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Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies

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Title: Capstone SIEDS Presentation Outline Author: ITC Labs and Classrooms Last modified by VDOT Created Date: 4/21/2008 10:49:06 PM Document presentation format – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies


1
Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts
of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies
  • Progress Report to the VTrans2035 Advisory
    Committee
  • By James H. Lambert
  • with Megan N. Kersh, Asad A. Saqib, Matthew J.
    Schroeder, Edward E. Williams IV, James H.
    Lambert
  • May 15, 2008

2
Acknowledgments
  • Commonwealths Multimodal Transportation Office
  • VTrans2035
  • Virginia Department of Transportation
  • Virginia Transportation Research Council

3
Summary
  • Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning
  • Assessed the needs of regional transportation
    planners
  • Developed a scenario-based analysis of regional
    multimodal transportation impacts
  • Designed an Excel workbook to apply
    scenario-based planning approach to regions of
    the Commonwealth

4
Presentation Outline
  • Introduction and motivation
  • Problem definition
  • Project background
  • Technical approach overview
  • Demonstrate workbook
  • Conclusions and future work

5
Motivation
  • Virginias diverse transportation system
  • More than 60,000 miles of roadway
  • 67 public-use airports
  • 4 state-operated port terminals
  • Over 40 fixed route transit systems
  • Extensive freight and passenger rail
  • Scenario-based planning is essential for planning
    on a thirty-year horizon

6
VTrans2035
  • policy framework for an integrated multimodal
    transportation system that improves mobility and
    adds to the prosperity and the quality of life
    for Virginia
  • Modal agencies
  • DOAV
  • VDRPT
  • VDOT
  • DMV
  • VPA

Pierce R. Homer Secretary of Transportation
Heads of Modal Agencies
VTrans2035 Advisory Committee
Analysis support for scenario-based planning
7
Problem Definition
  • Characterize the regional impacts of statewide
    multimodal transportation policies
  • Develop a survey for seeking consensus and
    differences of transportation planners
  • Begin to explore region by region across the
    Commonwealth

8
Regional Planning Organizations
9
Timeline
  • September 2007 Contact with Virginias
    Multimodal Office
  • November 2007 Virginia Transportation
    Conference, Roanoke, Virginia
  • December 2007 Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO
    student paper competition
  • February 2008 Meeting with Dr. Tischer and
    Deputy Secretary Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett,
    Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine Graham, VDOT, on
    economic input output analysis
  • February 2008 Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO
  • March 2008 Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO
  • May 2008 Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine
    Graham
  • May 2008 Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory
    Committee

10
Project Website
www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2
11
Scenario-Based Planning
  • Use of scenarios to guide forecasts, projects,
    and policies
  • Advocated by the Federal Highway Administration
  • Several different approaches for methodology

Source FHWA, various sources
12
Types of Scenarios
  • Spatial
  • Economic
  • Demographic
  • Number of households, in/out-migration
  • Other
  • Environmental
  • Availability of energy resources
  • National emergencies
  • Natural disasters

13
Spatial Scenarios
  • Urban core repopulates
  • People go to urbanized areas to live and work,
    net population unchanged
  • Public transportation increases, clean
    transportation
  • Sprawl accelerates
  • Private automobile become main mode, vehicle
    miles traveled increases
  • Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource
    depletion
  • Information technology amenities grow
  • More workers telecommute so sprawl continues
  • Flexible work hours result in justifying transit
    service to certain areas
  • Region undivided
  • Shift job and household growth from west to east
  • Transit oriented development
  • More people live and work closer to transit

Sources www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfF
inal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-document
s/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
14
Economic Scenarios
  • Regional economy strengthens
  • Many workers move to region, sprawl continues
  • Global trade intensifies
  • Population decreases, increased use of
    automobiles
  • Energy cost rises
  • People relocate to more transit-oriented
    locations
  • Decreased use of automobile, air quality
    increases
  • Infrastructure investment expands
  • May draw people to area in the long run

Sources www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfF
inal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-document
s/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
15
Demographic Scenarios
  • In-migration increases
  • Total population increases, decreased use of auto
  • Out-migration increases
  • Population decreases, increased use of auto
  • More households
  • Increased household growth to balance forecast
    job growth

Sources www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfF
inal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-document
s/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
16
Other Scenarios
  • Green region emphasized
  • Use of public transit, bike, etc.
  • Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland
    security tightened
  • Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation
  • Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not
    emphasized
  • Carbon constrained future
  • Energy constrained future
  • Global price shocks and shortages

Sources www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfF
inal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-document
s/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
17
Scenario-Based Planning (cont.)
  • Identify key regional issues
  • Identify key factors for issues
  • Combine key factors and issues to make future
    scenarios
  • Explore scenarios with a variety of stakeholders

18
Stages of the Analysis
19
Transportation Policies
  • Twenty-one policies of VTrans2035 and Office of
    Multimodal Transportation Planning
  • Sample of policies
  • P.4 Fund rail
  • P.6 Strengthen planning and modeling
  • P.24 Going green (specific to region)
  • P.23 Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths
    (specific to region)

20
Scenarios
  • Used nineteen scenarios based on studies
    throughout the U.S.
  • Focused on five scenarios for the region in our
    case study
  • S.2 Sprawl accelerates
  • S.17 Retirement
  • S.18 Natural disaster
  • S.3 IT amenities grow
  • S.19 Decrease in air quality

21
Transportation Criteria (Goals)
  • Six high level criteria with 34 sub-criteria
  • High level goals
  • C.1 Safety and Security
  • C.2 Preservation and Management
  • C.3 Efficient Movement of Goods and People
  • C.4 Economic Vitality
  • C.5 Quality of Life
  • C.6 Program Delivery

22
Workbook - Introduction
23
Workbook Policy Definitions
24
Workbook Policy Ratings
25
Workbook Scenario Definitions
26
Workbook Criteria Weighting
27
Workbook Policy Comparison
28
Workbook Policy Comparison (cont.)
29
Workbook Policy Comparison (cont.)
30
Summary of Progress
  • Explored scenario-based planning approach to
    analyze impacts of regional multimodal
    transportation policies
  • Integrated policies, scenarios, and evaluation
    criteria in an Excel workbook
  • Characterized regional impacts for multimodal
    transportation policies

31
Future Work
  • Survey MPOs to to find what scenarios are used in
    long-range planning
  • Customize workbook for survey of regional
    organizations
  • Implement a telephone survey to gather input to
    the workbook
  • Collate the results in support of VTrans2035

32
RVAMPO Student Paper Award
33
RVAMPO Award (cont.)
In Roanoke with Competition Sponsor Receiving
Best Student Paper Award
Team with UVa Engineering Dean James Aylor and
Department of Systems and Information Engineering
Chair, Prof. Don Brown
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