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THE NEW DIGITAL ECOLOGY The growth and impact of the internet (and related technologies) Lee Rainie

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Title: THE NEW DIGITAL ECOLOGY The growth and impact of the internet (and related technologies) Lee Rainie


1
THE NEW DIGITAL ECOLOGYThe growth and impact of
the internet (and related technologies)Lee
Rainie DirectorWashington Web Managers
RoundtableFebruary 1, 2007
2
1 - Experts and information gatekeepers are
challenged
3
2 - There is a libertarian backlash
4
3 - Cataloguing and searching information becomes
much easier
5
4 - Crackpot ideas gain circulation
6
5 - New institutions form
7
6 - Fights over intellectual property break out
8
7 - Cultures of identity multiply
9
8 - New languages arise
!-( Black eye
!-) Proud of black eye
-) Partied all night
-o Shocked
Inebriated
Got beat up
-) Dazed or silly
-6 Brain-dead
-\ Hung over
- Worked all night
\ Hangover
gtgt-ltlt Furious
BRB Be Right Back JK Just
Kidding LOL Laughing Out Loud LYLAS
Love You Like a Sister NP No Problem
OMG Oh My God OTP On the Phone
POS Parent Over Shoulder ROFL
Rolling on Floor Laughing TTYL Talk to
You Later YW You're Welcome
10
9 - Boundaries between public and private break
down
11
10 - New professions emerge
12
11 - Educational methods are changed
13
Elizabeth Eisenstein The Printing Press as an
Agent of Change in 15th Century Europe
All of these occurred in the last decade
. and 550 years ago
14
4 - Crackpot ideas gain circulation
15
  • 7 new truths about the digital environment that
    are changing social and civic life

16
Truth 1
  • Media and gadgets are ubiquitous parts of
    everyday life

17
Home media ecology - 1975
  • Product Route to home Display Local
    storage
  • TV stations phone TV Cassette/ 8-track
  • broadcast TV radio
  • broadcast radio stereo Vinyl album
  • News mail
  • Advertising newspaper delivery phone
  • paper
  • Radio Stations non-electronic

Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein Co
18
Home media ecology now
  • Product Route to home Display Local
    storage
  • cable TiVo (PVR) VCR
  • TV stations DSL TV
  • Info wireless/phone radio DVD
  • Daily me broadcast TV PC Web-based
    storage
  • content iPod /MP3 server/
    TiVo (PVR)
  • Cable Nets broadcast radio stereo PC
  • Web sites satellite monitor web storage
  • Local news mail headphones CD/CD-ROM
  • Content from express delivery pager
  • individuals iPod / storage portable
    gamer MP3 player / iPod
  • Peer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFI cell
    phone pagers - PDAs
  • Advertising newspaper
    delivery phone cable box
  • Radio stations camcorder/camera PDA/Palm game
    console
  • game console paper
  • Satellite radio non-electronic storage
    sticks/disks

Adapted from Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein
Co
19
Media experiences by other means
  • 43 of young adult radio consumers occasionally
    listen to radio programs on something other than
    a radio console computers (76), laptops (34),
    iPods (35), cell phones (13)

20
Media experiences by other means
  • 20 of young adult TV viewers occasionally watch
    shows on something other than TV sets computers
    (70), laptops (36), cell phones (16), iPods
    (7)

21
Media experiences by other means
  • 13 of young adult internet users have placed a
    phone call via the internet and 19 have used
    webcams to connect with others in remote locales

22
Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March
2005
23
Truth 2
  • New gadgets allow people to enjoy media, gather
    information, and carry on communication anywhere

24
Mobile devices
  • 73 of adults own cell phones
  • 77 of young adults and 63 of teens own them

25
The communications Swiss Army knife The communications Swiss Army knife The communications Swiss Army knife The communications Swiss Army knife
Percentage of cell phone owners whose phones have this feature Percentage who use this feature now on their cell phones Dont use it now, but would like to have it
Send and receive text messages 75 35 13
Take still pictures 39 28 19
Play games 63 22 12
Access the internet 44 14 16
Send / receive email 43 8 24
Trade instant messages NA 7 11
Play music 21 6 19
Record their own video clips 22 6 17
Get mobile maps NA 4 47
Watch video or TV programs 13 2 14
26
Mobile devices
  • 55 of adults own digital cameras
  • 62 of young adults own them
  • 51 of young adults and 67 of older teens share
    photos on the internet

27
Mobile devices
  • 43 of adults own video cameras
  • 37 of teens own them
  • 22 of young adults and 17 of older teens share
    videos online

28
Mobile devices
  • 40 of adults play video games
  • 83 of teens do so
  • Kaiser Family Foundation March 2005
  • 67 of teens play games online

29
Mobile devices
  • 30 of adults own laptops
  • 43 of young adults own them

30
Mobile devices
  • 20 of adults own MP3 players
  • 51 of teens own them

31
Mobile devices
  • 11 of adults own a PDA or Blackberry
  • 8 of teens own them

32
Fragmented media environment( of all Americans
who regularly go to news source PRC
People/Press)
-22
-53
3
-31
-23
1,450
33
Truth 3
  • The internet (especially broadband) is at the
    center of the revolution

34
Internet and broadband adoption 1995-2006
All internet - 140 mill.
Broadband - 98 mill.
35
Fragmented audiences Nine digital gaps persist
  • Factors where there are strong correlations
  • Age internet use is highest among young, lowest
    among older Americans
  • Educational attainment internet use is high
    among those with college and graduate degrees and
    relatively low among those with high school
    diplomas
  • Disability status internet use is lower among
    the disabled
  • Language preference internet use highest among
    English speakers, and lower among those who
    prefer to speak a language other than English

36
Nine digital gaps persist
  • Factors where the correlations are weaker, but
    are still significant
  • Race and ethnicity internet use is high among
    whites and Asian-Americans and lower among
    African-Americans.
  • Income internet use is highest among those
    living in households with 75,000 or more of
    income and low among those living in households
    with under 30,000 of income.
  • Parental status internet use is higher among
    those with minor children living at home than in
    households with no children under 18 living at
    home.

37
Nine digital gaps persist
  • Factors where there are differences in the
    internet using populations, but where statistical
    correlations are not notable
  • Employment status internet use is highest among
    students, lowest among the retired and widows
  • Community type internet use is higher among
    suburban and urban residents, lower among rural
    residents

38
Truth 4
  • Different people use the internet in different
    ways

39
Use of government websites -- gender
40
Use of government websites race/ethnicity
41
Use of government websites generations
42
Different people use the internet in different
ways -- Gender
  • Men gt Women
  • Be online on a typical day
  • Use wireless devices/connections
  • Get news/politics
  • Search on hobbies
  • Browse for fun
  • Online banking, auctions, stock trades
  • Job-related research
  • Swap music files
  • Sports
  • Create content
  • Use dating sites
  • Access adult content
  • Women Men
  • Use search engines
  • Check weather
  • Games
  • Research/buy products
  • Store/display photos
  • Use online invitations
  • Woman gt Men
  • Appreciate email and instant messaging
  • Health information
  • Religious information
  • Seek online support
  • Research travel
  • Probe genealogy
  • Maps/directions

43
Different people use the internet in different
ways Race/ethnicity
  • Whites
  • Be online
  • Broadband
  • Wireless / PDAs
  • Email
  • Perform most kinds of transactions
  • Get news/politics
  • Do job-related research
  • Create content
  • Seek hobby information
  • Listen to audio / watch video
  • African-Americans
  • Information for new jobs
  • Information for new housing
  • Browse for fun
  • Religious information
  • Play games
  • Cell phones
  • Latinos
  • Access cultural content
  • Download/share files
  • Instant message
  • Get sports information
  • Research travel
  • Cell phones

44
Different people use the internet in different
ways Generations
  • Young
  • Instant message
  • Games
  • Wireless
  • Dating
  • Housing
  • New jobs
  • Create content
  • P2P services
  • Play games
  • Cultural information
  • Rate things
  • Adult content
  • Gen X / Boomers
  • Transactions
  • Get news / politics
  • Health
  • Job-related information
  • Information for new jobs
  • new housing
  • Religious information
  • Seek online support
  • Seniors
  • Email
  • Weather
  • Get maps directions
  • Research travel

45
Truth 5
  • Multi-tasking is a way of life and people live
    in a state of continuous partial attention
  • --- Linda Stone

46
Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March
2005
47
Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March
2005
48
Multitasking and attention deficits What else
were you doing when you last
Watched TV Listened to radio Read a newspaper Used the internet Talked on the phone
Watched TV 9 38 17 54
Listened to radio 13 21 16 30
Read a newspaper 43 21 2 14
Used the internet 20 17 2 19
Talked on the phone 57 25 14 18
Source Forrester Research, 2004
49
Truth 6
  • Ordinary citizens have a chance to be publishers,
    movie makers, artists, song creators, and story
    tellers

50
Content creation
  • 39 of online teens share their own creations
    online, such as artwork, photos, stories, or
    videos
  • ----
  • 22 of online adults have done this

51
Content creation
  • 33 have created or worked on webpages or blogs
    for others, including those for groups they
    belong to, friends or school assignments
  • ----
  • 13 of online adults do this

52
Content creation
  • 27 of online teens report keeping their own
    personal webpage
  • ----
  • 14 of online adults have their own page

53
Content creation
26 say they remix content they find online into
their own artistic creations ---- 9 of online
adults have done this
54
Content creation
  • 19 have created their own online journal or
    blog
  • ----
  • 8 of online adults have a blog

55
Content creation
  • 55 of online teens have created their own
    profile on a social network site like MySpace or
    Facebook
  • ----
  • 20 of online adults have such profiles

56
SNS The Abridged Version
  • Girls use it more, more likely to use it to
    reinforce pre-existing relationships, boys meet
    more new people, flirt
  • Communication moving into SNS
  • Teens are taking protective measures 66 of
    SNS-using teens have in some way restricted
    access to their profile
  • Tension in social networking sites over
    findability
  • Want to stay safe want privacy from parents,
    teachers
  • Want to connect with friends, those with similar
    interests

57
Communication with social networks is changing
and weak ties are growing inside networks
  • We maintain larger networks
  • Communications patterns shift -- email, IM,
    texting, blogging
  • Activities on SNS sites
  • 84 post message on friends wall or page
  • 82 send private messages to a friend
  • 76 post comments to a friends blog
  • 72 make plans with friends on SNS
  • 61 send a bulletin or mass message to all
    friends in the system
  • 33 wink, poke, give e-props to friends

58
Content creation by age
59
(No Transcript)
60
Social networks matter more especially in
important decisions
The Internets Role in Making an Important Decision The Internets Role in Making an Important Decision
What specific role did the internet play in the event for which the internet played an important or crucial role? What specific role did the internet play in the event for which the internet played an important or crucial role?
For respondents who said the internet played a crucial or important role in buying a car, making a major investment, getting additional career training, choosing a school for self or child, or helping someone with a major illness or health condition. For respondents who said the internet played a crucial or important role in buying a car, making a major investment, getting additional career training, choosing a school for self or child, or helping someone with a major illness or health condition.
Help you find advice and support from other people 34
Help you find information or compare options 30
Help you find professional or expert services 28
Source Pew Internet American Life Project March 2005 Survey. The margin of error 5 for the 560 respondents to this question. Source Pew Internet American Life Project March 2005 Survey. The margin of error 5 for the 560 respondents to this question.
61
Internet use at major life moments
Total who used internet relevant internet users who say int. played crucial / important role Overall growth gt 2002
Bought a car (62.5 mill.) 29 million 27 17 million 21
Got more education / training for career (53 mill.) 35 million 39 21 million 50
Chose a school for me / my child (39.5 mill.) 27 million 45 17 million 55
Helped another with a serious illness (66.5 mill.) 33 million 24 17 million 55
Made major investment (56 mill.) 29 million 29 16 million 77
62
Internet use at major life moments
Total who used internet relevant internet users who say int. played crucial / important role Overall growth gt 2002
Found a new place to live (32.5 mill.) 16 million 33 11 million 25
Changed jobs (34 mill.) 14 million 25 8 million 17
Dealt myself with a major illness (26 mill.) 12 million 26 7 million 16
Got married (7 mill.) 3 million 24 1.6 million 63
63
Social network sites are special personal and
community spaces
  • Self-expression and feedback
  • 19 have a blog
  • 38 read the blogs of others
  • 76 of social network-using teens leave comments
    on the blogs of friends

64
Consequence society moves more toward
networked individualism (Barry Wellman)
  • Human relations moving from groups to networks
  • Looser, rather than denser networks
  • Multiple Specialized Relationships
  • Partial Membership in Multiple Networks
  • More Long-Distance Relationships
  • More Transitory Relationships
  • More Weak Ties
  • More Uncertainty, More Maneuverability
  • More reporting relationships less hierarchy

65
Truth 7
  • Everything will change even more in coming years

66
The J-curve laws
  • Computing power doubles every 18 months Moores
    law
  • Storage power doubles every 12 months disk law
  • Communications power doubles every 2-3 years with
    improvements in fiber optics and compression
    Gilders law
  • Spectrum power is enhanced with efficiency
    improvements in spectrum allocation and use

67
Home media ecology future
  • Product Route to home Display Local
    storage
  • cable TiVo (PVR) VCR
  • TV stations phone/DSL TV
  • Info wireless radio DVD
  • Daily me broadcast TV PC Web-based
    storage
  • content iPod /MP3 server/ TiVo (PVR)
  • Cable Nets broadcast radio stereo PC
  • Web sites satellite monitor web storage
  • Local news mail headphones CD/CD-ROM
  • Content from express delivery pager
  • individuals iPod / storage portable
    gamer MP3 player / iPod
  • Peer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFI cell
    phone pagers - PDAs
  • Advertising newspaper
    delivery phone cable box
  • Radio stations PDA/Palm game console
  • game console paper
  • Satellite radio non-electronic storage
    sticks/disks

Adapted from Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein
Co
68
Thank you!
  • Lee Rainie
  • Director
  • Pew Internet American Life Project
  • 1615 L Street NW
  • Suite 700
  • Washington, DC 20036
  • Lrainie_at_pewinternet.org
  • 202-419-4500

69
Consequence Citizens expectations change
  • People expect institutions and individuals to be
    findable online and available
  • People expect information will be available and
    transactions will be smoother than in the past
  • People expect institutions and individuals to be
    much more forthcoming about what they do and how
    they do it (transparency imperative)
  • People hope that relevant information
    (independent/edited AND commercial) will be
    packaged and linked keywords uber alles

70
Consequence Citizen interactions change
  • The boundary between consumer and producer
    breaks down
  • Conversations replace traditional marketing
    People expect to be able to interact with other
    people and institutional information and media
  • Rankings, ratings, commentary are part of the
    conversation as are links.
  • Brands live in a paradoxical state Customer
    loyalty can be honored and nourished more than in
    the past, but consumers then own the
    definition of brands more
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