MPR February 100210

1
MPR February100210
2
Figure 1.1. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
Note. The uncertainty band does not take into
account the fact that there may be a lower bound
for the repo rate. The uncertainty band shows the
band within which the repo rate is expected to be
with a 50, 75 and 90 probability. Broken lines
represent the Riksbanks forecast.
Source The Riksbank
3
Figure 1.2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual
percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
Note.The uncertainty band shows the band within
which GDP growth is expected to be with a 50,
75 and 90 probability. Broken lines represent
the Riksbanks forecast.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
4
Figure 1.3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual
percentage change
Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within
which inflation is expected to be with a 50, 75
and 90 probability. Broken lines represent the
Riksbanks forecast.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
5
Figure 1.4. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual
percentage change
Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within
which inflation is expected to be with a 50, 75
and 90 probability. Broken lines represent the
Riksbanks forecast.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
6
Figure 1.5. Difference between interbank rates
and government bond rates (TED spread)Basis
points
Note. The spread is calculated as difference
between the three-month interbank rate and the
three-month treasury bill.
Sources Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
7
Figure 1.6. GDP-growth abroadAnnual percentage
change
Sources IMF and the Riksbank
Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbanks
forecast.
8
Figure 1.7. World Trade Monitor IndexIndex, 2000
100, seasonally adjusted data
Source Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
Analysis
9
Figure 1.8. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel
Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average.
Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot
prices.
Sources Intercontinental Exchange and the
Riksbank
10
Figure 1.9. Commodity pricesIndex 2000 100, USD
Source The Economist
11
Figure 1.10. Development for GDP in different
regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per
cent calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat,
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast.
12
Figure 1.11. Public sector net lendingPercentage
of GDP
Note. Striped bars represent forecasts. The
forecast for Sweden is the Riksbank's forecast,
while for other countries it is the OECD's
forecast, December 2009.
Sources OECD and the Riksbank
13
Figure 1.12. Comparison of recovery in Sweden,
the euro area and USAGDP-level, index 2007
quarter 4 100
Note. The quarter prior to the recession breaking
out in the USA 100. Broken lines represent the
Riksbank's forecast.
Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat,
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.
14
Figure 1.13. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index,
18.11.92 100
Source The Riksbank
Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts
are quarterly averages. Broken lines represent
the Riksbanks forecast.
15
Figure 1.14. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent
calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast.
16
Figure 1.15. Comparison of recovery following
various recessions, GDP SwedenIndex in the
quarter preceding the beginning of the recession
100
Note. Legends denote the quarter in which the
index 100. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast. X-axis relates to quarters.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
17
Figure 1.16. Households consumption, disposable
incomes and saving ratio Annual percentage
change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable
income
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the
Riksbanks forecast.
18
Figure 1.17. Households' fixed terms for
mortgagesPercentage of loan stock
Note. Refers to original fixed term. Variable
interest rate relates to loans with a fixed term
of up to three months.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
19
Figure 1.18. Swedish exports and world market for
Swedish exportsAnnual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Dots represent the Riksbank's forecast for
the whole year.
20
Figure 1.19. Gross fixed capital
formationQuarterly changes in per cent
calculated in annualised terms,
seasonally-adjusted data
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Seasonally adjusted by the Riksbank. Broken
lines represent the Riksbanks forecast.
21
Figure 1.20. GDP and employmentAnnual percentage
change, seasonally adjusted data
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast. Pre-2001 employment data has been
spliced by the Riksbank.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
22
Figure 1.21. Labour force and number of
employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the
Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast, 15-74 year.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
23
Figure 1.22. Employment rateEmployment as a
percentage of the population, 16-64 year,
seasonally-adjusted data
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast.
24
Figure 1.23. UnemploymentPercentage of the
labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the
Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast, 15-74 years.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
25
Figure 1.24. Actual and trend productivity growth
in the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage
change, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. Trend calculated using a Hodrick- Prescott
filter. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
26
Figure 1.25. Full utilisation of companies
resources, private service industriesProportion
of companies, per cent
Source NIER
27
Figure 1.26. GDP's deviation from HP trend and
Resource utilisation indicatorPer cent and
standard deviations
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
28
Figure 1.27. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation
from the HP trend
Note. These gaps should not necessarily be
interpreted as the Riksbank's overall assesment
of resource utilisation. Broken lines represent
the Riksbanks forecast.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
29
Figure 1.28. Nominal wages Annual percentage
change
Note. Refers to wages according to short-term
salaries statistics from 1993 and according to
wage and salary structure statistics previous to
1993. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast.
Sources National Mediation Office, Statistics
Sweden and the Riksbank
30
Figure 1.29. Unit labour costs for the economy
as a wholeAnnual percentage change, fixed
prices and per cent of disposable income
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines and striped bars represent the
Riksbanks forecast.
31
Figure 1.30. CPIAnnual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
32
Figure 1.31. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding
energyAnnual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate.
Broken lines represent the Riksbanks forecast.
33
Figure 1.32. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly
averages
Source The Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbanks
forecast.
34
Figure 1.33. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly
averages
Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an
average of the Riksbanks repo rate forecasts for
the coming year minus the inflation forecast
(CPIF) for the corresponding period. Broken lines
represent the Riksbanks forecast.
Source The Riksbank
35
Figure 2.1. Hourly labour costAnnual percentage
change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
36
Figure 2.2. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
Source The Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
37
Figure 2.3. CPIFAnnual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
38
Figure 2.4. Labour market gap (hours
worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
39
Figure 2.5. Hours worked and trendMillions of
hours per quarter, seasonally adjusted data
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The last two observations for hours worked
refer to the Riksbank's forecast.
40
Figure 2.6. Hours workedQuarterly changes in per
cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally
adjusted data
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
41
Figure 2.7. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
Source The Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
42
Figure 2.8. CPIFAnnual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
43
Figure 2.9. Exchange rate, TCWIndex, 18.11.1992
100
Source The Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
44
Figure 2.10. Labour market gap (hours
worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
45
Figure 2.11. CPIFAnnual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
46
Figure 2.12. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly
averages
Source The Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
47
Figure 2.13. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent,
quarterly averages
Source The Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
48
Figure 2.14. Labour market gap (hours
worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
49
Figure 2.15. CPIFAnnual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
50
Figure 3.1. Stock market movementsIndex,
4-1-1999 100
Source Reuters EcoWin
51
Figure 3.2. Government bonds in various euro
countries (difference compared to
Germany)Percentage points
Source Reuters EcoWin
Note. Government bonds with approximately 10
years left to maturity.
52
Figure 3.3. Policy ratesPer cent
Source Reuters EcoWin
53
Figure 3.4. Monetary policy expectations in
Sweden according to money market participants
Per cent
Note. Forward rates have been adjusted for risk
premiums and describe the expected overnight
rate. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
Sources Reuters Ecowin, TNS SIFO Prospera and
the Riksbank
54
Figure 3.5. International comparison between
central banks balance sheet totalsPercent of GDP
Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat,
Office for National Statistics, Statistics Sweden
and the respective central banks
55
Figure 3.6. Housing pricesAnnual percentage
change
Source Statistics Sweden
Note. Quarterly observations of property price
index and monthly observations of the mean value
of the purchase price coefficient (Purchase
price/Taxation value).
56
Figure 3.7. Money SupplyAnnual percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
57
Figure 3.8. Exchange ratesSEK per euro and dollar
Source Reuters EcoWin
58
Figure 3.9. Chinese export and importAnnual
precentage change
Source National Bureau of Statistics of China
59
Figure 3.10. Purchasing mangarer's indexIndex,
over 50 indicates growth
Note. Refers to manufacturing industry in the
United States and Sweden and weighted average of
service sector and manufacturing industry in the
euro area.
Sources Institute for Supply Management, Markit
Economics and Swedbank
60
Figure 3.11. ExportIndex, january 2006 100,
seasonally adjusted data
Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat
61
Figure 3.12. UnemploymentPercentage of the
labour force
Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat
62
Figure 3.13. Households confidence indicatorsNet
values
Source European Commission
63
Figure 3.14. HICP for the Euro areaAnnual
percentage change
Source Eurostat
64
Figure 3.15. The Economic Tendency
IndicatorIndex, mean 100
Source National Institute of Economic Research
65
Figure 3.16. Industrial production and the
production of servicesIndex, 2005 100,
seasonally adjusted data
Source Statistics Sweden
66
Figure 3.17. Assessments of stocks of finished
goodsSeasonally adjusted net values
Source National Institute of Economic Research
Note. Higher net figures entail greater
dissatisfaction with too high stocks.
67
Figure 3.18. Households' expectations for the
futureNet figures
Note. Unemployment is defined here as the
percentage of households that believe
unemployment will fall minus the percentage who
believe that unemployment will rise.
Source National Institute of Economic Research
68
Figure 3.19. Bank lending to companies and
householdsAnnual precentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
69
Figure 3.20. Capital utilisation in industryPer
cent, seasonally adjusted data
Sources National Institute of Economic Research
and Statistics Sweden
70
Figure 3.21. Foreign trade with goods in fixed
pricesIndex, 2005 100, seasonally adjusted data
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Three-month moving averages. Fixed prices
calculated by the Riksbank.
71
Figure 3.22. New export ordersNet figures and
annual percentage change
Sources National Institute of Economic Research
and Statistics Sweden
72
Figure 3.23. Employment rate, labour force and
unemploymentThousands and percentage of labour
force, aged 15-74, seasonally adjusted data
Sources Employment service and the Riksbank
Note. Three-month moving averages.
73
Figure 3.24. New and unfilled vacant jobs and
redundancy noticesThousands, seasonally adjusted
data
Source Employment service and the Riksbank
74
Figure 3.25. Employees in the business sector,
expectations and outcomeSeasonally adjusted net
figures
Sources National Institute of Economic Research
75
Figure 3.26. Proportion of firms reporting a
shortage of labourPer cent, seasonally adjusted
data
Source NIER
76
Figure 3.27. WagesAnnual percentage change
Sources National Mediation Office and the
Riksbank
77
Figure 3.28. Expectations of inflation one year
aheadPer cent
Sources National Institute of Economic Research
and TNS SIFO Prospera
Note. Household figures are monthly, others
quarterly.
78
Figure 3.29. Money market players' expectations
of inflation one, two and five years aheadPer
cent
Source TNS SIFO Prospera
Note. Monthly survey from September 2007.
Quarterly surveys prior to this.
79
Figure 3.30. The difference between nominal and
real five-year rates (break-even
inflation)Percentage points
Source The Riksbank
80
Figure 3.31. Different measures of underlying
inflationAnnual percentage change
Note. TRIM85 and UND24 are calculated on the
basis of CPI divided into around 70 subgroups.
UND24 is weighted and adjusted for the historical
standard deviation. In TRIM85 the 7.5 per cent
most positive and negative yearly price changes
each month have been excluded.
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
81
Figure 3.32. Prices of goods and services in the
CPIAnnual percentage change
Source Statistics Sweden
Note. The weight of CPI of the respective
components is given in brackets.
82
Figure 3.33. Goods prices in CPI and prices of
durable consumer goods for domestic supplyAnnual
percentage change
Note. ITPI weighs together the import price index
and the domestic market price index within the
system for the producer price index.
Source Statistics Sweden
83
Figure 3.34. HICP in Sweden and in the euro
areaAnnual percentage change
Sources Eurostat and Statistics Sweden
84
Figure B1. Market agents' expectations of the
level of the nominal repo rate in 5 yearsSurvey
responses between June 2005 and end of December
2009, per cent.
Sources TNS Prospera AB and the Riksbank
85
Figure B2. Distribution of market agents'
expectations of the level of the nominal repo
rate in 5 years.Survey responses since December
2009
Sources TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
86
Figure B3. Nominal and real 5 year forward
ratesPer cent
Sources TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
87
Figure B4. Wage increases and wage increases
agreed at union level in Sweden during the
period Q1 1993-Q4 2012 Annual percentage change
Sources National Mediation Office, Statistics
Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank's
forecast.
88
Table A1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly
average values
Source The Riksbank
89
Table A2. Inflation, annual averageAnnual
percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
90
Table A3. Inflation 12-month average annual
percentage change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
91
Table A4. Summary of financial forecasts Annual
average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
92
Table A5. International conditions Annual
average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
Sources Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental
Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
93
Table A6. GDP by expenditureAnnual average, per
cent, unless otherwise specified
Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
94
Table A7. Production and employment Annual
average, per cent, unless otherwise specified
Per cent of labour force
Sources Employment Service, Statistics Sweden
and the Riksbank
95
Table A8. Wages and unit labour cost for the
economy as a whole Annual percentage change,
calendar-adjusted data
Sources National Mediation Office, Statistics
Sweden and the Riksbank
96
Table A9. Alternative scenario with higher wages,
annual average Annual percentage change unless
otherwise specified
Note. Main scenarios forecast within
brackets. Sources Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
97
Table A10. Alternative scenario with lower wages,
annual average Annual percentage change unless
otherwise specified
Note. Main scenarios forecast within
brackets. Sources Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
98
Table A11. Alternative scenario with higher
long-term labour supply, annual average Annual
percentage change unless otherwise specified
Note. Main scenarios forecast within
brackets. Sources Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
99
Table A12. Alternative scenario with weaker
exchange rate, annual average Annual percentage
change unless otherwise specified
Note. Main scenarios forecast within
brackets. Sources Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
100
Table A13. Alternative scenario with higher repo
rate, annual average Annual percentage change
unless otherwise specified
Note. Main scenarios forecast within
brackets. Sources Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank
101
Table A14. Alternative scenario with lower repo
rate, annual average Annual percentage change
unless otherwise specified
Note. Main scenarios forecast within
brackets. Sources Statistics Sweden and the
Riksbank