This is one of the most common graphs we see today; it depicts world population growth over the past 1000 years; - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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This is one of the most common graphs we see today; it depicts world population growth over the past 1000 years;

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The UN World Health Organization has played a major role here. This has brought new hope for better health to millions of the world s population. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: This is one of the most common graphs we see today; it depicts world population growth over the past 1000 years;


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This is one of the most common graphs we see
today it depicts world population growth over
the past 1000 years it could go back 200,000 and
not look much different.
3
Two major Green House Gasses, carbon dioxide and
methane, have risen along with population. This
looks like population is causing global
warming..BUT
4
If we look at a larger picture, it is clear that
population growth was accompanied by major
changes in energy technology and in social
organization, that is by the rise of urban
industrial society. Thus.
5
How did this major transformation happen? Why
did population grow rapidly? Did the change
occur at the same time in all part of the
world? Will population continue to grow? What are
some of the major implications for current
problems? To address these questions we must
first turn to a universal pattern of the modern
world The Demographic Transition This is the
transition from high to low birth and death
rates. There have been TWO major demographic
transitions Past and Present
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The past epidemiological transition moved
slowly from high, variable, death rates and
infectious diseases to low, stable, death rates
and degenerative diseases. Here is Swedens
crude death rate from 1750 to 2000
8
Today, death rates can be reduced more rapidly.
Chinas CDR fell more in 40 years than Swedens
did in 200 years
9
A more telling figure is the fall in the Infant
Mortality Rate. Chinas IMR fell in 40 years as
much as Swedens fell in 200 years
10
There are two major reasons for the increased
speed of the new transitions New medical
technology to attack infectious diseases New
Global organizations to spread that technology
rapidly. The UN World Health Organization has
played a major role here. This has brought new
hope for better health to millions of the worlds
population.
The same holds for the fertility transition, with
another twist
11
Let me remind you of Swedens Birth and Death
Rates, its demographic transition.
12
Chinas birth rate fell as much in 40 years as
Swedens fell in 200 years.
13
Here is another picture, showing how rapidly
fertility can decline in the modern world.
14
Again the reason for the greater speed of change
lies in a new medical technology the vast array
of modern contraceptives available since about
1965. There was also a major policy change the
ANTINATALIST POLICY REVOLUTION, led by India,
starting in 1952. Good family planning programs
speed the transition and improve health. In
addition, the United Nations, especially the
Population Fund, helped move that new technology
throughout the world rapidly. UNFPA has
supported family planning programs throughout the
world The result has been a vast improvement in
reproductive health, especially in the health of
poor women and children
15
Fertility reduction improves health in a number
of ways
16
Fertility reduction also reduces maternal
mortality
17
Babies tending babies the picture of high
fertility. Poor children beside the Irrawaddy in
Mandalay, Burma
18
Successful family planning. A young Thai mother
with her daughter, Nong Khai, Thailand
19
Family planning programs have been described as
some of the most cost-effective development and
health programs we have. But there is a more
important point to be made. Successful family
planning programs provide immediate improvements
in the health of women and children. These are
usually the people who benefit last and least
from other types of development programs. In
effect, they provide health improvements to those
who usually get them last. But there is another
problem as well..
20
Rapid population growth reduces health and
welfare AND produces a rapidly growing young
population.
21
Young males (15-19 years old) are a highly
energetic, inexperienced, and volatile
population. They can be led to acts of heroism,
making them attractive to infantry
sergeants They can be led to acts of great
altruism And they can also be led to acts of
terrible violence, as we saw, for example, in the
Tutsi-Hutu genocide Much depends on the
leadership and social infrastructure that gives
them some hope for the future. But demographics
also show their numbers will increase rapidly.
22
One example reduced fertility means fewer young
males
23
The growth of young males will be greatest in
those regions least able to provide them with
schools, jobs, or hope.
24
Much depends on what governments are willing and
able to do. Where health and education are given
high priority, the future can look very
promising. As in Thailand..
25
Young men are all in schools, sports and scouts,
with reasonable chances for jobs. And their
numbers are declining! There were 3.1 million in
1985 and 2.8 million in 2000.
26
In Pakistan the scenario if far less
hopeful. Government expenditures are heavily
weighted to the military. Education and health
receive far lower priorities.
27
There is also extensive female seclusion.
28
The Pakistani government is currently unable to
provide good educational and health services to
its population. People have given up on
government private services of all kinds are
growing rapidly. More seriously.
There are currently some 8 million young males in
Pakistan. Their numbers will certainly grow to
about 12 million over the next 20 years. With no
schools or jobs for most, where will they go?
What will they do? The potential for instability
within Pakistan, between Pakistan and India (two
nuclear powers), and in the rest of South Asia is
substantial.
29
This observation has special relevance today
Islam and religious terrorism today Moderate
Islamic scholars say that deliberate pursuit of
death is proscribed by Islamic law. But in
planning a holy war, the theological point
carries little weight against the advantage that
men like Osama bin Laden and Sheik Yassin see in
martyrdom. For them, the great ally is the anger
and despair of those they recruit to their cause,
commonly young men raised in poverty, and in the
Palestinians case, in the destitution and
institutionalized anger of refugee camps. In
Afghanistan, Yemen or Gaza GDN or Pakistan, the
hard fact is that many of those who ready
themselves to die have little on earth to
cherish. John F. Burns The Promise of
Paradise That Slays Peace, NYT, Sunday, April
1, 2001. See also Bruce Hoffman, 1998, Inside
Terrorism, New York Columbia University Press.
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