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Current Work and Initial Perspectives EPSRC Network Meeting 1 Mar 01 Topics for discussion MoD s Modelling and Simulation Strategy for Analysis Some personal ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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1
Soft/Hard ComplementarityCurrent Work and
Initial Perspectives EPSRC NetworkMeeting
1Mar 01
2
Topics for discussion
  • MoDs Modelling and Simulation Strategy for
    Analysis
  • Some personal perspectives from the
    Unconventional Analysis Workshop held last Oct
  • Current work and issues

3
MoD MS Strategy for Analysis
4
MoD MS Strategy for Analysis Overview
  • Version 2 now available
  • Written by CDA on behalf of MoD stakeholder
    community
  • Copies can be made available
  • Contains four Thrust Areas
  • 1. Flexible analysis techniques
  • 2. Functionality focus areas - C2 and
    logistics/sustainability
  • 3. Improving the quality and integrity of the
    analytical process
  • 4. Making the best use of technology developments

5
Updated Strategy Key Tenets
  • A UK MoD Modelling and Simulation Strategy for
    Analysis
  • Used to drive strategies and implementation plans
    in individual areas
  • Not just for CDA/DERA but for all analysis done
    on MoDs behalf
  • Builds on the previous (1997) version
  • Less model-centric
  • Analyst at least as important as the software
  • Principles should apply equally to all OA
    techniques
  • Embraces work on role of Synthetic Environments
    in OA

6
Thrust 1 Flexible Analysis TechniquesCritical
Principles
  • Delivery of faster, better, cheaper analysis
  • but still of an appropriate quality
  • Transition from perception that analysts role is
  • Running the model
  • to
  • supporting the decision (maker)
  • using analytical techniques
  • as appropriate to assist

7
Thrust 3 Improving the quality and integrity of
the analytical processCritical Principles
  • Crucial element is fitness for purpose (FFP)
  • Determine if something is valid in the context of
    what it is being used for
  • FFP embraces ideas from Verification, Validation
    and Accreditation
  • An ability to prove FFP in a timely fashion and
    at commensurate cost is also essential
  • Relies on assessment of Methodology, User, Data,
    Review, (Concept)

8
Thrust 4 Making best use of technology
developmentCritical Principles
  • Capture current practice and capabilities
  • Maintain an awareness of likely relevant changes
    in technology that could be used to support
    analysis
  • Provide guidance on best practice and changes to
    best practice arising from technology
    opportunities

9
Some Personal Perspectives from the
Unconventional Analysis Seminar
10
Perspectives (1)
  • Knowledge of the social processes into which the
    OR is being fed is vital
  • This particularly influences "new" methods but
    applies generally to OR
  • The hard/soft divide and the debate it engenders
    is both unhelpful and potentially divisive
  • Spectrum vs Quantisation ?
  • Techniques such as MCDA crystallise the debate
  • They are hard to really soft modellers but soft
    to really hard modellers !

11
Perspectives (2)
  • Judgements are necessary in all OR and must be
    made by appropriately qualified and/or empowered
    individuals.
  • Analysts need to be aware of all OR techniques
  • This needs to be better facilitated by the OR
    community
  • Also demands a willingness to embrace newer
    methods as appropriate but equally not to ignore
    the "classical" OR methods that still have much
    to offer
  • There is strength in (managed) diversity
  • Back towards our original multi-disciplinary
    roots ?!

12
SummaryCurrent Work and Issues
  • Current work
  • Ideas flowing from MoD MS Strategy
  • Work on fitness for purpose across all MS
  • Work on best practice capture and promulgation
  • Method Logbooks, building on previous work on
    model validation logbooks
  • Issues
  • What can Soft learn from Hard ?
  • What can Hard learn from Soft ?
  • How can we use them together to best effect ?
  • How can we escape the divisive nature of such
    terminology in future ?

13
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14
Underlying Principle 1Using Models of an
Appropriate Level of Complexity
  • The analytical approach must be simple enough to
    be understandable, yet able to represent
    adequately the key features of the problem under
    consideration
  • It has long been understood by Operational
    Analysts that, in dealing with complicated
    situations, simple models that provide useful
    insights are often to be preferred to models that
    get so close to the real world that the mysteries
    they intend to unravel are repeated in the model
    and remain mysteries.
    (The Lanchester Legacy, Vol III Chapter 9
    (Bowen, McNaught))

15
Put another way...
  • Everything should be made as simple as
    possible, but no simpler.
  • .Albert Einstein
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