Energy and Climate- Solutions from the Land

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Energy and Climate- Solutions from the Land
Nuffield Australian Farmers Conference March
8, 2010 Ernie Shea 25x25 Project Coordinator
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25x25 a National Alliance
Formed through a grant from the Energy Future
Coalition Organized to explore agriculture and
forestrys role in energy production Evolved to
now include a diverse collection of agricultural,
forestry, conservation, environment and business
organizations and leaders
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New Energy Future

• Fossil fuel resources are finite and diminishing
• Global energy consumption is increasing (nearly
  60 by 2030)
• The world population is growing (9.1 billion by
  2050)
• Fast-developing economies like India and China
  are demanding more resources
• Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing (World
  carbon dioxide emissions expected to increase by
  1.9 annually between 2001 and 2025)

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Our Vision
By the year 2025, Americas farms, ranches and
forests will provide 25 percent of the total
energy consumed in the U.S. while continuing to
produce safe, abundant and affordable food, feed
and fiber.
25x25
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This is a food, feed, fiber and fuel vision, that
is economically viable for our society. With
emerging technology we can produce multiple
commodities.
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25x25 is a BIG goal
2025
2004
31.7 Quads Renewable Energy
5.74 Quads Renewable Energy
99.7 Quads Total Energy Consumed
127.0 Quads Total Energy Consumed
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We will meet this goal by
Producing transportation fuels Harnessing wind
energy Converting biogas emissions Capturing
solar, hydro, and geothermal energy Providing
biomass for generating heat and power
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25x25 Future
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A 25x25 Energy Future Means
700 billion in annual economic growth 4-5
million new jobs 100 billion gallons of domestic
biofuels 15.45 quads of renewable electricity 1
billion ton reduction in GHG emissions
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Governors Endorsements
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State Legislature Resolutions
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25x25 is now a national renewable energy goal!
Passed by Congress as part of HR6 Signed into law
by President Bush on December 19, 2007
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Critical Challenges Opportunities

• Biofuel pushback
• Sustainability issues
• Woody biomass contributions
• Role of agriculture and forestry in a reduced
  carbon economy

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Copenhagen Statement

• Forestry and agriculture are where poverty
  reduction, food security and climate change come
  together and must be addressed in an integrated
  fashion
• (key message to negotiators from the ag and
  forestry communities, COP 15, Dec. 14, 2009)

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25x25 Carbon Work Group

• Charge analyze agriculture and forestrys role
  in a reduced-carbon economy and develop
  recommendations for how each sector can
  capitalize on efforts to reduce and capture
  carbon and greenhouse gas emissions.

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Areas of Focus

• Ag and forestry impacts and opportunities
• Mechanisms to manage GHG emissions
• How ag and forestry could best participate
  in emerging carbon markets and
• Guiding principles and policy imperatives

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Carbon Work Group Key Findings

• Agriculture and forestry are uniquely positioned
  to deliver low-cost, near term and valuable
  solutions from the land
• Energy and national security
• Economic development
• Environmental services
• Energy efficiency
• Under the right policy platform agriculture and
  forestry have much to gain from this opportunity.

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Ag and forestry- responsible for 7 percent of
total U.S. GHG emissions
Source EPA 2007
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Have the potential to offset 10 - 25 percent of
total annual U.S. GHG emissions
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Ag Reduction Opportunities

• Sequestration
• Conservation tillage and crop rotations
• Cover crops
• Grazing practices
• Biochar
• Avoided emissions
• Biofuel production
• Thermal bio-power and bio-heat
• Renewable electrical power
• Emission reductions
• Manure management
• Fertilizer practices

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Carbon Policy Imperatives

• Economically viable
• Include emission reductions, biological
  sequestration and avoided emissions
• Be outcome oriented and technology neutral
• Must be enforceable and allow ag and forestry to
  deliver reductions
• Recognize early actors

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Primary Challenges

• Costs
• Changes in operating practices
• Tracking and selling offsets
• Increased input cost (esp. fuel and fertilizer)
• Getting the correct enabling policy in place
• Development of viable markets
• Informing ag and forest sectors of opportunities,
  challenges, alternatives and consequences
• Shaping our own destiny

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America is on a path to a low-carbon energy
future that aims to
improve national security strengthen the economy
contribute positively to the quality of life
provide a cleaner environment
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What is taking us there?

• Administrations Energy Goals
• Congressional Actions
• EPA Actions
• Supreme Court and Federal Appeals Court Actions

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Congressional Action

• Waxman-Markey (June 09)
• Kerry- Boxer (Sept. 09)
• Stabenow CEPA
• Kerry-Lieberman-Graham bill
• Collins-Cantwell Cap and Dividend bill
• Energy- only approach

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Unresolved Policy Issues

• Carbon price mechanism
• Renewable Energy Incentives (RES)
• Transmission Upgrades
• Definition of eligible biomass
• Indirect land use issues
• Costs and impacts to economy
• Nukes and Clean Coal

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Where are we?

• Renewable energy now 10.5 percent of total U.S.
  energy production
• Sheen on bioenergy solutions is fading
• Policy makers focusing on ultra cleans
• Ag is a divided house defensive strategies
• Food, feed, fiber, energy and climate challenges
  not being managed in an integrated fashion.
• Lack a comprehensive national energy plan

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Whats coming?

• Pressure to deliver sustainable energy solutions
  will increase
• Climate change challenges will escalate
• 2 trillion global clean energy market
• China is rushing to capture this market
• Emerging opportunity to be compensated for
  environmental services

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Potential Gross Revenue
Source EPA 2007
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Carbon as a Revenue Crop
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UT-25x25 StudyCrop Net Returns by Selected
Scenario 2010 2025
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Total Net Returns, 2025Multiple Offsets / RCN
Forage Replacementchanges from baseline
Regional impacts of Cap-and-Trade predominantly
positive
Includes agriculture, livestock, forest
residues, methane
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Total Net Returns, 2025Multiple Offsets / RCN
Herd Reductionchanges from baseline
However, regional impacts vary by livestock
treatment
Includes agriculture, livestock, forest
residues, methane
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Points to Ponder

• We are on a path to a low carbon energy future
• Multiple drivers for change
• Regulatory solution looming if Congress fails to
  act
• Global Climate Change talks continuing
• Ag and forestry are well positioned to deliver
  solutions to climate change

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America wants and needs a new energy future that
is
cleaner improves national security strengthens
the economy contributes positively to the
quality of life Agriculture can contribute to
these outcomes!
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www.25x25.org