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2010-2020: A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN REFRIGERATION AND AC

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Title: Slide 1 Author: WB176912 Created Date: 7/7/2008 8:01:12 AM Document presentation format: On-screen Show (4:3) Company: The World Bank Group Other titles – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: 2010-2020: A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN REFRIGERATION AND AC


1
2010-2020 A NEW DECADE OF CHANGES IN
REFRIGERATION AND AC
Lambert Kuijpers Technical University, Eindhoven
, NL UNEP TOC Refrigeration, AC and
Heat Pumps
Atmosphere 2009 Natural Refrigerants
Brussels 19-20 October 2009
1
2
The increased interest in natural refrigerants
  • Refrigerants such as ammonia, hydrocarbons,
    ethers, carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide etc. were
    the ones considered before the synthetic
    fluorocarbon refrigerants
  • For CFCs, refrigeration and AC considered HCFC
    and HFC (3rd generation) refrigerants as
    replacements the chemical industry now
    develops low-GWP HFCs (the 4th generation)
  • The IIR started meetings in 1994-1996 on natural
    refrigerants, that became Gustav Lorentzen
    conferences
  • UNEP TEAP reported on the potential of HFCs-PFCs
    in 1998
  • In 1999 a so called IPCC TEAP Joint Expert
    Meeting took place in Petten, NL, which
    considered both climate and ozone layer
    protection it was a meeting where there was
    substantial discussion on non-fluorocarbon
    refrigerants

3
The UNFCCC COP-8 in New Delhi, 2002
  • In 2002, at the Climate Meeting in New Delhi,
    IPCC and TEAP agreed in principle to do a
    Special Report on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer
    and the Global Climate System (afterwards
    officially agreed at MP MOP-14, Rome)
  • Published in 2005, after government approvement
    in Addis Abeba, the SR looked at HFCs and HFC
    replacements, it made first good estimates of
    banks, it studied production trends for synthetic
    refrigerants and mentioned the increasing
    potential for low GWP (natural non-fluorocarbon,
    other) refrigerants
  • In principle, the SR set the scene for Decisions
    XVIII/12, XIX/6, as well as the decisions XX/7
    and XX/8 on banks and emissions, and on HCFC and
    HFC alternatives, respectively

4
Climate component
  • This IPCC TEAP Special Report 2005 --as well as
    its Supplement Report with specific data on banks
    and emissions-- really introduced the climate
    component (the climate aspect) into many
    of the discussions and decisions under the
    Montreal Protocol
  • This is a good reason for describing here the
    results of the work requested to the Assessment
    Panel in various Montreal Protocol decisions, for
    elaborating on the climate component and its
    relation to natural refrigerants

5
Outline
  • Introduction
  • Decision XIX/6, the accelerated HCFC phase-out
  • Banks and emissions
  • Decision XX/7 on banks
  • Decision XX/8 on alternatives
  • The proposed HFC Amendment to the Protocol
  • Future outlook
  • Final comments to natural refrigerant applications

6
Climate impact of ODS avoided in 2 ways
  • By bank management
  • Montreal Protocol Parties are currently giving
    consideration to means of managing banks
  • Bank management is expensive and may exceed
    available grant-funding from MLF and other
    sources, in many cases
  • Leveraging carbon finance may be an important
    component in dealing with banks
  • By accelerating the phasing out of HCFC use
  • Decision XIX/6 provides the framework for doing
    this
  • Both ozone and climate benefits can result from
    this action
  • Climate impact much depends on the choice of the
    alternative
  • so what does Decision XIX/6 say
    about climate?

7
Decision XIX/6
  • encourages Parties to promote the selection
    of alternatives to HCFCs that minimise
    environmental impacts, in particular impacts on
    climate, as well as meeting other health, safety
    and economic considerations
  • To agree that the Executive Committee, when
    developing and applying funding criteria for
    projects and programmes . give(s) priority to
    cost-effective projects and programmes which
    focus inter alia on
  • Substitutes and alternatives that minimise other
    impacts on the environment, including on the
    climate, taking into account global warming
    potential, energy use and other relevant factors

8
Giving priority what does it mean ?
  • This could be giving priority in terms of
    timing, funding or overall selection
  • Prioritising timing only works if the
    technologies of choice are already available
  • Prioritisation of funding would mean that more
    funds would go to projects with climate benefits
  • However, does this mean conversely that less
    funds should go to projects with climate
    dis-benefits?
  • Prioritising in overall selection could mean that
    there are technologies that would not be
    supported

9
Back to Decision XIX/6
  • Climate benefit in Decision XIX/6 is an important
    criterion
  • In how far can the climate benefit be realised by
    natural refrigerants, related to superiour or
    high energy efficiency, low GWP, and acceptable
    costs for conversion projects for developing
    countries (supported by the Multilateral Fund)
  • Developments for low GWP HFC refrigerants are
    continuing
  • In how far can climate benefit be better realised
    (given the above conditions) by natural
    refrigerants compared to new --and further to be
    developed-- low GWP fluorocarbon (HFC or HFO)
    chemicals ?
  • At this stage there are clearly still
    uncertainties

10
Emissions and Consumption
  • Control of consumption Control
    of emission (Montreal Protocol)
    (Kyoto Protocol)
  • Controlling commercial availability
    Providing incentives and
  • of newly produced material
    monitoring to reduce

  • emissions vis-à-vis other GHG
  • CFC X
  • HCFC X
  • HFC
    X
  • ODS emissions from banks are not
    controlled !

11
Bank sizes foams and refrigeration and AC
12
Banks observations
  • CFC banks in countries are already small except
    for some refrigeration sectors in developing
    countries
  • HCFC banks are still to a large degree in
    operation (and replacement will come in due
    time)
  • Foams banks are huge in particular in developed
    countries, but difficult to reach (buildings)
  • Although the potential is large, more than 20 Gt
    CO2 from the point of view of climate relevance,
  • In reality the chance of avoiding of emissions
    from banks may be much smaller also related to
    (un)successful recovery
  • Destruction costs related to specific efforts,
    infrastructure...

13
Banks Decision XX/7 report
  • The amount of material in the bank will at a
    given moment be released to the waste stream,
    this over a number of years, which could exceed
    15 years (lifetime of products)
  • Foam in building applications difficult to reach,
    at high effort
  • There is a significant climate impact in the
    refrigerant releases in both developed and
    developing countries
  • Refrigerators (and their foams containing ODS)
    are important, due to the high numbers in
    operation globally
  • However, only part of the emissions from the bank
    can be avoided at relatively high cost XX/7
    reports give figures for the costs involved
    (order of US 1-3 billion/year globally)

14
The banks issue in future
  • Decision XX/7 work concentrated on a study of ODS
    banks
  • In future, the banks that are released to the
    waste stream will increasingly contain HFC
    substances
  • In the numbers derived (20 Gt CO2 eq.) this HFC
    content was already considered
  • If the capture of emissions (avoiding of
    emissions) will cost large amounts of money,
    which part could potentially be invested in
    converting to refrigerants that do not need
    emission avoiding such as ODS and HFCs for
    climate reasons ?
  • Could (part of) this future cost to society in
    either developed or developing countries be
    separated and invested upfront ?
  • Does this give an extra opportunity to natural
    refrigerants ?

15
Decision XX/8 on alternatives
  • Montreal Protocol Parties requested an overview
    of alternatives to HCFCs and HFCs in Decision
    XX/8
  • A long presentation was done in Geneva in July
    2009
  • All sectors (not only refrigeration and AC) were
    highlighted, however, most of the attention was
    paid to all the subsectors of refrigeration and
    AC
  • Some of the statements made for the different
    subsectors in refrigeration and AC follow below

16
Decision XX/8 (2)
  • Domestic Refrigeration HC-600a use expanding,
    and manufacturing is changing from HFC-134a to
    HC-600a
  • in Japan, USA, other countries
  • change driven by lower GWP, possibility of carbon
    credits, governmental incentives and restrictions
  • Commercial Refrigeration indirect systems using
    CO2 as a heat transfer fluid have been developed,
    as well as CO2, HC and NH3 and HFC blends are
    being used in Europe as primary refrigerants
    since more than 10 years and are currently
    expanding from a small percentage of the European
    installed base

17
Decision XX/8 (3)
  • Commercial Refrigeration small vending units
    increasingly apply hydrocarbons or CO2. A
    definite choice for the future concerning low GWP
    refrigerants for (large) centralised systems has
    not yet been made the technical solutions are
    still under evaluation
  • Large size refrigeration there is widespread use
    of ammonia, as well as emergent use of carbon
    dioxide where ammonia is not suitable. HCFCs were
    used in some markets, but HFCs have not been
    readily accepted as an alternative due to cost
    and reliability issues

18
Decision XX/8 (4)
  • Unitary AC HFC refrigerants, the R-410A and
    R-407C blends, have been dominant replacements
    for HCFC-22 in all categories of unitary air
    conditioners. Hydrocarbons have been used in
    some applications including lower capacity
    portable room units and split system air
    conditioners
  • Positive displacement chillers (screw-scroll-recip
    rocating)
  • R-717 (ammonia) is used today in chillers,
    particularly in Europe. R-717 chillers with heat
    recovery features offer high efficiency
  • Hydrocarbons are used today in chillers,
    particularly in Europe
  • Carbon dioxide (R-744) has a relatively low
    energy efficiency for most chiller applications.
    In cool climates such as Northern Europe, R-744
    chillers are accepted as viable alternatives to
    HFC chillers

14 July 2009
18
19
Decision XX/8 Mobile Air-conditioning
  • The EC Mobile Air Conditioning regulation
    (refrigerants with GWP lt150 in new model cars as
    of 2011, and in all new cars in 2017) has been an
    important driver
  • Status 2008-09 two candidates are top of the
    list
  • carbon dioxide and HFC-1234yf, an unsaturated
    HFC (HFO)
  • Standpoint of the automotive industry in Europe
    has always been that they would be going for
    CO2 US industry is silent
  • US EPA now asks for Public Comments to SNAP
    approval of HFC-1234yf this while more low-GWP
    HFCs are being developed (HFC-1234ze,
    HFC-1243zf)
  • The necessary MAC choice is still unclear if
    HFC-1234yf gets a substantial part of the MAC
    market it will have further impacts!

20
Decision XX/8 (6)
  • Which boundary conditions, or chances do exist
    (or do they not exist ?) for natural refrigerants
    compared to other low GWP synthetic fluorocarbon
    refrigerants in replacing fluorocarbon
    refrigerants, the HCFC/HFCs, throughout all
    subsectors ?
  • How and where can these chances be influenced ?

21
HFC Amendment proposed by Island States,
N.-America
  • To add HFCs with their GWPs in an Annex F to the
    Montreal Protocol
  • To add GWPs to the HCFCs already covered under
    the Protocol
  • To apply the concept of GWP-t, comparable to
    ODP-t, for the consideration of control schedules
    (on the basis of the usual country Article 7
    reporting) and requiring reporting of HFC
    production and consumption
  • To establish a baseline for controls consisting
    of HCFC HFC consumption in a given year
    (2004-2006, 2005)
  • Timelines are still optional

22
Amendment proposed
  • Defines a phase-down schedule for the developed
    countries as of 2013 (years and percentages in
    brackets), with some remaining HFC consumption
    after 2033, in analogy with US law circulating
  • Defines the same type of schedule for the
    developing countries with years and percentages
    less clear, with some remaining HFC consumption
    after 2043
  • Inserts an emissions clause (emissions limit) for
    HFC-23 from HCFC-22 production at a level of 0.1
    of the HCFC-22 quantity produced

23
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24
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25
Observations
  • HCFC schedules are already fixed for phase-out
  • In both developed and developing countries
  • The proposed HFC amendment does allow (some)
    growth
  • Dependent on the consumption of HFCs this
    phase-out schedule will allow for some further
    growth in HFC consumption until 2013
    (developed), or 2017 (developing)
  • As of these dates HFC consumption has to decrease
  • Emissions control may-must or will play a more
    important role in future (are drivers such that
    it will be more successful ?)
  • Can further HFC consumption decreases only be
    done by allowing alternatives to high GWP
    chemicals such as natural refrigerants, but
    also low GWP HFCs (in which sub-sectors) ?

26
Observations related to the HFC Amendment
  • Will or can the developed countries make the
    change to avoid the high GWP HFC route if they
    are still massively introducing HFCs in retrofits
    and in new equipment ?
  • HFC controls prohibit funding developing country
    conversions away from HFCs via CDM (Clean
    Development Mechanism)
  • Will developing countries make principal steps
    when a lot of funding issues are not cleared
    (including funding conversions from HCFC to HFC),
    to non-HFC climate positive alternatives ?
  • There are differences in opinion regarding the
    funding principles for developing countries
    between several developed country blocks

27
Questions developing countries
  • How can the question of funding a conversion that
    would avoid HFCs be resolved if rules for HCFC
    funding (following conventional approaches) have
    still not been agreed in practice for HCFC
    Phase-out Plans in developing countries ?
  • This implies a conversion to different
    approaches, equipment and products, with a better
    climate performance, but does this also imply
    that higher investments are allowed in future ?
  • An important question is whether Article 5
    countries will sign up to a regulation that would
    create a precedent for all other greenhouse gases
    (CO2), where they have agreed to not consider any
    binding regime and percentages (now)
  • Progress only in close co-operation between
    Protocols, if at all

28
Concluding observation HFC Amendment
  • How much time will Montreal Protocol Parties need
    for reaching whatever agreement on this Amendment
    ?
  • In how far will the Copenhagen negotiations
    outcome (after the Montreal Protocol MOP-21
    discussions in November) have an impact on the
    type of agreement that can be reached ?
  • Does this give extra opportunities for the
    application of low GWP refrigerants, natural
    refrigerants ?

29
Future outlook
  • Decision XIX/6 gives an extra stimulus to the
    possible application of natural refrigerants - if
    they are available (addressing safety and health)
    and at acceptable costs
  • The reports for Decision XX/7 on banks and
    emissions mention large amounts of funding
    required for climate mitigation an extra
    opportunity for natural refrigerants ?
  • Decision XX/8 mentions that natural refrigerants
    are used can their use be expanded ?
  • If the HFC Amendment would be accepted what does
    it mean for natural refrigerants versus other
    low-GWP ?

29
30
Final comment
  • At this moment there are many things moving in
    the conversion away from HCFCs and possibly from
    HFCs
  • Many of the elements currently considered
    internationally imply that significant changes
    can be expected in refrigeration and AC in the
    2010-2020 decade
  • A MAC sector decision may have large consequences
  • Is this altogether a clear opportunity for
    increasing the share of the natural refrigerants
    in many sub-sectors globally ?

30
31
  • Thank you !
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