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Six Future Challenges: 50 years after The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at University of Manchester New Paradigms for Using Computers New Personal Computer Uses

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Title: Six Future Challenges: 50 years after The Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer at University of Manchester New Paradigms for Using Computers New Personal Computer Uses


1
Six Future Challenges50 years afterThe
Celebration of the Birth of the Modern Computer
at University of Manchester New Paradigms for
Using ComputersNew Personal Computer Uses
  • July 16, 1998
  • Gordon Bell
  • Microsoft Corporation

2
Some challenges
  • Fifty years ago the first stored program computer
    ran at Manchester. Now, we should posit
    challenges for the next five decades that will
    exploit computing. Several challenges are
    inter-related because they depend on being able
    to analyze and synthesize human voice and images.
    Already, humans have failed the Turing test when
    communicating via printed text. When will
    computers be able to win when communicating via
    telephone or videophone? Given this capability
    and the extraordinary advances in processing and
    storage, we should be able to build systems that
    can record, store, and retrieve everything we
    have read (written), heard (said), and seen or
    been part of.

3
From Questionable...Great Research Book
Reports to Poor...Profitable Productand then a
miracle happens
  • For New Uses of PCs Conferencealso New
    Paradigms for Using Computers
  • July 1998
  • Gordon Bell
  • Microsoft Corp.
  • Bay Area Research Center

4
Research to Product Models
  • The Classical, Feed-Forward Process
  • Govt Model I. Fund product development then
    buy the products
  • Govt Model II. Issue challenge. Buy product.
  • We invented it, now productize it, stupid PARC
    I
  • We invented something, lets at least try to get
    our money back. PARC II
  • Fund a company for research development
  • Research as a recruiting tool
  • Hire good people, encourage interaction
  • Hire good people, large projects, do startups
  • Do it in/with product development
  • Fund university research and pray

5
Just say no to Uncle Samif a useful product is
the goal
  • Projects that large companies e.g. Xerox find
    marginal or VCs wont fund e.g. Kestrel
  • Model based on observing ARPA/DARPA SCI funding
    c1980s
  • Still in use, including ATP, SBIR
  • 30 projects c80s, NO successful products did
    succeed in demolishing Cray Research and vector
    processing. MPP yet to happen.
  • Fund technology product development, get
    military customers to buy the output.
  • Funding researchers is a different motivator than
    funding developers little in common

6
Heuristics for Government Funding
  • Fund University Research
  • Issue buy challenges to foster competition

7
The two great inventions
  • The computer (1946 realised in 1948). Computers
    supplement and substitute for all other info
    processors, including humans
  • Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds,
    and prices the challenge is to exploit them
  • Computers are built from other computers in a
    iterative, layered, and recursive fashion
  • The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated
    Circuit (1957).
  • Processors, memories, switching, and transduction
    are the primitives in well-defined
    hardware-software levels
  • A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other
    transducer technologies

8
Moores First Law
  • Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60
    increase per year
  • Chip density
  • Microprocessor speed
  • Exponential growth
  • The past does not matter
  • 10x here, 10x there means REAL change
  • PC costs decline faster than any other platform
  • Volume and learning curves
  • PCs are the building bricks of all future systems

9
Platform evolution How do they all connect?
10
Extrapolation from 1950s 20-30 growth per year
11
Gains if 20, 40, 60 / year
60 Exaops
1.E21 1.E18 1.E15 1.E12 1.E 9 1.E6
40 Petaops
20 Teraops
1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
12
Alternative Computing Futures
  • Metropolis (1926)
  • Forbidden Planet (1956)
  • 2001 (1968)

Photos courtesy of Microsoft Cinemania
13
Going forward SIX challenges
  • Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
    conversation
  • Everything will be in Cyberspace
  • Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
    ownership risk
  • Telepresence
  • The Guardian Angel for health
  • The Cyber Admin for personal use

14
Turing test you cant tell whos on the other
end when communicating with a machine using
  • Text
  • Voice
  • Visual image and voice

15
Going forward challenges
  • Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
    conversation
  • Everything will be in Cyberspace
  • Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
    ownership risk
  • Telepresence
  • The Guardian Angel for health
  • The Cyber Admin for personal use

16
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!
Body
Continent
Car
Region/ Intranet
Home
Campus, including SANs
World
Fractal Cyberspace a network of networks of
platforms
17
Everything will be in Cyberspace
  • Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate? or
  • Cyberization enables new computing platforms
    thatrequire new networks to connect them
  • Infrastructure supports the content
  • Three evolutionary dimensions

18
Cyberization interface to all bits and process
information
  • Coupling to all information and information
    processors
  • Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video
  • Bit tokens e.g. money, stock
  • State of places, things, and people
  • State of physical networks

19
Atoms vs Electrons for bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless) people
know computers know bricks mortar anywhere
(personnel/clients) office hours anytime database
reports web access for review and
transactions letter fax email web
access phone email, voice video mail personal
visits videophone / videomail signature authentica
ted images envelopes digital envelopes / store
20
By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion
people on the net.Bet Nicholas Negroponte
1KBet Nicholas Negroponte 1K5K it
happens by 2002.Also 1 T of commerce by 2001.
21
Why this is the keystone bet!
  • It determines the market
  • for networks
  • for access devices especially PCs
  • It says something about the utility
  • commerce
  • communication
  • entertainment
  • Increased network capacity ubiquity enables
  • phones
  • videophones
  • television
  • serendipity

22
Internetters growth
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
World Populationextrapolated at 1.6 per year
Internet Growthextrapolated at 98 per year
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
23
Internetters growth
World Population
10000 1000 100 10
TVs Phones
1 Gp by 2000Negroponte
PCs
Internetters
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
24
Growth in hype
Data from Gordons WAG
25
Cyberspace A spiraling quest in 3D real space
Computation
Cyberization
Communication
26
Cyberspace one, two or three networks? in
2005, 2010, 2020
27
Going forward challenges
  • Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
    conversation
  • Everything will be in Cyberspace
  • Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
    ownership risk
  • Telepresence
  • The Guardian Angel for health
  • The Cyber Admin for personal use

28
Atoms that represent money, ownership, risk
29
New or old money its just bits
Credit
ATM /
Prepaid
Check
Cash
Prepaid
30
Put those checks statements in Cyberspace or
eliminate them!
31
Buying selling stock what a pain!Faxes?
Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.
32
Paperless transactions put them all in Cyberspace
33
Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits
Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless) money data
base, smart card, credit card, debit
card statements web access bills / checks bill
present. / check free coupons cyber-coupons stock
database, web statements, reports web access,
email company infor, analyst reports,
etc. private placements web access, email trade
confirmation direct trades mail voting on line
voting
34
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35
Going forward challenges
  • Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
    conversation
  • Everything will be in Cyberspace
  • Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
    ownership risk
  • Telepresence
  • The Guardian Angel for health
  • The Cyber Admin for personal use

36
Telepresence being there while being here, at
another time, and with time scaling
  • Telepresentations
  • Telemeetings
  • The work

37
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38
MotivationTelepresentations
  • Presenter and/or audience telepresent

NOT meeting or collaboration settings Forget the
nasty social issues!
Mostly one-way
39
TelepresentationElements
  • Slides
  • Audio
  • Video
  • Script, text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

40
TelepresentationsThe Essentials
  • Slide and audio a must
  • Add some video (low quality) to make us feel
    good
  • Storage and transmission costs low

41
TelepresentationsThe Killer App
  • Increased attendance lower travel costs
  • Practical and low-cost NOW
  • e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000
    visitors on Internethttp//research.microsoft.com
    /acm97

42
TodaysExperiment
  • Would you like to pause, rewind, browse?
  • Do you wish you could have seen this
  • At home?
  • At another time?
  • How much does a present speaker add? How much
    would you pay for real presence?

43
Telework It takes screens, sound, and
bandwidth, stupid
http//research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
44
Telepresence
  • hold a meeting of type, m
  • university or technical course
  • interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board
    meeting, annual meeting, town hall,
  • with p, distributed persons
  • with as much interactivity and feeling
  • such that people prefer being telepresent
  • meetings are provably more productive
  • meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus
    traditional synchronous

45
Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing
46
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47
Mobile videophone
48
Honda Robot
49
People surrogates
50
Telework It takes screens, sound, and
bandwidth, stupid
http//research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
51
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50 of
the PCs and be in use.

  • Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper, loser
    gets fed)

52
Living in Cyberspace
53
Intrastructure
54
SOHO (small office, home office)network
computing environment
IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) gt1.5
Mbps
POTS (legacy services)
NT Server for comm/network, POTS/IP gateway,
file, print, compute
LAN
NC
PC
PC
NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.
...
...
Phone
Phone
Phone
55
Not shown ECG GPS
Compass altimeter
PCS Pilot
Libretto, .5mm pencil
Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera Swiss Army Knife
56
Problems of living working in Cyberspace socio
vs technical
  • Isolation loneliness
  • need for communication/stimulation
  • chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas
  • loss of group/teamwork skills
  • danger of becoming terminal
  • interruptions focus
  • lack of support staff to help, answer ?s
  • supervision and ability to have 11
  • unclear that many people want it they simply
    need the contact with people

57
A People Model Who wants to be in Cyberspace?
Spock formal(in writing) Self-control informal
(verbal) Sally Field
Analyticals.. being right, detailed analretentiv
es
Driversresults orient. megalo-maniacs
Managing Interpersonal Relationships(MIR) 2D
Model
broadcast- push
email
Expressives...want recognition, need
contact psychotics
Amiablesconsensusbuilders spinelesswimps
--------------chat----------------
Intensity
Souter Evangelism Swaggert
58
Going forward challenges
  • Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
    conversation
  • Everything will be in Cyberspace
  • Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
    ownership risk
  • Telepresence
  • The Guardian Angel for health
  • The Cyber Admin for personal use

59
The Guardian Angel
60
Steve ManninCyberspace
61
MedtronicsImplantedCardioplastic
62
Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological
parameters1 GB
63
Going forward challenges
  • Turing test... Voice or Video Avatar any
    conversation
  • Everything will be in Cyberspace
  • Electrons, etc. replace atoms for money,
    ownership risk
  • Telepresence
  • The Guardian Angel for health
  • The Cyber Admin for personal use

64
The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memoryWhen
we can store everything weve read/written,
heard/said, seen/acted, plusphysical
parameters.
65
What does Cyber Admin do?
  • Captures the creation of all personal/professional
    information
  • Stores and organizes
  • Retrieval is the challenge
  • recalling readings, conversations, presentations,
    images
  • help in being the guardian angel
  • What are the apps when we can do this?

66
Vannevar Bush c1945
  • There will always be plenty of things to compute
    ... With millions of people doing complicated
    things.
  • memex stores all ones books, records, and
    communications, and ... can be consulted with
    speed and flexibility
  • Matchbook sized, .05 encyclopedia
  • Speech to text
  • Head mounted camera, dry photography

67
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68
Storing all weve read, heard, seen
Human data-types /hr /day
(/4yr) /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K
2 -10 M/G 60-300 G speech text _at_120wpm 43 K
0.5 M/G 15 G speech _at_1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2
T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25
T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
69
Sizes of various information stores that an
individual might need
  • Gigabyte 1,000,000,000 100-3,000 books
  • 10,000,000,000 disk, 4 years of read text
  • 300,000,000,000 lifetime of read text
  • Terabyte 1,000,000,000,000 lifetime of coded
    speech
  • 25,000,000,000,000 lifetime of video, low Q
  • 100,000,000,000,000 lifetime of video _at_.1Mbps
  • Petabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000 lifetime of hi-Q
    video

70
Some Tera-Byte Databases
Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta
  • The Web 1 TB of HTML
  • TerraServer 1 TB of images
  • Several other 1 TB (file) servers
  • Hotmail 7 TB of email
  • Sloan Digital Sky Survey 40 TB raw, 2 TB
    cooked
  • EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week)
  • 15 PB by 2007
  • Federal Clearing house images of checks
  • 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history)
  • Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program
  • 10 Exabytes (???!!)

71
Info Capture
Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta
A letter
A novel
  • You can record everything you see or hear or
    read.
  • What would you do with it?
  • How would you organize analyze it?

A Movie
Library of Congress (text)
LoC (image)
All Disks
Video 8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h) Audio 30 TB
(10KB/s) Read/write 8 GB (words) See
http//www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html
All Tapes
72
A letter
Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta
A novel
A Movie
LoC (text)
LoC (sound cinema)
LoC (image)
All Disks
All Photos
All Tapes
All Information!
73
10X in 40 years (6 per year)
74
Library Volume Growth 10X in 150 years
75
Now how do you find or use the rich information
Need the system to locate, retrieve, visualize,
order, up load the corporations IP assets
(text, proposals, images, videos, presentations,
etc.) with appropriate controls.
76
SmartMedia Technologies
Context Relevance
Image Recognition for Objects Speech
Recognition Image Recognition, Lexical
Cues Transcripts Close Caption Lexical Analysis
Viewing
Color
Previews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork
BW
Brightness
Contrast
Volume
Speech-Music
Meta Information
77
Virage Video Cataloger
78
Sizes of various information stores
  • Gigabyte 1,000,000,000 shelf of scanned paper,
  • large book stack
  • 10,000,000,000 movie, large disk
  • 200,000,000,000 2 floor library, videotape
  • Terabyte 1,000,000,000,000 million volume library
  • 20,000,000,000,000 Lib of Congress, disk array
  • Petabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000 a national library
  • 15,000,000,000,000,00 disk production 1995

79
Library of Congress bits...
  • Scanned LC 1PBassumes 6B pages
  • 13M photos 13TB
  • 4M maps 200TB
  • 500K movies 500TB
  • 3.5M recordings 2,000TB
  • 5 Bpeople or 2 GB per person

80
Publicly generated bits per year
  • Cinema 5K 200 TB
  • Images (all) 52G 520 PB
  • Broadcast (station)1500 200/10 PB
  • Recordings 100K 60 TB
  • Telephone (min.) 500G 400 PB
  • Videotapes

81
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82
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