Data needs and priorities of research community for climate

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Data needs and prioritiesof research
communityfor climate
The physical climate system

• Kevin Trenberth
• NCAR

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Some key events

• 2007 (Oct) Joint WCRP/IGBP /GCOS Workshop
  Future Climate Change Research and Observations
  GCOS, WCRP and IGBP Learning from the Fourth
  Assessment Report Sydney, Australia
• http//wcrp.wmo.int/documents/SydneyWorkshopRep_FI
  NAL.pdf
• Trenberth 2008 WMO Bull.
• Doherty et al. 2009 BAMS
• 2008 (May) World Modeling Summit for Climate
  Prediction ECMWF, Reading, UK
• 2009 (March) Joint IPCC/WCRP/IGBP Workshop New
  Science Directions and Activities Relevant to the
  Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
  Panel on Climate Change U. Hawaii, Honolulu,
  Hawaii
• 2010 (Sept) WCRP-UNESCO Workshop Metrics and
  methodologies of estimation of extreme climate
  events Paris, France
• Zolina et al. 2010 Eos

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Global warming is unequivocalAdaptation to
climate change

• Assess vulnerability
• Devise coping strategies
• Determine impacts of possible changes
• Plan for future changes
• Requires information

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Climate Information System

• Trenberth, 2008 WMO Bull

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Doherty et al. 2009 BAMS (April issue)

• Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4
• Scientific Developments Needed To Understand,
  Predict, And Respond To Climate Change

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Doherty et al. 2009 BAMS (April issue)

• Recommendations
• 1) Improved process-level understanding, climate
  models, observations of climate-relevant
  parameters and climate monitoring systems are
  needed in specific areas.
• 2) Because some degree of climate change is
  virtually certain (IPCC 2007), additional efforts
  are needed to make climate information more
  relevant to decisions concerning impacts,
  adaptation and mitigation.

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Doherty et al. 2009 Key research needs

1. Improve models
2. Provide reliable climate forecasts 10-30 year
   time frame, with uncertainties
3. Predictions with regional-scale climate
   information, accounting for land surface
   processes and biosphereatmosphere interactions
4. Ensure the observational record incl
   reprocessing and reanalysis

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Doherty et al. 2009 Key research needs

1. Expand datasets to include observations of the
   impacts of climate change and to account for
   autonomous or planned adaptation.
2. Systematically monitor and assess vulnerability
3. Harmonize across climate, impacts, adaptation and
   vulnerability consistent land use, land cover,
   emissions climate assessments historic and
   future
4. Better understand variations in the hydrological
   cycle, esp extremes

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Doherty et al. 2009 Key research needs
9) Use physical process studies, observations,
and syntheses to obtain a consensus on the
possible nonlinear responses of ice sheets to
climate change, including their influences on
rates of sea level rise.

• 10) Improve process modeling and understanding of
  feedbacks in the carbon cycle across the earth
  system.
• 11) Improve understanding of the processes
  involved in aerosol indirect forcing

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Modeling summit May 08

• Develop strategy to revolutionize prediction of
  the climate through the twenty-first century and,
  in particular, to help address the threat of
  global climate change at the regional level. The
  outcome was the recommendation of a
• Climate Prediction Project
• http//wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Workshops/ModelingSumm
  it/Documents/FinalSummitStat_6_6.pdf
• Subsequently, series of articles in BAMS

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An Earth System Prediction Initiative
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Modeling summit repercussions

• Subsequently, series of articles in BAMS
• Shapiro, M., et al., 2007 The socio-economic and
  environmental benefits of a revolution in
  weather, climate and Earth system analysis and
  prediction. The Full Picture, Group on Earth
  Observation, 136138.
• Hurrell, J. W., et al., 2009 A unified modeling
  approach to climate system prediction. BAMS, 90,
  18191832.
• Meehl, G., et al., 2009 Decadal prediction Can
  it be skillful? BAMS, 90, 14671485.
• Shukla, J., et al. 2009 Revolution in climate
  prediction is both necessary and possible A
  declaration at the World Modelling Summit for
  Climate Prediction. BAMS, 90, 175178.
• Shapiro et al., 2010 An earth-system prediction
  initiative for the Twenty-first Century. BAMS,
  91, 1377-1388.
• Nobre, C., et al., 2010 Addressing the
  complexity of the earth system. BAMS, 91,
  13891396.
• Brunet, G., et al., 2010 Collaboration of the
  weather and climate communities to advance
  subseasonal to seasonal prediction. BAMS, 91,
  13971406.
• Shukla, et al., 2010 Toward a new generation of
  world climate research and computing facilities.
  BAMS, 91, 14071412.

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From Hollingsworth et al. 2005
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Weather Prediction (T1279, 15 km)compared with
Satellite ObservationsECMWF predictions and
Meteosat observationsMartin Miller and Peter
Bechtold (ECMWF)
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New Science Directions and Activities Relevant to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC
2009 Hawaii Meeting

•  Important emerging science topics, (WG I)
• sea level and ice sheet instabilities
• detection attribution on the regional level,
  and of extremes
• methodology of multi-model ensembles
• cloud and aerosol processes and associated
  uncertainties
• atmospheric chemistry and climate
• Earth System modeling of climate, including
  biogeochemistry and land-surface interactions
• coverage of the full range of possible futures.
• Expert meetings proposed
• Joint WGI-WGII IPCC Expert Meeting on "The
  Methodology of Detection and Attribution
• on Decreasing Space Scales and Extremes".
• WGI Expert Meeting on "The Methodology
  Multi-Model Ensembles and Model Metrics"

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Other key events in 2009
WCC-3 emphasised the essential roles of
observation and research in providing the basis
for climate services OceanObs 09 developed a
common vision for provision of routine and
sustained global information on the marine
environment
Towards a Global Framework for Climate Services
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WCRP extremes workshop

• Workshop on metrics and methodologies of
  estimation of extreme climate events WCRP-UNESCO
  (GEWEX/CLIVAR/IHP)
• UNESCO, Paris 27-30 Sept 2010
• Chair Olga Zolina
• 132 from 32 countries
• Oral, poster, discussion sessions 3 Breakout
  Groups
• Community white paper, Eos and BAMS(?) article
• http//www.extremeworkshop.org/
• Goal To provide much improved observational
  datasets and model capabilities on variability
  and extremes, especially those that have high
  impacts on society and the environment and
  develop a climate information system that include
  predictions and assessments of future changes in
  risk from extremes.
• 21 Dec 2010 issue

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Reason for focus on extremes
Mean A 50F, s.d. 10F
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Reason for focus on extremes
Shift in climate from A to B Most of time the
values are the same (green).
Mean A 50F, s.d. 10F Mean B 55F, s.d. 10F
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Issues for extremes

• High resolution observations are not available
  (hourly)
• High resolution model data often not saved
• Model results typically not available or archived
• Model definitions are often different from obs
• Model grid box value may not be comparable to
  mean of grid box from observations
• Ability and utility of models
• Model extremes are not well simulated.
• Improvements of models (intensity, frequency of
  precip etc)
• Improvements in resolution

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An Opportunity
A milestone in developing the WCRP Strategy and
an opportunity to sense the views of the
community
Major research opportunity
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Earth system complexity
National Academy of Sciences Keck Mural