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SEAN-CC Regional Training Workshop: Building Capacity on Access to Funds for Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives

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Title: SEAN-CC Regional Training Workshop: Building Capacity on Access to Funds for Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives


1
SEAN-CC Regional Training Workshop Building
Capacity on Access to Funds for Climate Change
Adaptation Initiatives
Climate change adaptation priorities in SEA
countries
Mozaharul Alam Regional Climate Change
Coordinator Regional Office for Asia and the
Pacific (ROAP) United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP)
2
Climate Change reading the signs - temperature
  • Global mean temperature has increased 0.76oC
    during 1906-2005
  • The average temperature in Southeast Asia has
    increased 0.10.3C per decade over the last 50
    years
  • Increase in temperature varies by countries
    highest change observed in Singapore

.
Source IPCC, 2007
3
Climate Change reading the signs precipitation
  • Indonesia decrease in annual rainfall during
    recent decades in some areas
  • Philippines increase in annual rainfall and in
    the number of rainy days
  • Singapore decrease in annual rainfall in the
    past three decades
  • Thailand decrease annual rainfall for the last
    five decades
  • Viet Nam decrease in monthly rainfall in
    July-August and increase in September to November

Precipitation in Southeast Asia trended downward
from 1960 to 2000.
Source IPCC, 2007
4
Climate Change reading the signs sea level rise
  • Sea level has risen at the rate 1.8 mm/year since
    1961 and 3.1 mm/year since 1993.
  • IPCC estimated sea levels may rise 18cm - 59cm in
    the coming century.
  • The Greenland ice sheet, which could raise sea
    levels by 6m if it melted away, is currently
    losing more than 100 cubic km a year-faster than
    can be explained by natural melting.
  • In SEA, sea levels have risen 13 millimeters per
    year and projected to rise by 70 cm by 2100

.
5
Climate Change reading the signs extreme events
Extreme Events Key Trends
Heat waves Increase in hot days and warm nights, and decrease in cold days and nights between 1961 and 1998
Intense rains and floods Increased occurrence of extreme rains causing flash floods in Viet Nam landslides and floods in 1990 and 2004 in the Philippines, and floods in Cambodia in 2000, 2011
Droughts Droughts normally associated with El Niño years in Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam droughts in 1997 and 1998 causing massive crop failures and water shortages as well as forest fires in various parts of Indonesia, Lao PDR, and Philippines
Typhoons On average, 20 cyclones cross the Philippine, about eight or nine making landfall each year an average increase of 4.2 in the frequency of cyclones entering the Philippine during the period 19902003
Source IPCC, 2007
6
Climate Change reading the signs projection
of temperature
  • Global mean temperature projected to be increased
    by 1.8 to 5.4C by 2100
  • The mean surface air temperature in SEA would
    increase between 0.750.87C by 2039, 1.322.01C
    by 2069, and 1.963.77C by 2100 (IPCC, 2007)

.
Source IPCC, 2007
7
Reading the signs projection of temperature
  • Indonesia increase 2.1C and 3.4C by 2100 under
    the B2 and A2 scenarios, respectively.
  • Philippines increase of 1.23.9C by 2080, using
    all the IPCC emission scenarios.
  • Singapore similar to the projected global mean
    temperature rise of 2.5C with a range of
    1.74.4C.
  • Thailand increase 24C by the end of this
    century
  • Viet Nam increase in temperature of 24C by
    2100
  • Cambodia increase in mean annual temperatures of
    0.3-0.6C by 2025, 0.7-2.7C by the 2060s and of
    1.4-4.3 C by the 2090s

.
8
Reading the signs projection of temperature
.
Source WB, 2013
9
4oC Global Temperature Rise impacts on Southeast
Asia
  • Agriculture
  • Yields of cereals crops could decrease by up to
    5 across South East Asia (best-case scenario)
    and reduction in yield may be as much as 30 or
    higher. Any reduction in rice yield could be very
    significant for large rice producers such as
    Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.
  • Water Availability
  • Climate change may affect the Southeast Asian
    monsoon and the seasonal pattern of rainfall.
    Incidence of drought will increase but this does
    not mean decrease of average annual amount of
    rainfall.

.
10
4oC Global Temperature Rise impacts on Southeast
Asia
  • Sea Level Rise
  • Highly populated and low-lying delta areas along
    the Southeast Asian coast are particularly
    vulnerable to sea-level rise such as Bangkok
    Manila, Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City.
  • Marine Ecosystem
  • Could be fundamentally altered by ocean
    acidification and could have a significant impact
    on fisheries.
  • Many communities in Indonesia, Malaysia,
    Thailand, Cambodia and the Philippines rely on
    fisheries for their income

.
11
4oC Global Temperature Rise impacts on Southeast
Asia
  • Health
  • More incidences of heat-related illness,
    including heat stress, strokes and cardiovascular
    disorders. City populations (such as in Jakarta,
    Manila, Bangkok) may be particularly at risk from
    rising temperatures.
  • Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue
    fever may change in geographical spread, and the
    duration of the transmission seasons could
    lengthen.

.
12
4oC Global Temperature Rise impacts on Southeast
Asia
  • Mekong Delta
  • The global average sea-level could rise by up to
    80 cm by the end of the century and such
    sea-level rises could submerge the lowest parts
    of the delta
  • It could also increase the threat of saline
    intrusion and storm surge damage to rice crops
    across the region.

.
13
Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
.
Source Arief Anshory Yusuf Herminia A.
Francisco, 2009
14
Human (population density) and ecological
(protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast
Asia (2000)
.
Source Arief Anshory Yusuf Herminia A.
Francisco, 2009
15
Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
.
Source Arief Anshory Yusuf Herminia A.
Francisco, 2009
16
Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
.
Source Arief Anshory Yusuf Herminia A.
Francisco, 2009
17
Example of Vulnerability
.
(a) Myanmars overall climate change
vulnerability index (taking into account areas
and socio-economic sectors most at risk) and (b)
climate change vulnerability index for Myanmar
considering population density.
18
Example of Vulnerability
.
19
SEA Countries Responses
  • Least Developed Countries Formulated National
    Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
  • National Communication All SEA Countries, except
    Brunei Darussalam
  • Technology Need Assessment Most SEA Countries
  • Emergence of new institution Setting up national
    institution at higher level to address climate
    change.

.
20
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Agriculture
  • Promotion of locally relevant technologies,
    climate-resilient rice crop varieties, crop
    diversification, improvement of technologies and
    ex/in-situ conservation of plant genetic
    resources - rural and subsistence farmers
    (Myanmar, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand)
  • Development and improvement of small-scale
    aquaculture ponds, promotion of household
    integrated farming, community irrigation systems,
    soil conservation (Cambodia)
  • Promote secondary professions to improve the
    livelihoods of farmers affected by climate change
    induced natural disasters (Lao PDR)

.
21
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Agriculture
  • Development of milkfish farming technology,
    cultivation engineering of beef cattle
    (Indonesia)
  • Precision farming technology (Thailand)
  • Plant genetics/plant breeding, shifting from rice
    to upland grains, and shifting from triple
    cropping to double cropping and a
    shrimp/fish/poultry crop (Vietnam)
  • Precision water management and drainage to ensure
    sufficient water availability for both
    agriculture and other uses, precision farming
    technology (Malaysia, Thailand)

.
22
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Agriculture
  • CC resilience of agriculture and fisheries
    production and distribution systems, and
    communities (Philippines)
  • Climate-sensitive agriculture and fisheries
    policies, plans and programs formulated.
  • Enhanced capacity for CCA and DRR of government,
    farming and fishing communities and industry.

.
23
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Water Resources
  • Constructing small-scale water reservoir (flood
    control and increasing water supplies for local
    communities) (Myanmar, Cambodia)
  • Rehabilitation/construction/improvement of a
    multiple-use reservoir, dam, flood protection
    dikes, waterways, drainage and water gates
    (Cambodia, Singapore, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Vietnam)
  • Rainwater harvesting, wells for domestic water
    supply, household water treatment and safe
    storage (Cambodia, Vietnam)
  • Enabling policy, knowledge and capacity for IWRM,
    water supply and demand management of water
    improved (Philippines, Malaysia)

24
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Water Resources
  • Awareness raising on water and water resource
    management, strengthen institutional and human
    resource capacities related to water and water
    resource management (Lao PDR)
  • Water resources model - Groundwater flow modeling
    with MODFLOW and related programs (Indonesia)
  • Networking (via pipes or canals) and management
    of infrastructures (Malaysia)

25
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Forest
  • Reforestation in degraded/sensitive forest areas,
    degraded watershed areas for ecosystem resilience
    and rural livelihoods (Myanmar)
  • Continue the slash and burn eradication programme
    and permanent job creation program (Lao PDR)
  • Strengthen capacity of village forestry
    volunteers in forest planting, caring and
    management techniques as well as the use of
    village forests (Lao PDR)
  • Plant science/plant genetics and agroforestry

26
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Biodiversity
  • Buffering marine habitats and sustaining fish
    populations through community-based MPA
    management and ecosystem sensitive fishery
    practices (Myanmar)
  • Mainstreaming ecosystem-based climate change
    adaptation for buffering rural communities into
    policy, planning and relevant projects (Myanmar)
  • Management and conservation of protected areas
    and key biodiversity areas (Philippines)
  • Capacity for integrated ecosystem-based
    management approach in protected areas and key
    biodiversity areas (Philippines)

27
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Coastal Zone
  • Adaptation to climate change through Integrated
    Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) (Myanmar, Vietnam)
  • Mangrove reforestation, restoration for resilient
    ecosystems and rural livelihoods (Myanmar,
    Cambodia)
  • Community and household water supply in coastal
    provinces (Cambodia)
  • Rehabilitation of multiple-use canals, coastal
    protection infrastructure, reclamation (Cambodia,
    Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam)

28
Adaptation Priorities sectors and technologies
  • Cross Cutting - Early Warning System
  • Improving weather observation capacity - weather
    radar system (Myanmar, Lao PDR)
  • Developing (flood and drought) early warning
    system - local communities (Myanmar, Thailand,
    Lao PDR, Vietnam)
  • Vegetation planting for flood and windstorm
    protection (Cambodia)
  • Strengthening of community disaster preparedness
    and response capacity (Cambodia)
  • Strengthen the capacity of the National Disaster
    Management Committees (Lao PDR)

29
Multiple sector and issues responses
inter-linkage
  • Ecosystem based adaptation (coastal, mountain,
    dry land, river basin)
  • Reduction of emission from deforestation and
    forest degradation
  • Management of marine ecosystem (blue carbon)

Environmental Sustainability sustaining the
provision of ecosystem services (provision of
food water, fuel, climate regulation)
  • Multi-hazard and risk mapping
  • Local level capacity building for disaster
    preparedness and environmental management

Disaster Risk Reduction (natural e.g. flood,
drought, cyclone and storm surges, earthquake
etc man-made e.g. oil spillage, nuclear etc.)
Climate Change (temperature rise variation in
rainfall and precipitation changes in sea
level salinity intrusion)
  • Improvement of systematic observation and
    monitoring
  • Improve local level plan, design and
    implementation
  • Information and communication
  • Integrated coastal zone management
  • Integrated watershed management
  • Conservation, protection and management of
    ecosystems and services.
  • Improvement of early warning systems
  • Improvement of modeling and forecasting of
    short-term and long-term phenomenon
  • Development of drought, flood, salinity resilient
    crop variety

Alam, M., 2011
30
Adaptation Estimated costs per sector
Sector Study Study Study
Sector UNFCCC (2007) Parry et al (2009) World Bank (2010)a
Agriculture, forestry, fisheries 7 7 6
Water resources 9 Much higher than other two studies 11
Human health 5 At least 10 3
Coastal zones 5 10 29
Infrastructure 22-41 65-154 29
Extreme events 2 2 7
Fisheries 2 2 2
Ecosystems 2 33-40a 2
Total 54-73 gt129-225 80-90b
31
Adaptation Distribution
Source Climate Funds Update 2012
32
THANK YOU !
For more information Mozaharul Alam Regional
Climate Change Coordinator United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) Email
mozaharul.alam_at_unep.org Web www.unep.org/climatec
hange
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