Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

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Markus Amann, Janusz Cofala, Zbigniew Klimont
International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis
Progress on modelling emission scenarios
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I. Emission scenarios for the EEA Kiev 2003
report Objective Explore ancillary benefits of
Kyoto implementation options in Europe
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Scenarios for the EEA Kiev report

• Energy scenarios developed with RIVM/IMAGE/TIMER
  model, for groups of countries
• 5 alternative energy scenarios
• BL Baseline No constraints on GHG emissions
• UA Unilateral implementation of Kyoto/Marrakech
  cuts on GHG, EU bubble
• TFU 10 reduction of GHG in Europe, with bubbles
• TWB International trading of GHG reductions,
  banking of 80 of the hot air emissions of the
  Former Soviet Union
• TWOHA International trading, no hot air allowed

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Emission controls assumed

• Energy and emission statistics for 1995-1999 used
  to calibrate RAINS database
• Emission controls assumed
• Gothenburg Protocol / NEC Directive
• LCP Directive
• Fuels Directives
• Auto-Oil 2

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SO2 emissions 2010
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NOx emissions 2010
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Preliminary conclusions

• LCP Directive will over-fulfill NEC Directive for
  SO2
• No major/significant influence on NOx and VOC
• More optimistic assumptions about structural
  changes will lead to lower emissions in accession
  countries
• For 2010, differences in air pollution impacts of
  implementation alternatives of Kyoto Protocol are
  limited, given the present legislation on air
  pollution

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II. Emission projections for the northern
hemisphere up to 2020
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Emission legislation (1)

• Europe 1999 Gothenburg Protocol of CLTRAPEU
  legislation National Emission Ceilings Directive
  (2000)
• Former Soviet Union (FSU)Action implied by
  Gothenburg Protocol for European part of Russia
• North America (US Canada)US Clear Skies
  Initiative Ozone Annex of Canada-U.S. Air
  Quality Agreement

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Emission legislation (2)

• China10th Environmental 5-years Plan 2000-2005
• East Asia (Japan, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia,
  Philippines, etc.) Review of national
  legislations
• South Asia (India)Essentially uncontrolled
• Mexico, Middle East, North AfricaNot included
  in this analysis

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SO2 emissions1980-2020
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NOx emissions1980-2020
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VOC emissions1980-2020
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CO emissions1990-2020
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Conclusions

• Classical anthropogenic air pollutants (NOx,
  CO, VOC, SO2) unlikely to grow in the northern
  hemisphere in next 20 years
• (Controlled) increase in developing countries
  compensated by controls in industrialized
  countries
• But Safe air quality levels will not be
  achieved
• In industrialized countries only limited
  potential for further technical emission controls
  will remain
• Developing countries started to control mobile
  sources for stationary sources only SO2
  controlled

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III. Baseline scenario for UN/ECE and CAFE
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Baseline scenario

• Energy scenario
• Commission proposes DG-TREN baseline energy
  scenario for CAFE
• National scenarios for UN/ECE?
• Agricultural scenario
• EU No news beyond 2010 (CAPRI not beyond 2010)
• Europe-wide trends up to 2020 WATSIM
• US scenario for accession countries?
• National scenarios for UN/ECE?