Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006

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Title: Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006


1
Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
Impacts on policy and decision making28th- 29th
September 2006
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Byeongwon Park Seok-ho Son
Technology Foresight Center Korea Institute of
ST Evaluation and Planning
2
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Koreas ST has achieved remarkable growth during
the last half century.
3
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Past and Present of Koreas ST
4
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Government RD in Korea
Governmental RD 7.7B (05)
MOCIE 19 for Industrial Technology
Development
Rest of Ministries (Defense, Agriculture,Transpo
rtation,etc.)
MOST 19 for Scientific RD
MOST(OSTI) 11 for Managing Research
Organizations
MIC 9 for Information Communication
Technology
MOCIE Ministry of Commerce, Industry
Energy MOST Ministry of Science
TechnologyMIC Ministry of Information
Communication OSTI Office of Science
Technology Innovation
5
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Government RD Related Organizational Structure
President
N S T C
MOST
Vice Prime Ministry
OSTI
MOCIE
MIC
KISTEP
KOSEF
ITEP
IITA
Main Bodies of RD(Research Institutions under
Research Council, Private Companies,
Universities, etc)
NSTC National Science Technology Council
6
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Chronology of major Government RD Programs in
Korea

2000
2001
2002
2004
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97


98

99
Dual Use Tech. Program
HAN Project (G7)
Space Tech. Development Program
MOST
MOST National RD Programs
Creative Research Initiatives
NRL Program
21C Frontier Program
Nuclear Energy Development Program
Next-generation growth engine program
Basic Science Program
MOCIE
Industrial Technology Program (Program for SMEs
Key Tech. Program)
Alternative Energy Energy Conservation Program
Information Telecommunication Technology Program
MIC
Dual Use Tech. Program
MOD
Health Medical Technology Program
MOHW
Environmental Technology Program
MOEnv
Key Environment Tech. Program
Agricultural Technology Program
MOAF
SMBA
Small Business Innovation Research
MOE
Academia Support Program
BK21 Program
7
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
BUT, Korea faces the new and daunting
challenges in coming years.
8
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty
  • High oil price
  • - 97 import of energy
  • Energy-intensive industry
  • (ex.steel Ind.)
  • Increasing risk due to new Tech
  • Advances in NT, BT, ET
  • Fast-follower ? World leader

Fast Ageing society -fertility rate
4.53(70)?1.08 (06) -Net decrease in population
after 2020
Socioeconomic Polarization -Collapse of middle
class -Big Corp. vs. SMEs -Seoul vs. Regional
North Korea
  • FTA economic Block
  • 38.3 GDP dependence on Export
  • Rising China
  • -Nutcraker Situation

9
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
challenges in ST area
Increasing Technology Trade Deficits
Weak Basic Research
a serious sociocultural phenomena of avoiding
sci. eng. among the young
"Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed into
cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must
learn to live with the beast. -Paul J.H.
Schoemaker
10
How can Korea find a way to the future of ST?
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Foresight Activities
11
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
YEAR DELPHI MIXED PANEL/SCENARIO
1970-    
1989     Netherlands
1990 1st Germany 5th Japan   OECD(?Present)
1991     1st US-Core Tech.
1992     New Zealand, UN(?present)
1993 1st Korean TF(?1994)   2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-21C Tech.
1994 France Japan/Germany 1st UK Netherlands
1995 6th Japan   France-100 core Tech. 3rd US-critical Tech.
1996 Japan Germany   AU-ASTEC, Finalnd(1996-98) Netherlands (Future Committee) Italy industrial forecasting ACUNU Millennium Project Nigeria, India, Philippines
1997   Spain-OPTI Ireland
1998 Austria Germany US George Washington Univ.     South Africa, New Zealand Sweden, 4th US- critical Tech. Norway, APEC EU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands
1999 2nd Korean TF(?1999) Spain APEC Hungary-TEP 2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(?present) Ireland, Italy
2000   Venezuela 2nd France-100 Core Tech. Italy 2nd Industrial forecasting China, Portugal, Brazil
2001 7th Japan   Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia
2002   Turkey Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(?present)
2003-2004 8th Japan(?2004) China  3rd Korean TF(?2004) EU(FP 6 ?(till 2006) UK (every year) Germany( every year), UN, OECD
12
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Foresight is booming everywhere in the world
  • Increasing interest in thinking about the future
    of ST
  • in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate
    future ST related issues
  • In order to formulate new strategy for ST policy
  • Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in
    many countries and private firms.
  • Because TF can make a unique strategic
    contribution to the policy maker and firm manager
    as well as social stakeholders.
  • Especially in the science and technology related
    area.
  • The need for priorities in science and technology
  • No one country can afford vast amount of RD
    spending
  • This Seville Seminar is a premier example that
    shows the current emerging issues in Foresight
    activities.

13
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Currently On-going TF activity in Korea
Type Sponsoring Ministry Facilitating organization Thematic Area or Project Title Time Horizon Methodology
TF (2006) Ministry of Information and Communication IITA (Institute for Information Technology Advancement) Foresight for Information Technology -2030 Delphi
TF (2006) Ministry of Information and Communication NCA (National Computerization Agency) Ubiquitous Korea 15 yrs Panel
TF (2006) Ministry of Health and Welfare KHIDI (Korea Health Industry Development Institute) Future Trends in Health care and Life Science 15 yrs Delphi
TF (2006) Ministry of Environment KIEST (Korea Institute of Environmental Science and Technology) Future Trends in Environmental Technology 15 yrs Environmental Scanning Delphi
TF (2006) Ministry of Science and Technology KISTEP (Korea Institute of ST Evaluation and Planning) Thematic Foresight -Nanomaterial -Stem cell -Ubiquitous Computing 15 yrs Panel Scenario
F The Presidential Office Presidential Committee on Education Innovation Future of Education in Korea -What we do right now? 15 yrs Panel
TRM (2001-present) Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy KOTEF (Korea Industrial Technology Foundation) Technology Roadmap for - Material and Component - Industries (Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.) 10 yrs TRM Panel
ST (2006) Ministry of Planning and Budget Co-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute) Vision 2030 - Layout for government Budget Spending up to 2030 -2030 Panel
14
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Overview of the 3rd Korean Technology Foresight
carried out by MOST
  • ST basic Law Article 13 (enacted in 2001)
  • Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP)
  • Provide the vision and direction of emerging ST
    area identify new technology that may have high
    potential for growth of national wealth and
    betterment of quality of human life
  • Has to implement in ST basic plan (every 5 year,
    2nd Plan for 2008-2012))
  • ? 1st TF (1993-1994) and 2nd TF(1997-1998) were
    Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by
    STEPI and KISTEP
  • STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)
  • ? 3rd TF was carried out in 2003-2004 by KISTEP
    and it is the first TF after enactment of ST
    basic Law.

15
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
3rd Korean TF Characteristics
  • Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues
    in future Korea and enlargement of participation
    of the stakeholders
  • Application of Delphi methods for emerging
    technology that may solve the future needs and
    issue
  • Scenario writing for future society
  • Future prospect, needs/issues and
    technology
  • Internal consistency
  • Increase awareness the role of ST in the
    knowledge-based society
  • Offering of policy alternatives to promote
    knowledge-based innovative society

Time Horizon up to year 2030 Project Duration
2003.7 - 2004.12 TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED
National covering all ST fields and
the entire territory of Korea
16
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
3rd Korean TF Procedures
2nd Phase
1st phase
Future perspectives Needs and Issues of
society (4 actors-15 categories-43
subcategories (Dec. 2003)
Future Technology Subjects and Delphi
Survey Analysis (Aug. 2004)
3rd Phase
Future Social Systems Scenario Building (Dec.
2004)
17
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Korean TF Sector Expert Panels
10 sectors (based on key words)
Space earth
Material  manufacturing
Information and knowledge
Food bio-resource
Life health
Energy environment
Safety Securuty
Social Infrastructure
Management innovation 
ST and society/culture
Delphi Survey
Provide List of Future Technologies
Scenario
18
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Korean TF Results
  • Technology Foresight with socio-economic
    consideration (3rd Generation Foresight)
  • - Future perspectives, assessment of future
    needs issues
  • - Scenario writing on future social systems
    (education, labor, healthcare, safety)
  • Identify 761 future technology subjects
  • - 61 of them will realize between 2011-2015
  • - Korea is still lagging all future technology
    area
  • - Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT
    area
  • - Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10
    years)
  • Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general
    public
  • Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report
  • Government took follow-up action quickly
  • ? Future Strategic Technology

19
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Future Strategic Technology Initiative
  • Government launches new project to identify
    emerging generic technologies at the national
    level based on 3rd Korean foresight results
  • Critical attributes of national strategic
    technology
  • Emerging
  • Disruptive
  • Converging
  • Strategic area where government should be involved

20
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Priority Setting Procedure
21
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Future Strategic Technology 21
  • Digital convergence
  • Smart computing
  • Nano and functional material

Economic Impact
  • Information security
  • Super efficient transportation
  • Bio-resource
  • Satellite
  • fusion
  • Cognitive science and humanoid robot
  • Culture contents
  • Regenerative medicine

Quality of Life
Public Need
  • Bio-safety defense
  • Drug discovery personalized medicine
  • Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation
  • Ubiquitous civil infrastructure
  • Hazard?disaster forecast
  • Next generation nuclear energy and safety
  • Clean and renewable energy
  • Global observing system
  • Climate/weather forecasting
  • Marine territory management

22
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Technology Roadmapping in Korea
23
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Brief History of TRM in Korea
  • Public Sector
  • MOCIE
  • Industrial Technology Roadmap
  • 1st Phase(2000. 92001. 8), 2rd Phase(2001.
    72002. 6), 3rd Phase(2003. 62004. 6), 4th
    Phase(2004. 102005. 9)
  • Annually try the new indursty area(product) and
    update old ones.
  • MOST
  • National Technology Roadmap(2002)
  • MIC
  • u-IT839 (8 service, 3 infrastructure, 9 products)
  • Private Sector
  • Samsung Electronics
  • Customized TRM based on SRI-framework

24
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
NTRM Approach
Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions
13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions
99 Key Technologies NTRM
  • Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with
    necessary modifications
  • Handle basic ST separately from NTRM based on
    bottom-up approach
  • NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic
    product/functions and
  • detailed TRM for chosen key technologies

Inter-Government CoordinationTaskForce
NSTC Office
KISTEP Project Team
NTRM Head Council
Vision V Committee
Vision IV Committee
Vision I Committee
Vision II Committee
Vision III Committee
TRM team A
TRM team B
TRM team C
TRM team N
..
25
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
NTRM by 5 Visions
Building an information- knowledge-intelligence
society
1
26
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence
Society
Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of
life by making IT service more intelligent,
mobile, and user-friendly
Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication
Innovation in Contents Service
Ambient Intelligence
27
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
28
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and
Functions
29
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile
Communication
High
Competitiveness of domestic technology
Medium
Low
?
wideband CDMA modem
narrowband CDMA modem
?
QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code
?
High-speed packet modem
?
Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR
?
Technology
??
IP-based RAN
Fixed ATM/IP
?
High-speed adaptive RAN
IP-based RAN with smart antenna
?
?
Wireless IP core tech. (QoS, Handoff,Resource
management)
?
??
Network interworking(GW)
Homogeneous network Integration
??
Active core network
?
DO/GPRS
DO/DV/GPRS enhancements
??
??
ALL-IP core network
?
??
high-speed hot spot gt 100 Mbps
?
Adhoc, Bluetooth
PAN
??
2007
2002
2012
Product
2G cellular system
HMI/Hot Spot system
Cdma20001x EV system
4G mobile comm.
Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV
W-CDMA system/ HSDPA
30
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Corporate Foresight One Electronic Company
  • AGTO based in IBM GTO
  • ? Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant
    to Industry
  • Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to
    Create New Ones
  • Exponential and Threshold
  • How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses
  • Understand Customer Challenges
  • Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of
    Company
  • Future Technology Center Research Organization
  • Sectoral Technology Forecasting
  • Siemens Picture of Future
  • Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation

31
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Good signal for FTA
  • Each Ministry establishes a separate Future
    Strategic Unit
  • More private companies have involved in foresight
    activity
  • More article about Future Technologies on
    newspaper
  • A lot of debates underway on vision 2030 by
    the government
  • Movement to form National Strategic unit
  • Start to open Foresight class in the graduate
    school

32
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Challenges
  • Due to legislation, it seems to be quite
    favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in
    Korea
  • But there are several things to be addressed.
  • Capability to run TF (Facilitating)
  • Not many
  • Not enough experiences
  • Methodological Competence
  • Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to
    use? Better way to do?
  • What is the best combination of methods
  • Impact on Policy making
  • Some, but not Clear yet

33
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Thank you
Dr. Byeongwon Park ? bpark_at_kistep.re.kr ? 82 2
589 2931
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