Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist Southern Outlook Conference September 22- 24, 2008 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist Southern Outlook Conference September 22- 24, 2008

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Given global food price inflation, the scattered global food riots, and now a global financial crisis – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist Southern Outlook Conference September 22- 24, 2008


1
Rice Situation and Outlook Robert Coats,
Professor and Extension Economist Southern
Outlook Conference September 22- 24, 2008
Rice - protected commodity Given global food
price inflation, the scattered global food
riots, and now a global financial crisis Do you
now believe that rice will be less or more
protected by the major rice producing countries
of the world?
Monthly Rice
2
U.S. Long Grain Rice Harvested By State
1996-2008, Thousand Acres
Primary U.S. rice discussion will be on long
grain rice
3
U.S. Medium Grain Rice Harvested By State
1996-2008, Thousand Acres
4
U.S. Short Grain Rice Harvested By State
1996-2008, Thousand Acres
5
U.S. All Rice Harvested Acres, 1972-2008
1,000 Acres
U.S. rice acreage declines with increasing cost
of production and increased price uncertainty
6
Rice, Weekly Food inflation/riots
Corn, Weekly
Soybeans, Weekly
Wheat, Weekly
7
RICE WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Nominal Rice Quotes
2007 to Present
Thai 100 grade B
U.S. long grain, No. 2, 4
Vietnam, 5 percent
One Outcome From High Rice Price Was Food Riots
8
Food riots were expected
9
April 10, 2008
10
Why is there a rice supply problem? U.S. and
global rice supplies are tight but adequate.
Problem Hording, processing, distribution
and/or availability
11
World Rice Milled Consumption and Production
1979/80 2008/09
Millions of Metric Tons
3 of 4 8 of 13
12
World Rice Ending Stocks 1978/79-2008/09
Millions of Metric Tons
Global ending stocks are projected to increase 4
in 2008/09
13
(No Transcript)
14
World Rice Area Harvested 1978/79-2008/09
Millions of Hectares
15
World Rice Milled Production 1978/79-2008/09
Millions of Metric Tons
16
World Rice Trade Calendar Year 1980-2009
Millions of Metric Tons
Protectionism Financial Crisis
17
U.S. Long Grain Rice Situation
18
U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 2008/09
Million hundredweight
All Rice
4
19
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83
2008/09
Million hundredweight
2
20
U.S. All Rice Imports 1970/71 2008/09
Million hundredweight
21
U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual
1982/83 2008/09
Million hundredweight
2
22
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83
2008/09
Million hundredweight
Long Grain
3
23
U.S. All Rice Rough Exports 1970/71 2008/09
Million hundredweight
3
24
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 2008/09
Million hundredweight
3
25
U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83
2008/09
Million hundredweight
26
(No Transcript)
27
Rice Outlook
28
World Rice Ending Stocks 1978/79-2008/09
Millions of Metric Tons
Improvements in global supply and availability
are projected Global supply will remain tight
but adequate Significant damaging global weather
event would once again raise major concerns about
supply availability
29
World Rice Milled Consumption and Production
1979/80 2008/09
Millions of Metric Tons
The major rice producing countries stand ready to
take any required action to maintain adequate
production
3 of 4 8 of 13
30
World Rice Trade Calendar Year 1980-2009
Millions of Metric Tons
Exporting countries have and will continue to
meet their commitment Slowing global economy
Results in drop in global rice prices
Protectionism Credit Crisis
31
RICE WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE Nominal Rice Quotes
2003 to Present
Thai 100 grade B
U.S. long grain, No. 2, 4
Vietnam, 5 percent
32
(No Transcript)
33
U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 2008/09
Million hundredweight
USDAs optimism about yields will not be realize
which will provide rice prices some support
34
Financial Crisis Bearish For Rice Prices
35
Dow Jones - Industrial Average
More weakness than strength
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
36
U.S. Dollar Index
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
37
CBOT Corn
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
38
CBOT Corn
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
39
CBOT Wheat
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
40
CBOT Wheat
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
41
CBOT Soybeans
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
42
CBOT Rough Rice
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
43
CBOT Rough Rice
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/
44
U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83
2008/09
Million hundredweight
45
Rice Long Grain Monthly Chart
USDA 2008/09 16.26 per cwt Market direction
46
(No Transcript)
47
End
48
Arkansas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and
Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres,
1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
49
California Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and
Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres,
1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
50
Louisiana Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and
Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres,
1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
51
Mississippi Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and
Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres,
1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
52
Missouri Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and
Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres,
1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
53
Texas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and
Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres,
1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
54
U.S. All Rice Harvested By State 1996-2008,
Thousand Acres
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