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The Future Of The Middle East

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The Future Of The Middle East Wayne Radinsky Boulder Future Salon 2011-03-26 Cause: Price Of Food? Price Of Food? (cont'd) Egypt is the world's largest importer of ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Future Of The Middle East


1
The Future Of The Middle East
  • Wayne Radinsky
  • Boulder Future Salon
  • 2011-03-26

2
(No Transcript)
3
Oil Exports
  • Saudi Arabia 8,728,000 barrels/day
  • Iran 2,400,000
  • Iraq 1,910,000
  • Algeria 1,891,000
  • Libya 1,542,000
  • Oman 573,000
  • Sudan 303,800
  • Yemen 274,400

4
Oil Exports (cont'd)
  • Bahrain 238,300
  • Syria 155,000
  • Egypt 89,300
  • Tunisia 77,130
  • Morocco 17,420
  • Djibouti 19
  • All others 0

5
Unemployment Rate
  • Yemen 35
  • Mauritania 30
  • Libya 30
  • Sudan 18.70
  • Iraq 15.30
  • Oman 15
  • Bahrain 15

6
Unemployment (cont'd)
  • Iran 14.6
  • Tunisia 14
  • Jordan 13.40
  • Saudi Arabia 10.8
  • Algeria 9.9
  • Egypt 9.7
  • Syria 8.3

7
GDP Growth
  • Yemen 8.0
  • Egypt 5.1
  • Sudan 5.1
  • Mauritania 4.7
  • Djibouti 4.5
  • Oman 4.2
  • Libya 4.2
  • Bahrain 4.1

8
GDP Growth (cont'd)
  • Saudi Arabia 3.7
  • Tunisia 3.7
  • Algeria 3.3
  • Syria 3.2
  • Morocco 3.2
  • Jordan 3.1
  • Iran 1.0
  • Iraq 0.8

9
Population
  • Egypt 82,079,700
  • Iran 77,891,300
  • Iraq 30,399,600
  • Saudi Arabia 26,131,800
  • Yemen 24,133,500
  • Syria 22,517,800
  • Tunisia 10,629,200
  • Libya 6,598,0001

10
Population Growth Rate
  • Bahrain 2.81 /year
  • Yemen 2.65
  • Sudan 2.48
  • Iraq 2.399
  • Mauritania 2.35
  • Djibouti 2.24
  • Libya 2.06
  • Oman 2.02

11
Population Growth Rate (cont'd)
  • Egypt 1.96
  • Saudi Arabia 1.54
  • Iran 1.234
  • Morocco 1.07
  • Jordan 0.98
  • Tunisia 0.98
  • Syria 0.91
  • Lebanon 0.24

12
Life Expectancy
  • Jordan 80.05
  • Bahrain 78.15
  • Libya 77.65
  • Lebanon 75.01
  • Tunisia 75.01
  • Syria 74.69
  • Oman 74.22
  • Saudi Arabia 74.11

13
Life Expectancy (cont'd)
  • Egypt 72.66
  • Iraq 70.55
  • Iran 70.06
  • Yemen 63.74
  • Djibouti 61.14
  • Sudan 55.42

14
Median Age
  • Yemen 18.1
  • Mauritania 19.5
  • Iraq 20.9
  • Djibouti 21.8
  • Syria 21.9
  • Jordan 22.1
  • Oman 24.1
  • Egypt 24.3

15
Median Age (cont'd)
  • Libya 24.5
  • Saudi Arabia 25.3
  • Morocco 26.9
  • Algeria 27.6
  • Tunisia 30
  • Sudan 30
  • Bahrain 30

16
Religion
  • Saudi Arabia 100 Muslim
  • Mauritania 100 Muslim
  • Yemen Muslim including Shaf'i (Sunni) and Zaydi
    (Shia), small numbers of Jewish, Christian, and
    Hindu
  • Algeria 99 Muslim, Christian and Jewish 1
  • Tunisia 98 Muslim, 1 Christian, 1 Jewish and
    other

17
Religion (cont'd)
  • Sudan 98 Muslim, 1 Christian, 1 Jewish and
    other
  • Iran 98 Muslim (89 Shia, 9 Sunni), 2
    Zoroastrian, Jewish, Christian, and Baha'i
  • Libya 97 Sunni Muslim, 3 other
  • Iraq Religion 97 Muslim (60-65 Shia, 32-37
    Sunni), 3 Christian or other. The Christian
    population has dropped by 50 percent since the
    fall of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003, with
    many fleeing to Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon.

18
Religion (cont'd)
  • Djibouti 94 Muslim, 6 Christian
  • Jordan 92 Sunni Muslim, 6 Christian, 2 other
    including Shia Muslim and Druze
  • Egypt 90 Muslim (mostly Sunni), Coptic 9,
    other Christian 1
  • Bahrain 81.2 Muslim, 9 Christian, 9.8 other
  • Oman 75 Ibadhi Muslim, 25 Sunni Muslim, Shia
    Muslim, and Hindu

19
Religion (cont'd)
  • Syria 74 Sunni Muslim, 16 Shia, Alawite, and
    Druze Muslim, 10 Christian, tiny Jewish
    communities in Damascus

20
Ethnicity
  • Egypt 99.4 Egyptian, 0.4 other
  • Algeria 99 Arab-Berber, European lt 1, almost
    all Algerians are Berber in origin, not Arab the
    minority who identify themselves as Berber live
    mostly in the mountainous region of Kabylie east
    of Algiers the Berbers are also Muslim but
    identify with their Berber rather than Arab
    cultural heritage Berbers have long agitated,
    sometimes violently, for autonomy
  • Morocco 99.1 Arab-Berber, Jewish 0.2

21
Ethnicity (cont'd)
  • Tunisia 98 Arab, 1 European, 1 Jewish and
    other
  • Jordan 98 Arab, 1 Circassin, 1 Armenian
  • Libya 97 Berber and Arab, 3 Greeks, Maltese,
    Italians, Egyptians, Pakistanis, Turks, Indians,
    Tunisians
  • Syria 90.3 Arab, 9.7 Kurds and Armenians
  • Saudi Arabia 90 Arab, 10 African and Asian
  • Iraq 75-80 Arab, 15-20 Kurdish, 5
    Turkoman, Assyrian, or other

22
Ethnicity (cont'd)
  • Bahrain 62.4 Bahraini, 37.6 other
  • Djibouti 60 Somali, 35 Afar, 5 French, Arab,
    Ethiopian, and Italian
  • Iran 51 Persion, 24 Azeri, 8 Gilaki and
    Mazandarani, 7 kURD, 3 Arab, 2 Lur, 2 Baloch,
    2 Turkmen, 1 other
  • Sudan 50 black, 39 Arab, 6 Beja, 3 other
  • Mauritania 40 mixed Moor black, 30 Moor,
    black 30

23
Ethnicity (cont'd)
  • Yemen predominantly Arab also Afro-Arab, South
    Asians, Europeans
  • Oman Arab, Baluchi, South Asian (Indian,
    Pakistani, Sri Lankan, Bangladeshi), African

24
Languages
  • ARABIC is the official language for almost all
    countries involved (all but Iran).
  • English understood by educated classes in Egypt,
    Libya, Jordan, Bahrain, and Oman
  • French understood by educated classes in
    Mauritania, Algeria, Morocco, Djibouti, Egypt,
    and Syria.
  • Asian dialects like Farsi and Urdu understood by
    some in Bahrain and Oman
  • Native dialects in many countries (e.g. Berber)

25
Historical Precedent? 1989
  • Pro-democracy demonstrators overthrew a string of
    Soviet bloc communist dictatorships in a matter
    of months through generally non-violent methods.
  • The movement arose in Poland when the opposition
    group Solidarity rose to power and soon spread to
    Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria,
    and finally Romania, where the unrest turned more
    violent and the dictator and his wife eventually
    faced a firing squad.

26
1989 (cont'd)
  • Similarities spontaneous, domino-like way in
    which today's protests have migrated from one
    Arab country to another.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel who grew up in
    East Germany and entered politics in 1989
    claimed that Middle East protesters were "shaking
    off their fear" just as Eastern Europeans had.

27
1989 (cont'd)
  • Differences Eastern Europeans supported America
    because it was the Soviet Union's sworn enemy,
    while demonstrators in the Middle East are
    suspicious of the U.S. (George Soros)
  • Middle East protests "have been uprisings against
    a sclerotic and out of touch leadership" whereas
    in in Eastern Europe "the change was much deeper,
    systemic." (James Collins)

28
Historical Precedent 1968?
  • In 1968, a year dominated by the war in Vietnam
    and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia,
    student and worker protests convulsed countries
    ranging from Mexico to Czechoslovakia to the U.S.
    Perhaps the most high-profile rebellion occurred
    in France in May, when students swarmed the
    streets, clashed violently with police, and
    joined forces with workers, paralyzing the French
    economy for several weeks.

29
1968 (cont'd)
  • Similarities "A largely leaderless revolt of the
    young, and a government initially in disarray,
    ending as the middle classes demanded a
    restoration of order and the government regained
    control of the situation." (Michael D. Mosettig)
  • French students, like the young Egyptian
    protesters, rose up because they had bleak job
    prospects after completing their studies. (Amiel
    Unger)

30
1968 (cont'd)
  • Differences The 1968 protests "overthrew no
    regime even temporarily and left some cultural
    remnants of minimal historical importance."
    (George Friedman) "The democracies that
    eventually arise will produce regimes that will
    take their bearings from their own culture, which
    means Islam."

31
Historical Precedent 1948?
  • In 1848, a revolution in France triggered similar
    uprisings in almost every other country in
    Europe. Historians attribute the reform
    movements, which were largely spearheaded by the
    middle class, to a variety of causes ranging
    economic hardship to the influence of
    nationalism, liberalism, and socialism. The
    revolutions were largely unsuccessful. In France,
    for example, protesters ousted the monarch only
    to see the republic they created crumble shortly
    thereafter. The German states failed to unite as
    they had hoped.

32
1948 (cont'd)
  • Similarities The Middle East protests, like the
    revolutions of 1848, "are the product of multiple
    changes economic, technological, demographic
    and have taken on a distinctly different flavor
    and meaning in each country." (Anne Applebaum).
  • The revolutions of 1848 failed in the near term,
    but planted the seeds for change over a longer
    period. By 1900, Bismarck had united Germany and
    France had established its Third Republic.

33
Historical Precedent NONE?
  • New in Cairo 2011 is that it is now Arabs and
    Muslims standing up in large numbers, with
    courage and (for the most part) peaceful
    discipline, for basic human dignity, against
    corrupt, oppressive rulers. New in 2011 is the
    degree of decentered, networked animation of the
    demonstrations, so that even the best-informed
    observers there struggle to answer the question
    'who is organising this?'. New in 2011 is the
    extraordinary underlying pressure of demography,
    with half the population in most of these
    countries being under 25. (Timothy Garton Ash)

34
Cause Price Of Food?
35
Price Of Food? (cont'd)
  • Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat,
    and wheat prices have been rising. But the
    Egyptian government also subsidizes staple food
    items 70 percent of Egyptians rely on subsidized
    food. Since the 2008 riots which really were
    about bread the government has been keeping
    food prices for basics relatively stable. David
    Pollock (Washington Institute For Near East
    Policy)

36
Cause Generation Gap?
  • Worldwide generational conflict will grow.
    Around the planet young adults are asserting
    themselves in the workplace and in political
    arenas. Protests against entrenched governments
    will increase in frequency and severity. (Jon
    Tapscott, Jan. 7th 2011).

37
Generation Gap (cont'd)
  • My young cousins who are in their 20s and early
    30s are part of the Tahrir generation. Tahrir
    means Liberation in Arabic. The world got to know
    the Tahrir generation over a mere 18 day period
    in which that generation rocked the foundation of
    the status quo in the Middle East and perhaps
    beyond. That generation reached adulthood in the
    age of social media. Their brilliance,
    resourcefulness, and organizational skills took
    down what was perceived to be a rock solid 30
    year regime in only 18 days. (Kai Falkenberg)

38
Cause Satellite TV/Al-Jazeera?
  • To my mind the Western press completely did not
    deal with the problem of Al-Jazeera, which is
    still, for the time being, the real leader of
    these demonstrations, revolutions if you like.
    Al-Jazeera turned its cameras from the first days
    of the demonstrations to Tahrir Square and
    incited the demonstrators against the regime.
    Zvi Mazel (Former Israeli Ambassador to Egypt)

39
Cause Wikileaks?
  • "Tunisia has been ruled by the same president for
    22 years. He has no successor. President Ben
    Ali and his regime have lost touch with the
    Tunisian people. They tolerate no advice or
    criticism, whether domestic or international.
    Increasingly, they rely on the police for control
    and focus on preserving power. Corruption in the
    inner circle is growing. The risks to the
    regime's long-term stability are increasing."
    (Robert Godec, US ambassador to Tunisia, July
    2009, revealed by Wikileaks)

40
Cause Facebook?
  • If all 85,000 Facebook attendees of tomorrow's
    'Revolution Day' actually show up, Abdel Moneim
    Said might have his theory that the regional
    fallout from Tunisia was little more than 'media
    sensationalism' to the test. TIME Magazine
    reporter Abigail Hauslohner, January 24th, 2011,
    the day before the Egyptian protests began.

41
Facebook (cont'd)
  • The people who are signing up to protest on
    Facebook arent the sort of people whod normally
    get involved in politics. In the past the
    activists have often been Islamists, but now the
    Internet is reaching out to a new generation.
    Mohammed Nabil (Cairo University student)

42
Cause other social media?
  • Cell phone towers deactivated in Egypt no text
    messaging
  • Twitter, Facebook, and Youtube blocked in Egypt
  • By Feb 2 entire internet shut down in Egypt
  • Feb 3 Egyptian government broadcasted their own
    text messages

43
5 Future Scenarios
  1. Rapid transition to democracy (what everyone
    hopes for)
  2. Long period of turmoil, followed by democracy
  3. Long period of turmoil, followed by... more
    turmoil
  4. Transition back to dictatorship, but perhaps
    under different dictators
  5. Religious theocracy (Muslim Brotherhood etc
    the scenario Fox News seems to fear the most.)

44
  • THE END

45
Sources
  • Map http//culturekitchen.com/files/2010-2011Midd
    leEastUprisings.png
  • Statistics https//www.cia.gov/library/publicatio
    ns/the-world-factbook/index.html
  • Historical Precedent http//www.theatlanticwire.c
    om/global/2011/02/choose-your-middle-east-historic
    al-comparison-1989-1968-or-1848/21021/
  • Wheat Price Chart http//futures.tradingcharts.co
    m/chart/CW/W

46
Sources (cont'd)
  • Quotations
  • http//dontapscott.com/2011/01/07/top-trends-and-d
    evelopments-for-2011/
  • http//blogs.forbes.com/kaifalkenberg/2011/02/16/m
    ubarak-is-out-but-the-generational-clash-in-egypt-
    continues/
  • http//www.5tjt.com/international-news/9622-former
    -israeli-ambassador-to-egypt-accuses-al-jazeera-of
    -fomenting-chaos
  • http//newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/isla
    msadvance/2008/05/egypts_facebook_revolution.html
  • http//www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2044
    142,00.html
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