Growing On-Road Transportation in India Analysis of Policy Co-Benefits of Climate Change and Pollution

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Growing On-Road Transportation in India
Analysis of Policy Co-Benefits of Climate Change
and Pollution

• Ranjan Kumar Bose, Ph.D.
• Senior Fellow, The Energy and Resources Institute
  (TERI), New Delhi, India
• Presented at
• Better Air Quality (BAQ) Workshop 2006
• Sub-Workshop 31 Quantifying Transport related
  cobenefits of Emission Reduction
• Held at
• Hyatt Regency Hotel, Yogyakarta, Indonesia (11-15
  December 2006)

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Coverage

• An overview
• Trends and challenges
• Benefits of public transport
• Policy and vision
• Impact of policies on co-benefits
• Barriers to change

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Transportation energy and GHG emissions an
overview

• Total transport energy use was 34.81 mtoe in
  2003/04
• Consumed about 16 of total energy
• Largest consumer of petroleum products (32)
• Petroleum fuels 98 and electricity 2
• HSD (71), Gasoline (27), other fuels (lt1)
• Huge dependence on oil import
• 75 import dependency of crude oil
• Large crude import bill (26 billion USD in
  2004/05)
• Road is the most dominant transport mode
• 80 of passengers are moved by road
• 60 of freight are moved by road
• Carbon emissions from road transport are
  increasing most rapidly
• In 1994, total CO2 emissions was 679.47 mt
• 12 contribution was from transport sector
• Road transport accounted for 90

TEDDY 2004/05, TERI publication Indias
Initial National Communication, MoEF, GoI, 2004
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Transport scenario will be governed by

• Increasing urbanization
• Rapid economic development
• Urban sector contribution to GDP 50-60
• Rising income levels
• Rapid increase in motorization
• High vehicle density in urban areas
• Policies
• National Urban Transport Policy, MoUD
• Auto-Fuel Policy, MoPNG
• Auto Policy, MoHI

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Rise in income and growth in vehicles ownership

• From 60 million vehicles in 2000
• 537 million in 2030 (9 annual growth)
• 671 million in 2030 (10 annual growth)

Source Bose, R.K. 2006. Energy Efficiency and
Climate Change Considerations for On-Road
Transportation in India. Prepared under ADB
contract TA-6261 (REG), May 11.
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Projections of transport demand 2005-30

• Travel demand would grow
• 8.5 per year with low economic growth of 6
• 10.1 per year with high economic growth of 8

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Energy demand 9 to 13 times increase (2000-30)
CO2 emissions 9 to 13 times increase (2000-30)
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General findings and solutions

• Large increases in road transport-related GHG
  emissions are unavoidable in future
• Key Strategies
• Introduce cleaner fuels and improved technologies
  (based on progressively stringent standards)
• Make public transport and non-motorized transport
  attractive
• Manage growth in vehicle use (with carrots and
  sticks)
• Enhance/improve travel alternatives to serve
  diversity of needs and desires
• Coordinate government strategies and activities
  (transport and land use, infrastructure
  investments, industrial policy and transport,
  etc)

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Policy and vision

• Improving access and reducing transport demand
• Integrate land use and transport planning
• Using less fuel per passenger or freight
  kilometre
• Fiscal and control measures
• Priority to good public transport
• Promoting use of NMT modes
• Implement fuel economy standards for new vehicles
• Fuel efficiency standards
• Emission standards
• Fuel quality standards
• Reducing emissions from in-use vehicles
• Inspection and Certification
• Retrofit programme
• Co-benefits
• Examine synergies and trade-offs
• Transport and fuel subsidies
• Lower the cost of road transportation
• Decrease the incentive to economize on fuel
• Problem of adulteration

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Impact of various policies on co-benefits
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Impact of various policies on co-benefits
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Impact of various policies on co-benefits
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Impact of various policies on co-benefits
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Investment and financing

• Establish a clear and transparent legal fiscal
  framework
• Attract investment on Clean Fuels and
  Technologies
• Encourage Public-Private partnership
• Creation of dedicated public transport and NMT
  infrastructure
• Setting up of a number of modern IC centres
• Seek financial support under GEF
• CDM offers the possibility to increase funding
  but there are challenges
• Issue of baseline and additionality need to
  be addressed

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Barriers to change

• Weak empowerment and linkages between urban
  planning, transport planning, traffic management
  and enforcement
• Lack of public transport alternatives and
  political unwillingness to enforce TDM measures
• Access to huge capital to implement
• public transport systems
• IC centres
• Absence of a comprehensive framework to evaluate
  true cost of externalities of road transport
• Inadequate knowledge of the cost-benefit or cost
  effectiveness of various measures

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Thank you