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War and Peace: What can Game Theory Teach us?

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War and Peace: What can Game Theory Teach us? Robert Aumann Center for the Study of Rationality The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Based on: War and Peace http ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: War and Peace: What can Game Theory Teach us?


1
War and PeaceWhat can Game Theory Teach us?
  • Robert Aumann
  • Center for the Study of Rationality
  • The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

2
  • Based on
  • War and Peace
  • http//nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/
  • economics/laureates/2005/
  • aumannlecture.pdf

3
  • Wars and other conflicts are among the main
    sources of human misery.
  • Most attempts to bring about peace have been on a
    piecemeal, case-by-case basis.
  • Suggestion First try to understand the root
    causes WHY do people go to war?
  • Like one studies disease.

4
Rationality
  • Definition
  • We call a persons behavior rational if it best
  • promotes his goals, given his information.
  • Can war be rational?
  • Can strikes be rational?
  • Can racial or gender discrimination be rational?

5
Yes they CAN be!
  • We take all the ills of the world, and dismiss
  • them by calling them irrational. If they are
  • rational, once we understand that they are,
  • we can try to address the problem. If we
  • dismiss them as irrational, we cant address
  • the problem.

6
Economics (and Game Theory) in one word
  • Incentives
  • Example Taxes
  • Example Market Economies
  • Example Repeated Games
  • Repetition enables cooperation

7
Incentives for Peace
  • Concessions?
  • Munich 1938 Peace in our time
  • Disarmament?
  • The Cold War
  • The Pax Romana
  • If you want peace, prepare for war.

8
  • Barack Obama
  • The belief that peace is desirable
  • is rarely enough to achieve it.
  • -- Nobel Peace Prize Lecture,
  • Oslo, 10 December 2009

9
Repeated (or Ongoing) Games
  • Repetition Enables Cooperation

10
  • Example Mutual Generosity Game
  • Two players, Alfonso and Bob.
  • Each one must choose between
  • getting 1,000 for himself (Egoism)
  • and
  • the other getting 3,000 (Cooperation)

11
Bob
C
E
0,4 3,3
1,1 4,0
C
Alfonso
E
12
Real-Life Examples
  • Acreage restrictions
  • Fisheries
  • Competition

13
How to achieve cooperation?
  • Agree to cooperate!
  • But why will the players play as agreed? Whats
    in it for them? Why is it worthwhile?
  • Mechanism for enforcing agreements
  • Like a law court
  • Pray for the governments welfare, for
  • without its authority, man would swallow
  • man alive. (Talmud)

14
  • But what if there are no courts?
  • Like in the international arena.
  • Then Repetition can provide an enforcement
    mechanism,
  • And so, enables cooperation.
  • How?
  • With an implicit punishment strategy.
  • Conclusion Patience a long horizon is
    essential.

15
Additional Incentives for Peace
  • Clear signals
  • Credible signals
  • Carrot and Stick
  • Incentives must apply directly to policy
    architects

16
  • It shall come to pass that many people will
    say, let us go up to the mountain of the Lord,
    and He will teach us His ways And He will
    judge among nations, and they will beat their
    swords into ploughshares, and their spears into
    pruning hooks nation will not lift up sword
    against nation, nor shall they learn war any
    more. (Isaiah 2, 2-4)

17
  • Based on
  • War and Peace
  • http//nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/
  • economics/laureates/2005/
  • aumannlecture.pdf

18
  • Thank You!
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