel
• An agressive behavior towards all westerners
• A 3rd oil shock ?
• Conflicts within Europe regarding the Muslim
  community ?

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Conclusion

• THIS IS NO REALITY !
• But
• Obviously, the future of Iraq must be a major
  concern for the international Community !

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Sources

• La tentation de la défaite, Antoine Vitkine,
  Editions La Martinière, Paris, 2006.
• www.iraqbodycount.org
• www.un.org Situation in Iraq.
• www.wikipedia.org Iraq War.
• www.whitehouse.gov
• www.lemonde.fr La nouvelle stratégie américaine
  en Iraq, January 11th 2007.
• www.figaro.fr Le pétrole finance la guerre
  civile en Irak, December 21st 2006.
• www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1962245,00.html
  Corruption the second insurgency costing
  4bn a year (Stuart Bowens report on the oil
  smuggling issue), December 2nd 2006. Stuart Bowen
  is the US Special Inspector General for Iraq
  Reconstruction.
• www.rfi.fr Les tribunaux islamiques, sur les
  décombres de lEtat, June 21st 2006.

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THANK YOUFOR YOUR ATTENTION !?