GROWTH SET TO CONTINUE: Marco-Economic Outlook for Asia/Pacific

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GROWTH SET TO CONTINUE Marco-Economic Outlook
for Asia/Pacific
GDP growth ()
Size of Middle Class (in million)
Highest growth region with changing trade
patterns and increasing portion of domestic demand
Every 1 gained in private consumption translates
into over 70b more in consumption
1) Source Economist Intelligence Unit Update 2)
Master Card estimates
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REGION ASIA THE NATURE OF THE BEAST
Singapore
Japan
Thailand

• Chinese, Malay, Indian, Others
• English, Malay, Mandarin, etc.
• Christian, Buddhist, Muslim, etc
• gt80
• 48.2

Ethnic groups Languages Religions
sales of modern trade Ave. price per footwear
()

• 99 Japanese
• 1 Others
• Japanese
• ShintoBuddhist,Others
• gt90
• gt48

Ethnic groups Languages Religions
sales of modern trade Ave. price per footwear
()
China
Ethnic groups Languages Religions
sales of modern trade Ave. price per footwear
()

• 75 Thai
• 8 Chinese
• 17 Others
• Thai
• Buddhist, others
• 30
• 14.1

India

• 93Chinese
• 7 others
• Mandarin
• gt100dialects
• Confuc-ianism Buddhism,Taoism,others
• lt10
• 3.4

Ethnic groups Languages Religions
sales of modern trade Ave. price per footwear
()
Ethnic groups Languages Religions
sales of modern trade Ave. price per footwear
()

• 336 major tribes
• Hindi
• 1,600 dialects
• Hindu
• Muslim
• Others
• lt5
• 2.3

People
TradeStruc.
Pricing
High
Mid
Economic development
Low
Very Low
Source Lit search CIA Factbook BCG analysis
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REGION ASIA THE NATURE OF THE BEAST
Population in mio. Population in mio. Population in mio. Population in mio.
2001 2007 FC 2015 FC 2016 FC
China 1,278 1,339 1,380 1,386
India 1,027 1,112 1,235 1,250
Indonesia 214 232 254 257
Japan 127 127 125 125
Vietnam 80 89 94 95
Philippines 78 85 100 102
Thailand 63 63 66 66
Korea 47 49 51 51
Malaysia 24 25 29 30
Taiwan 22 24 24 24
Australia 19 20 22 22
Hong Kong, China 7 6 9 9
New Zealand 4 4 4 4
Singapore 3 4 4 4
Calcutta 2,993 3,179 94,217 95,055

• Population

• Half of the world population
• Young population
• gt50 below 30 years old
• Increasing concentration in cities
• 30 0 to 14 years old

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ASIA PACIFIC RELATIVE SIZE OF ECONOMIES
10000
China
India
1000
Indonesia
Japan
Philippines
Vietnam
100
Korea
Thailand
Population (million)
Malaysia
Taiwan
10
Hong Kong
Singapore
100
100000
10000
1000
GNI Per Capita (US) 2002
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ASIA PACIFIC RELATIVE SIZE OF ECONOMIES MEASURED
WITH PURCHASING POWER PARITY
10000
China
India
1000
Indonesia
Thailand
Japan
100
Korea
Philippines
Population (million)
Vietnam
Taiwan
Malaysia
10
Hong Kong
Singapore
1000
10000
100000
GNI Per Capita (US) 2002 PPP
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THE 30 LARGEST CITIES IN THE WORLD
City Country Ranking Population
Tokyo Japan 1 33,413,000
Mexico Mexico 2 21,701,925
New York USA 3 21,199,865
Seoul South Korea 4 20,156,800
Sao Paulo USA 4 20,156,800
Jakarta Indonesia 6 18,206,700
Osaka-Kyoto-Kobe Japan 7 17,646,900
Delhi India 8 17,367,300
Mumbai India 9 17,340,900
Los Angeles USA 10 16,895,945
Le Caire Egypt 11 16,244,700
Calcutta India 12 14,362,546
Buenos Aires Argentine 13 14,235,106
Manila Philippines 14 14,140,000
Moscow Russia 15 12,622,400
City Country Ranking Population
Shanghai China 16 12,190,000
Rio de Janeiro Brazil 17 11,629,629
Teheran Iran 18 11,475,100
Paris France 19 11,376,193
Ruhr Germany 20 11,291,100
Karachi Pakistan 21 10,807,800
Dhaka Bangladesh 22 10,545,897
Istanbul Turkey 23 10,301,400
Londres Royaume Uni 24 10,229,219
Lagos Nigeria 25 9,529,700
Beijing China 26 9,376,200
Bangkok Thailand 27 9,308,924
Chicago USA 28 9,157,540
Kinshasa-Brazzaville Congo 29 8,915,800
Nagoya Japan 30 8,657,000
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UNDERSTANDING ASIA
By 2010

• 30 towns of gt5 million habitants 2 in USA,
  6 in Europe)
• Shanghai, Bombay gt 20 million
• Beijing, Indonesia, Manila, Calcutta, Delhi,
  Tianjin, Dacca gt15 million

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UNDERSTANDING ASIA
NOMINAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FOR ASIA-PACIFIC AT A
GLANCE
6 Megatrends in the Region
Nominal private consumption (US Bn)

• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world

2003
2008
Asia-Pacific Aggregate
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UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region

• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world

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UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region

• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world

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UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region

• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world

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UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region

• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianization of the world

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CHALLENGES FOR ASIA PACIFIC

• Poverty
• Unemployment
• Financial Fragility
• Infrastructure
• Corruption
• Deregulation Trade Liberalization

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THE TOP 20 BRANDS ACROSS EIGHT ASIAN MARKETS
BRAND CATEGORY
1 Sony Consumer electronics
2 Nokia Mobile phone
3 Kodak Camera/Film/Office Equipment
4 Panasonic Computer/Consumer electronics
5 Coca-Cola Soft drinks
6 Canon Camera/Office equipment
7 Toyota Automotive/Motorcycle
8 Honda Automotive/Motorcycle
9 Fuji Camera/Consumer electronics
10 Nike Sports apparel/Accessories/Footwear
11 Rolex Luxury watch/Accessories
12 McDonalds Fastfood/Coffee chain
13 Mercedes-Benz Automotive
14 BMW Automotive/Motorcycle
15 Shell Petrol/Oil company
16 adidas Sports apparel/Accessories/Footwear
17 Samsung Automotive/Consumer electronics
18 Marlboro Cigarette
19 7-Eleven Convenience store/Supermarket
20 Yahoo Internet search engine
Source media Portfolio 16 July 2004
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