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MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 12

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Title: Met 10 Author: Dr. Eugene Cordero Last modified by: jin Created Date: 12/9/1993 6:56:40 PM Document presentation format: On-screen Show Other titles – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 12


1
MET 112 Global Climate Change Lecture 12
  • Controls on Climate Change
  • Professor Menglin Jin
  • Outline
  • IPCC
  • CA Efforts on Energy
  • Kyoto Treat

2
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
  • stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
    in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
    dangerous anthropogenic human induced
    interference with the climate system. Such a
    level should be achieved within a time-frame
    sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally
    to climate change, to ensure that food production
    is not threatened and to enable economic
    development to proceed in a sustainable manner

3
Figure Courtesy of IPCC
4
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5
Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis WGI
contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report
  • Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
  • Drafted by a team of 59
  • Approved sentence by sentence
  • by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)

14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515
Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted
6
IPCC Assessment Report
  • IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise
    (warming).
  • Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative
    radiative forcing (cooling)
  • The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
    human influence on global climate
  • (IPCC) 1997
  • "There is new and stronger evidence that most of
    the warming observed over the last 50 years is
    attributable to human activities .
  • (IPCC), 2001
  • (IPCC) 2007

7
IPCC Assessment Report
  • IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise
    (warming).
  • Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative
    radiative forcing (cooling)
  • The balance of evidence suggests a discernible
    human influence on global climate
  • (IPCC) 1997
  • "There is new and stronger evidence that most of
    the warming observed over the last 50 years is
    attributable to human activities .
  • (IPCC), 2001
  • The IPCC finds that it is very likely that
    emissions of heat-trapping gases from human
    activities have caused most of the observed
    increase in globally averaged temperatures since
    the mid-20th century.
  • (IPCC) 2007

8
Human Responsibility for Climate Change
The IPCC finds that it is very likely that
emissions of heat-trapping gases from human
activities have caused most of the observed
increase in globally averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century.
Source IPCC Climate Change 2007 The Physical
Science BasisSummary for Policymakers.
9
Model Sensitivity
  • Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive
    systems.
  • They can respond differently to the same
    radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2
  • This means that different models give different
    answers to the same problem
  • Thus, we use a range of models to determine the
    range of possible future scenarios.

10
Model Sensitivity
  • Models (like the atmosphere) are sensitive
    systems.
  • They can respond differently to the same
    radiative forcing, e.g., a doubling of CO2
  • Thus, we use a range of models to determine the
    range of possible future scenarios.

11
Emission Scenarios

SRES (special report on emission scenarios)
12
Scenarios
13
CO2 concentrations (amount)
14
Future Predictions Temperature
15
Notes on Temperature Projections
  • Curves represent warming produced for seven
    scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.
  • Each bar on right represent range of warming
    produced

16
Notes on Temperature Projections
  • Projected Warming 2000 2100 ranges from 1.4C
    to 5.8C.
  • Curves represent warming produced for seven
    scenarios by a model with average sensitivity.
  • Each bar on right represent range of warming
    produced
  • by models of differing sensitivies for a specific
    scenario.

17

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990 Global Average in 2085 3.1oC
18
Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990 Global Average in 2085 3.1oC
19
Annual mean precipitation change 2071 to 2100
Relative to 1990
20
Some areas are projected to become wetter, others
drier with an overall increase projected
Annual mean precipitation change 2071 to 2100
Relative to 1990
21
Sea Level
22
Sea Level Rise
Annual mean precipitation change 2071 to 2100
Relative to 1990
23

24
Questions
  • What percentage of electricity generation comes
    from the burning of natural gas?
  • What percentage of transportation energy comes
    from natural gas burning?
  • What percentage of transportation energy use
    comes from coal?
  • If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly
    likely source of energy?
  • Where does most residential energy come from?

25
Energy and Climate Change
  • Obviously, one of the main issues related to
    climate change is the burning of fossil fuels
  • Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand for
    energy are central to the challenges of climate
    change.

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28
Tons of CO2 emitted per person
29
US CO2 Emissions
  • Total emissions 5,788.5 million metric tons
  • 22 metric tons per person
  • Industry 35
  • Transportation 33
  • Residences 18
  • Commercial 14
  • 1,600 million metric tons due to personal use
    (33)

30
Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)
  • Automobile fuel 38 gallons per month Natural
    Gas 15 therms per month
  • Electricity 190 Kilowatt-hours per month
  • Airline Miles flown  147 miles per month Total
  • Latest estimate
  • Kyoto allowance (for US)
  • To stabilize climate (550ppm)

31
Average US Personal Energy Use (Per Person)
  • Automobile fuel 38 gallons per month Natural
    Gas 15 therms per month
  • Electricity 190 Kilowatt-hours per month
  • Airline Miles flown  147 miles per month Total
  • Latest estimate 17,600 lbs of CO2
  • Kyoto allowance (for US)
  • 11,000 pounds
  • To stabilize climate (550ppm)
  • 4,700 pounds

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Mitigation of climate change
  • Mitigation
  • Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative
    environmental impacts.
  • Mitigation can include
  • avoiding the impact by not taking a certain
    action
  • minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or
  • magnitude of the action
  • rectifying the impact by repairing or
  • restoring the affected environment

34
Climate Change Impacts
  • What signals would we expect from a warmer world?
  • Higher average temperature
  • Higher maximum temperatures
  • Higher minimum temperatures
  • More precipitation
  • Higher sea level
  • etc
  • What evidence do we have for changes in the
    20th century?

35
The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan,
on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on
16 February 2005
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement
linked to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. The major feature
of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding
targets for 37 industrialized countries and the
European community for reducing greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of
five per cent against 1990 levels over the
five-year period 2008-2012.
36
The Kyoto Protocol
  • A United Nations sponsored effort
  • Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions
    by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below
    1990 levels.
  • The Protocol will go into force after
  • The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55
    countries.
  • The ratifying nations comprise 55 of global
    greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Current status
  • 156 countries have signed accounting for 61 of
    global CO2.
  • US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts
    for 36 of CO2 emitted)
  • Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005

37
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim
  • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals
  • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant
    sectors of the national economy

38
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Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim
  • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals
  • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant
    sectors of the national economy
  • Protection and enhancement of sinks

40
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41
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim
  • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals
  • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant
    sectors of the national economy
  • Protection and enhancement of sinks
  • Promote sustainable agriculture

42
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43
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim
  • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals
  • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant
    sectors of the national economy
  • Protection and enhancement of sinks
  • Promote sustainable agriculture
  • Research and promote new and renewable energy

44
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50
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim
  • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals
  • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant
    sectors of the national economy
  • Protection and enhancement of sinks
  • Promote sustainable agriculture
  • Research and promote new and renewable energy
  • Phase out any incentives for bad practice

51
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52
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim
  • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals
  • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant
    sectors of the national economy
  • Protection and enhancement of sinks
  • Promote sustainable agriculture
  • Research and promote new and renewable energy
  • Phase out any incentives for bad practice
  • Encourage good practices

53
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55
Kyoto Protocol
  • Aim
  • Ways to reduce increasing GHG
  • Goals
  • Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant
    sectors of the national economy
  • Protection and enhancement of sinks
  • Promote sustainable agriculture
  • Research and promote new and renewable energy
  • Phase out any incentives for bad practice
  • Encourage good practices
  • Cut GHG from aviation

56
Kyoto Targets
  • Industrialized countries will reduce their
    collective emissions by 5.2 compared to the year
    1990
  • Note that compared to the emissions levels by
    2010 without the Protocol, this target represents
    30 cut).
  • Calculated as an average
  • over the five-year period of 2008-12.
  • Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon
    dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur
    hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs

57
  • HFC - Hydrofluorocarbons
  • PFC- perfluorocarbon, a powerful greenhouse gas
    emitted during the production of aluminumPFC

58
Kyoto Targets
  • National targets
  • European Union - 8 below 1990 levels
  • USA - 7 below 1990
  • Japan - 6 below 1990
  • Russia 0 (stay at 1990 levels)
  • Australia 8 over 1990 levels)
  • Developing countries (no target)
  • China, India etc.

59
Kyoto Targets Developing countries
  • The UN Framework on Climate has agreed
  • The largest share of historical and current
    global emissions of greenhouse gases
  • Per capita emissions in developing countries
  • The share of global emissions originating in
    developing countries
  • will grow to meet their social and development
    needs.

60
Kyoto Targets Developing countries
  • The UN Framework on Climate has agreed
  • The largest share of historical and current
    global emissions of greenhouse gases
  • has originated in developed countries
  • Per capita emissions in developing countries
  • are still relatively low
  • The share of global emissions originating in
    developing countries
  • will grow to meet their social and development
    needs.

61
The Kyoto Mechanisms
  • Under the Treaty, countries must meet their
    targets primarily through national measures.
    However, the Kyoto Protocol offers them an
    additional means of meeting their targets by way
    of three market-based mechanisms.
  • The Kyoto mechanisms are
  • Emissions trading known as the carbon market" 
  • Clean development mechanism (CDM)
  • Joint implementation (JI).

62
Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms
  • Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall
    worldwide reduction by at least 5 below 1990
    levels by 2008-2012
  • Countries can meet their commitments together
  • Joint implementation -Countries can work together
    to meet their emission reduction targets.
  • Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing
    countries to achieve sustainable development and
    limit GHG increases and then claim some emission
    reductions for their own targets
  • Emissions trading - countries can trade in
    emission units

63
Emissions Trading
  • Each country has an emission limit.
  • If this country cannot meet its target, it may
    purchase carbon credits from other countries (on
    the open market) who are under their limit.
  • This financially rewards countries that meet
    their targets.
  • Countries also receive carbon credits through

64
Emissions Trading
  • Each country has an emission limit.
  • If this country cannot meet its target, it may
    purchase carbon credits from other countries (on
    the open market) who are under their limit.
  • This financially rewards countries that meet
    their targets.
  • Countries also receive carbon credits through
  • clean energy programs (i.e. greentags)
  • carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)

65
CO2 emissions for various scenarios
Kyotos eventual goal
66
Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto
Protocol? Economic burden No limits on
developing countries (i.e. China,
India) Protocol is not going to help much
"We will not do anything that harms our economy,
because first things first are the people who
live in America" - President Bush
67
Solutions - government
  • Kyoto Protocol
  • California potential leader

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71
Solutions - personal
  • Transportation
  • Home
  • Food
  • Consumption

www.earthday.net Top 10 Actions Ecological
Footprint
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Four Rs
  1. Rethink
  2. Reduce
  3. Reuse
  4. Recycle

74
  • Report Issued in 2004
  • Sections include

75
  • Report Issued in 2004
  • Sections include
  • Climate projections
  • Sea levels
  • Extreme heat
  • Health impacts
  • Water resource
  • Agriculture and vegetation

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77
What is Heat Wave?
  • A heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively
    hot weather
  • may be accompanied by high humidity
  • Definition recommended by WMO
  • The definition recommended by the World
    Meteorological Organization is when the daily
    maximum temperature of more than five consecutive
    days exceeds the average maximum temperature by
    5 C (9 F), the normal period being 1961 - 1990.

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Class Participation
Your name_________
  • By 2050, which city has the longest heat wave
    days? Why?
  • What are the differences between the low
    emission and high emission cases in terms of heat
    wave days by 2090 for city Riverside? How about
    city LA?
  • How many people may die due to heat wave in SF in
    2050 and 2090?

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82
Climate change and California
  • Average Temperature
  • Winter - warmer winters - snowpack declines by
    70-90 by 2090
  • Summer warmer summers (5-15F by 2090)
  • Coastal cities coastal erosion by sea level
    rise.
  • Human health Urban air pollution/heat extremes
    impact most vulnerable
  • Water resources Total water, but early runoff
    from Sierras costly to adapt.
  • Agriculture Major challenge to various crops
    industries.
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