Population Stabilization Issues: Specific Reference to India Prasanta Kumar Saha Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society, UK, Chartered Statistician, UK. Visiting Fellow of EWC, USA. (Former) Additional Director General, GOI E-Mail :

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Population Stabilization Issues
Specific Reference to India Prasanta Kumar
SahaFellow of the Royal Statistical Society, UK,
Chartered Statistician, UK. Visiting Fellow of
EWC, USA. (Former) Additional Director General,
GOIE-Mail prasant20012001_at_yahoo.co.in
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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• INTRODUCTION
• POPULATION MAY BE TERMED AS A MOST FASCINATING
  NATURAL PHENOMENON ON MOTHER EARTH. ITS,
  PERHAPS, GODS MOST BEAUTIFUL CREATION!
  SIMILARLY THE EVENTS OF FERTILITY MORTALITY OF
  THE HUMAN BEINGS AND THEREBY POPULATION GROWTH
  ARE ALL PURELY NATURAL PHENOMENA.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
• CONCEPT OF POPULATION STABILIZATION
  IS A VERY SOPHISTICATED AND SCIENTIFIC CONCEPT.
• MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE CLEAR
  PERCEPTIONS ABOUT THIS PHENOMENON.
• IN INDIA SITUATION IS NOT ENCOURAGING.
• IN THIS COUNTRY THIS CONCEPT IS QUITE RECENT.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
• THE ISSUE OF POPULATION STABILIZATION PS HAS
  RECEIVED MORE ATTENTION SINCE LATE NINETIES.
• THE PROCESS OF POLICY FORMULATION ON FAMILY
  WELFARE PROGRAM HAS PLACED SERIOUS THOUGHT TO PS
  ISSUE IN
• 1996- 97 ALONG WITH RCH PROGRAM.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• INTRODUCTION-CONTD.
• THE TERM OF POPULATION STABILIZATION AS SUCH
  HAD FIGURED IN THE POLICY FORMULATION ON FAMILY
  WELFARE PROGRAM IN 1996-97 IN THE DOCUMENT OF
  RCH PROGRAM.
• AT THE END OF THE YEAR 2000 PS WAS INTRODUCED AS
  A FULLFLEDGED POLICY IN THE NATIONAL POPULATION
  POLICY-2000 NPP2000 FORMULATED IN THE END OF
  2000 BY THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA DEPARTMENT OF
  FAMILY WELFARE, MINISTRY OF HEALTH FW.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• DEFINITION
• POPULATION STABILIZATION IS A SCIENTIFIC TERM. IN
  ESSENCE, IT IS A DEMOGRAPHIC CONCEPT AS IT IS
  WELL KNOWN, DEMOGRAPHY IS THE IMPORTANT BRANCH OF
  THE STATISTICAL SCIENCE.
• AS PER DEMOGRAPHIC DEFINITION, BY POPULATION
  STABILIZATION WE MEAN CONSTANT BIRTH RATES AND
  CONSTANT DEATH RATES IN THE SPECIFIC AGE
  STRUCTURE OF A POPULATION OVER A PERIOD OF TIME.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• DEFINITION-CONTD.
• MORE SPECIFICALLY, A POPULATION WILL BE TERMED TO
  ATTAIN STABILITY IF IT ACHIEVES REPLACEMENT LEVEL
  OF FERTILITY i.e. IF TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
  TFR2.1.
• THE PERCEPTIBLE TIME PERIOD IS GENERALLY NOT
  CATEGORICALLY DEFIEND OVER WHICH AGE-SPECIFIC
  BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES WILL
  REMAIN CONSTANT SO THAT A POPULATION WILL BE
  DECLARED TO HAVE ATTAINED STABILITY.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• DEFINITION-CONTD.
• THE TIME PERIOD OF PS AND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF
  PS IS DEPENDENT UPON
• A)THE CURRENT DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF A
  POPULATION.
• B) DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION,THE THEORY OF WHICH
  IS LINKED WITH CLASSICAL INGREDIENTS OF
  DEMOGRAPHIC MODERNIZATION.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• DEFINITION-CONTD.
• C) CLASSICAL TRANSITION THEORY THOUGH IN SOME
  ENVIRONMENTS OR REGIONS TRANSITION REMAINS A
  FUZZY CONCEPT.
• IF A POPULATION EXHIBITS CONSTANT AGE SPECIFIC
  FERTILITY AND MORTALITY, THE POPULATION WILL
  EVENTUALLY SHOW A CONSTANT AGE DISTRIBUTION AND
  WILL THEREAFTER INCREASE WITH CONSTANT GROWTH
  RATE.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• DEFINITION-CONTD.
• ASSUMPTIONS THIS DEFINITION IS BASED ON A NO.
  OF ASSUMPTIONS AS STATED BELOW
• 1) FOR ANALYTICAL PURPOSE, FEMALE POPULATION
  IS CONSIDERED AS IT PASSES THROUGH A DEFINED
  INTERVAL OF FERTILE AGES
• 2)STOCHASTIC APPROACH THAT A FEMALE CHILD
  JUST BORN WILL SURVIVE UPTO CERTAIN AGE X, IS
  ASSOCIATED WITH FIXED PROBABILITY, SAY, A(X).

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• DEFINITION-CONTD.
• ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD
• 3) STOCHASTIC APPROACH THERE ALWAYS EXISTS A
  PROBABILTY, SAY, B(X) THAT A FEMALE WHO IS ALIVE
  AT CERTAIN AGE X WILL BEAR A FEMALE CHILD
  BETWEEN AGE X XdX.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• DEFINITION-CONTD.
• ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD
• 4) LET L IS THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE RANGE OF
  AGES 0 TO L SO THAT AT AGE L, A(X)O. LET L1 L2
  ARE 2 AGES SO THAT 0ltL1ltL2ltL. THEN B(X)0 WHEN
  XltL1 AND XgtL2 i.e. B(X)0 OUTSIDE THE INTERVAL
  (L1, L2). IN THIS CASE L2 IS THE MAXIMUM
  REPRODUCTIVE AGE OF A FEMALE.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• DEFINITION-CONTD.
• ASSUMPTIONS-CONTD
• 5) THE POPULATION IS CLOSED TO MIGRATION.
• UNDER THIS THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AS NARRATED
  ABOVE, THE OBJECTIVE OF THE STABLE POPULATION
  MODEL IS TO FIND OUT THE DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS
  OF THE POPULATION WHICH STARTS WITH A SPECIFIC
  AGE STRUCTURE AND PASSES THROUGH A SPECIFIC
  DEMOGRAPHIC PERIOD.
• AGE STRUCTURE OF A STABLE POPULATION IS THUS TIME
  INVARIANT.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• STABLE POPULATION MODEL
• CONCEPT ORIGINATED IN 1911
  F. R. SHARPE A. J. LOTKA.
• THE CHARACTERISTIC EQUATION OF THIS MODEL IS AS
  FOLLOW
• Exp-rx A(x)B(x) dx 1, 0ltxlt t,
• A(x) B(x) have been defined earlier

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• STABLE POPULATION MODEL-CONTD
• LET B INTRINSIC BIRTH RATE IN STABLE
  POPULATION. THEN,
• 1
• B ----------------- ò
  Exp-rx A(x) dx
• Where 0 lt X lt

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• STABLE POPULATION MODEL-CONTD
• Let Pt Proportion of Stable Population at time
  t.
• Then , Pt B Exp-rtA(t).
• r Rate of Growth of a stable population.
• AT THE END OF A GENERATION, A STABLE
  POPULATION WILL BE LARGER BY A MAGNITUDE WHICH IS
  EQUAL TO NET REPRODUCTIVE RATE NRR.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• IMPORTANT FEATURES OF A STABLE POPULATION
• INDIA POLICY DECISION OF THE GOVERNMENT IS THE
  DETERMINANT OF FERTILITY IN CONTRAST TO MANY
  DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WHERE INDIVIDUAL COUPLES ACT
  PRIMARILY IN THEIR OWN INTEREST.
• CONCEPT OF POPULATION CONTROL IS YET TO BE
  EMBEDDED WITH THE CULTURE OF THE PEOPLE
  PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL INDIA.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD
• DURING LAST ABOUT ONE DECADE MANY EUROPEAN
  COUNTRIES HAVE ACHIEVED STABLE POPULATION.
• INDIA HAS TO WAIT A VERY LONG PERIOD OF AT LEAST
  ANOTHER 4 DECADES TO ACHIEVE IT. THAT ALSO
  DEPENDS ON MANY UNPREDICTABLE FACTORS.
• AS PER NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY 2000 NPP200 ,
  INDIA MAY EXPECT POPULATION STBILIZATION BY 2045.
  THUS THE COUNTRY IS TO WAIT FOR ABOUT A CENTURY
  AFTER HER INDEPENDENCE TO HOPE FOR ACHIEVEING
  THIS.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD
• THERE ARE DEARTH OF DETAILED STUDIES OR SERIOUS
  RESEARCH IN THE SUBJECT OF POPULATION
  STABILIZATION IN INDIA.
• THEREFORE NO RELEVANT REFERENCE MATERIALS FOR
  PROVIDING PRACTICAL GUIDANCE ON IMPLEMENTATION OF
  POPULATION STABILIZATION TECHNIQUES IS
  AVAILABLE.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD
• POPULATION STABILIZATION IS NOT A SIMPLE ISSUE.
  RATHER IT IS A COMPLICATED SUBJECT DEPENDING ON
  SOCIAL, ECONOMICAL, DEMOGRAPHIC, POLITICAL,
  RELIGIOUS AND OTHER FACTORS.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• IMPORTANT FEATURES-CONTD
• THE PROCESS OF ACCEPTANCE OF CONTRACEPTIVES BY
  THE PEOPLE IS ABSOLUTELY VOLUNTARY. THIS STATE OF
  AFFAIRS DOES NOT PROVIDE CLEAR-CUT ENCOURAGING
  TREND AND DOES NOT EXHIBIT A VERY DEPENDABLE
  BEHAVIOUR TOWARDS ACHIEVING PS.
• THIS CULTURE DOES NOT GIVE A FILLIP TOWARDS A
  FASTER PROCESS OF STABILIZATION.

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Population Stabilization Issues
Specific Reference to IndiaPOPULATION OF INDIA
DURING 1951-2001YEAR POPLNMILN
1951 361 1961 439 1971 548 1981 683
1991 846 2001 1027
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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• TFR OF INDIA DURING 1951-2001
• YEAR TFR
• 1951 6.0
• 1961 5.5
• 1971 5.0
• 1981 4.5
• 1991 3.8
• 2001 3.0Estimated

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• CONCLUSION
• POPULATION STABILIZATION ISSUE IS A QUITE
  COMPLICATED ISSUE.
• IN A SOCIETY LIKE INDIA EMBRACING VOLUNTARY
  APPROACH TOWARDS FAMILY PLANNING, IT IS A MATTER
  OF HIGH SPECULATION WHETHER THE COUNTRY WILL
  ULTIMATELY ACHIEVE A STABLE POPULATION BY THE
  YEAR 2045 AS MENTIONED IN THE NATIONAL POPULATION
  POLICY 2000.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• CONCLUSION-CONTD
• EVEN THE POPULATION TOUCHES THE THRESHOLD OF
  STABILITY AFTER 4 DECADES FROM NOW, BY THAT TIME
  ABOUT 700 MILLION PEOPLE MAY GET ADDED
  ESTIMATING BY DETERMINISTIC PROJECTION METHOD
  WITH MODEST GROWTH RATES VARYING FROM 1.1 TO
  ABOUT 1.7 DURING THE FOUR DECADES. THUS BY THE
  YEAR 2045 THE POPULATION MAY BE ABOUT 1700
  MILLION THIS ESTIMATION PERTAINS ENTIRELY TO
  THIS AUTHOR.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• CONCLUSION-CONTD
• IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS TOWARDS STABILIZATION
  PROCESS BECOMES TOO TOUGH IN VIEW OF VOLUNTARY
  APPROACH ON THE ONE HAND AND VERY LOW
  CONTRCEPTIVE PREVALENCE RATE ABOUT 45 ON
  THE OTHER.

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Population Stabilization Issues Specific
Reference to India

• CONCLUSION-CONTD
• ONE GOOD ASPECT OF THE PRESENT HIGH POPULATION
  ACCOMPANIED WITH HIGH GROWTH RATE IS THAT INDIA
  WILL, PERHAPS, NEVER FACE THE PROBLEM LIKE
  DEPOPULATION OR DEEQUILIBRIUM IN HER DEMOGRAPHIC
  PATTERN.

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THANKS
Prasanta