THE LOOMING THREAT OF GLOBAL COOLING Geological Evidence for Prolonged Cooling Ahead and its Impacts Don J. Easterbrook Western Washington University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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THE LOOMING THREAT OF GLOBAL COOLING Geological Evidence for Prolonged Cooling Ahead and its Impacts Don J. Easterbrook Western Washington University

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Title: THE LOOMING THREAT OF GLOBAL COOLING Geological Evidence for Prolonged Cooling Ahead and its Impacts Don J. Easterbrook Western Washington University


1
THE LOOMING THREAT OF GLOBAL COOLINGGeological
Evidencefor Prolonged Cooling Ahead and its
ImpactsDon J. EasterbrookWestern Washington
University
2
THE PAST IS THE KEY TO THE FUTURE
  • To understand present-day climate changes, we
    need to know how climate has behaved in the past.
  • In order to predict where we are heading, we need
    to know where weve been.

3
Has climate always been constant before elevated
atmospheric CO2?
  • Our civilization has never experienced any
    environmental shift remotely similar to this.
    Todays climate pattern has existed throughout
    the entire history of human civilization.
    (Gore, 2006)
  • Temperature has spiked within the past few years
    unlike any previous temperature spike in history
    (Mote, 2007)
  • Current warming is 10 times greater than ever
    before seen in the geologic record (Newsweek,
    August 13, 2007)

4

Natural global warming much more intense than
modern warming has occurred many times in the
geologic past without CO2 change
5
  • Late Pleistocene abrupt climate changes
  • 15,000 yrs ago, a sudden (only a few years),
    intense climatic warming (12 C 21 F) caused
    dramatic melting of huge Ice Age ice sheets.
  • A few centuries later, temperatures again
    plummeted (11 20 F) and glaciers advanced.
  • 14,000 years ago, global temperatures rose
    rapidly (4.5C 8 F) and glaciers receded.
  • 13,400 years ago, global temperatures plunged
    (8C 14 F) and glaciers advanced.
  • 13,200 years ago, global temperatures increased
    rapidly (5C 9 F) and glaciers receded
  • 12,700 yrs ago global temperatures plunged
    sharply (8C 14 F) and a 1000 year period of
    glacial readvance, the Younger Dryas, began
  • 11,500 yrs ago, global temperatures rose sharply
    (12 C 21 F), marking the end of the Younger
    Dryas cold period

6
  • Examples of past abrupt global climate changes
    before CO2 began to rise in 1945
  • Sudden warming 15,000 yrs ago at end of the Ice
    Age
  • Dansgard-Oerscher eventsRapid warming in decades
  • 13 Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred between
    11,600 and 45,000 years ago
  • Younger Dryas -- Sudden warming 11,500 years ago
    -- 5C over 30-40 years and 8C over 40 years.
  • Medieval Warm Period 900-1300 AD
  • Little Ice Age Sudden cooling 400 years ago
  • Historic fluctuations

7
Abrupt Younger Dryas climate change
8
Nine ice sheet advances and retreats in 1500
years
9
(No Transcript)
10
Sudden cooling and warming, Greenland ice core
11
Warm/cool periods past 5000 years
12
25 yr warm/cool cycles from 18O isotopes in the
Greenland ice core
13
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age
  • Both Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age have
    long been well documented with strong geologic
    evidence. Georef lists 485 papers on the
    Medieval Warm period and 1413 on the Little Ice
    Age for a total of 1900 published papers.
  • When Mann/Briffa contended neither had happened
    and climate had not changed in 1000 years,
    geologists didnt take them seriously and thought
    either (1) the trees they used were not climate
    sensitive, or (2) they had used inappropriate
    data.

14
Mann hockey stick vs. reality
15
A group of scientists in the UK and US1.
Constructed a climate history that suppressed the
Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age, a
major argument of CO2 advocates.2. Doctored
climate data to show increase global warming and
suppress global cooling. 3. Hid or deleted data
that didnt support their beliefs.4. Took over
journal editorial boards to suppress opposing
views.5..Suppressed the research of scientists
who didnt agree with them6. Reviewed their own
publications and claimed only peer reviewed
papers were valid
16
Maunder Minimum
17
Global cooling occurs during times of few
sunspots and low solar irradiance
18
Correlation of SOI and solar activity
19
Two periods of global warming and two periods of
global cooling have occurred in the past century
20
Correlation of glacial fluctuations, global
temperature, and Pacific sea surface temperature
21
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
The Pacific Ocean has two modesa warm mode and
a cool modeand regularly switches back and forth
between them on a 25-30 year cycle. The PDO has
strong correlations with global climatewhen the
PDO is warm, climate is warm when the PDO is
cool, climate is cool.
22

GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS
CLIMATE CHANGES
PDO-AMO MODE CHANGES
WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?
23
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24
Sea surface temperatures
1997
2001
1999
2007
25
March, 2009
May 7, 2010
26
Past and predicted PDO
27
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28
Computer models are the only basis for claiming
CO2 is causing global warming. IPCC models
predicted 1ºF warming from 2000 to 2010.
However, no warming beyond the 1998 level so the
models have been proven wrong.
29
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30

Its all about money and power
31
Impacts of global cooling
  • Global cooling is far more harmful to humans than
    global warming because
  • 1. Twice as many people are killed by extreme
    cold than by extreme heat.
  • 2. Decrease in global food productionhardest
    hit will be third-world countries where millions
    are now near starvation levels.
  • 3. Increase in per capita energy demands.
  • 4. Decreased ability to cope with the population
    explosion (gt50 increase in next 40 years).

32
Conclusions
  • Numerous, abrupt, short-lived warming and
    cooling episodes much more intense than recent
    warming/cooling occurred during the late
    Pleistocene, none of which could have been caused
    by changes in atmospheric CO2. .
  • Climate changes in the geologic record show a
    regular pattern of alternate warming and cooling
    with a 25-30 year period for the past 500 years.
  • Strong correlation between solar changes, the
    PDO, glacier advance and retreat, and global
    climate allow us to project a consistent pattern
    into the future.
  • Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades
    that will be far more damaging than global
    warming would have been.

33
Dogma is an impediment to the free exercise of
thought. It paralyses the intelligence.
Conclusions based upon preconceived ideas are
valueless. It is only the open mind that really
thinks. Patricia Wentworth,
1949
34
  • Two things are infinite the universe and human
    stupidity and Im not sure about the universe.
    Albert Einstein.
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