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Press view then slide show. The slides will rotate automatically. Press escape anytime to exit the show. Email me with any questions at Joel@JoelHawk.com. Thanks for visiting and I

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Economic & Real Estate Projections For 2010 The Nation of California New for-sale home production will be modest The housing market will stabilize in early 2010 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Press view then slide show. The slides will rotate automatically. Press escape anytime to exit the show. Email me with any questions at Joel@JoelHawk.com. Thanks for visiting and I


1
  • Press view then slide show. The slides will
    rotate automatically. Press escape anytime to
    exit the show. Email me with any questions at
    Joel_at_JoelHawk.com. Thanks for visiting and Id
    be interested in hearing your comments.
  • Joel

2
A thought to ponder
  • More than any other time in history, mankind
    faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair
    and utter hopelessness. The other, to total
    extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to
    choose correctly.
  •  
  •   -Woody Allen, 1975
  • (to a graduating class)

3
THE NATION OF CALIFORNIA alive again in 2010?
Alan Nevin Director of Economic Research When
you need to know about real estate, you need to
know about MarketPointe
4
Dismal Decade
  • 2000-2001 The Dot.com Bust -- job losses in
    California 250,000
  • 2001 9/11, 3,000 killed in Al Qaeda attacks 
  • 2002 Catholic church sex scandal
  • Virginia sniper killings
  • U.S. bombs Afghanistan

5
Dismal Decade
  • 2003 U.S. invades Iraq -- leads to futile
    deaths of thousands of
  • soldiers and civilians, with few
    if any results
  • 2004 George Bush re-elected
  • 2005 Hurricane Katrina New Orleans devastated
  • Gas prices spike
  • 2006 North Korea nuclear tests
  • Genocide in Darfur
  • Lebanon Israel war

6
Dismal Decade
  • 2007 Housing market crash
  • 2008 Wall Street implodes
  • Fuel prices spike to all time high
  • 2009 U.S. hits worse deficit ever
  • GM declares bankruptcy
  • Unemployment hits 10

7
THE FUTURE OF AMERICA
8
Trading Places
Data Labor Department Published Wall St Journal
7.13.09
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
Economic Drivers Nation of California
  • Military In Uniform
  • Federal State Government (Civilian)
  • Manufacturing
  • Tourism
  • Universities
  • Import / Export
  • Technology
  • Biotech
  • Telecommunications
  • Electronics
  • Headquarters

12
High Tech Economies
13
Good News on Jobs, San Diego County Sept
Nov 2008 compared to Sept Nov 2009
10,000
-2,700
14
Population Growth, By State, 2000 - 2008
15
California Population
16
San Diego County Population Growth From Migration
is On the Rise Again
47,500

-80,500
17
Residential Building Permits
18
NEW HOME SALES SAN DIEGO COUNTY
19
Shrinking New Home Inventory Bodes Well for SD
Market
20
Residential Resale Market Statistics San
Diego County
21
Residential Resale Market Statistics San
Diego County
22
Resale Market Statistics San Diego County
23
NOTICES OF DEFAULT - SOUTHERN CAL
NOTICES OF DEFAULT NOTICES OF DEFAULT NOTICES OF DEFAULT NOTICES OF DEFAULT NOTICES OF DEFAULT
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
4Q2008 - 4Q2009 4Q2008 - 4Q2009 4Q2008 - 4Q2009 4Q2008 - 4Q2009 4Q2008 - 4Q2009
         
AREA 4Q2008 4Q2009 CHANGE
   
LOS ANGELES 14,410 16,595 2,185 15
ORANGE 4,481 5,555 1,074 24
SAN DIEGO 5,543 6,536 993 18
RIVERSIDE 9,151 9,188 37 0
SAN BERNARDINO 7,437 7,290 -147 -2
VENTURA 1,308 1,857 549 42
         
TOTAL 42,330 47,021 4,691 11
   
SOURCE DATAQUICK  
MARKETPOINTE REALTY ADVISORS 1.2010        
24
FORECLOSURES SOUTHERN CAL
25
Predictable Housing Cycles
26
Mortgage Rates 10 Year Treasury Yields
27
San Diego Office Market
28
San Diego Retail Market
29
San Diego Industrial Market
30
Commercial Building Permits
31
2010 Economic Forecast San Diego County
10 20
0 10
1 2
1 1 ½
Population
Local Jobs
Housing Construction
Public Works / Military
Commercial Construction
Government Tax Revenues
10 20
10 20
32
As we grow older and more experienced, we
overrate the accuracy of our judgments
33
Economic Real Estate Projections For 2010 The
Nation of California
  • California will continue to add 400,000
    population annually
  • The job market will just mope along, with the
    real estate construction industry dragging down
    an otherwise healthy and diverse economy
  • Interest rates will stay low
  • Home foreclosures and short sales will continue
    to decline. Real bargains will disappear
  • Resales and refis will be strong

34
Economic Real Estate Projections For 2010 The
Nation of California
  • New for-sale home production will be modest
  • The housing market will stabilize in early 2010
  • The commercial market will feel deep pain,
    particularly the office market
  • The apartment, retail and industrial investment
    markets will remain healthy, but not cheap
  • 2010 is a great year to have cash. Pouncing on
    distressed properties is an art form that
    requires concentration, a strong will and faith
    in the future of California.

35
  • When you need to know about real estate,
  • you need to know about MarketPointe
  • Market Financial Feasibility Studies
  • Expert Witness Services
  • Portfolio Valuation Repositioning Studies
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