Can new regional water policy transfer IWRM from myth to reality? (Case study:Jordan valley)

1
Can new regional water policy transfer IWRM from
myth to reality?(Case studyJordan valley)

• Abdel rahman tamimi
• Palestinian Hydrology Group
• A.tamimi_at_phg.org
• Birzeit university
• November 1st ,2011

2
IWRM Approach
Social justice Optimal management point

• SOCIAL DIMENSION
• SOCIAL CONFLICT
• SOCIAL AGENDA
• SOCIAL ACCEPTANCY OF IWRM OPTIONS
• 4.SOCIAL PARTICIPATION
• Gender consideration

Social
IWRM point
Enabling Environment 1.Legal arrangement 2.
institutional arrangement
ECONOMIC DIMENSION 1. cost benefit 2.
Affordability 3. Economic sustainability
Enabling environment
Economic
3
(No Transcript)
4
5 Ts Approach to understand to act

• Trends
• Tensions
• Transitions
• Today
• Tomorrow to late

5
Socioeconomic trends

• The most important pillar of IWRM is the
  understanding and counting the major trends of
  socioeconomic trends such as
• Income The trends of income and economic growth
  are the main drivers for people willingness to
  pay and affordability .

Un employment
GDP growth rate.
Poverty
6
Socioeconomic trends

• Unemployment due to the lack of proper water
  policy to deal with drought water scarcity ,many
  countries ( in particular agriculture
  communities )suffer from rising unemployment
  rates , the consequences of that high rates are
  effecting badly the other major socioeconomic
  indicators related water ( affordability,
  willingness to pay .etc )
• (

Trends in working farm populations, 1970-2008
(cheam)
7
Socioeconomic uncertainties

• (it is so difficult to implement the principals
  of IWRM without flexible, multi-option based
  water policy as a cope mechanisms to deal with
  uncertainties. ( uncertainties can be natural
  (e.g. long term drought) or manmade such as (
  e.g. pollution or lack of social stability)

natural (e.g. long term drought) or manmade
such as ( e.g. pollution or lack of social
stability
8
(No Transcript)
9
TENSIONS

• Climate change Climate change is increasingly
  being securitized, as fears of the
  destabilization effects of climate change mount.
  In 2009 the UN General Assembly adopted a
  non-binding resolution on climate change as an
  international security problem (A/Res/63/281 11
  June 2009). However, how climate change affects
  regional comprehensive security (livelihoods,
  poverty, food security has not been made clear
  yetrch.
•  

10
TENSIONS

• Good governance and institutional reforms
  without monitoring the main indicators of good
  governance and reform process the efficient
  water policy approach will not be able to enable
  the environment to apply the policy components

mismanagement
Corruption
11
(No Transcript)
12
Under standing the problem
Multi stakeholders
Technical problems
Poor Management
Social conflict Multi sector conflict
13
Do Nothing Results Domestic
14
TENSIONS
15
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
Mean, Dry and Wet Year conditions / Auja Spring
Auja spring Mean about 9.7 MCM/a Range 0.7
18.0 MCM/a
16
TRANSITIONS
17
.
Step Approach towards IWRM in the LJV

• Step 1 Water Resources System Analysis
• Step 2 Socio-Economic Development and Climate
  Change
• Step 3 Water Budgets
• Step 4 Identification of IWRM Measures
• Step 5 Local IWRM Strategies as combined
  Measures
• Step 6 Selection of Priority Strategies
• Step 7 Integration and consolidation of local
  strategies
• Step 8 Performance and impact assessment of
  selected strategies
• Step 9 Final strategy evaluation and ranking
• Step 10 Guidelines for regional IWRM
  implementation

.
18
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
Step1. understand the system

• Mean monthly surface water availability (spring
  discharge runoff) is plotted versus future
  agricultural water demand
• Mean hydrological condition is taken in
  consideration
• 25 loss of surface water is considered (pipeline
  construction)
• Extension of agricultural area to 1200 ha within
  next 10 years
• Estimated present water surplus is approx. 0.6
  MCM/a and concentrated on the months of January
  to March.
• This volume of water can be stored via MAR
  techniques to use in dry months

19
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
Highly variable surface runoff / Flash-floods

• Related problems
• Short duration -
• high itensity
• High sediment
• load
• Water quality
• issues

20
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
Measure Import of treated effluents from Al Bireh
Al Bireh wastewater treatment plant Yearly
discharge about 2 Mio. m³ Option would require
25 km pipeline
21
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
MAR Planning at Auja long-term water budget

• 4 MCM storage capacity, via MAR, allows 32 MCM
  storage
• ? loss reduced to 47 MCM
• Reliability 91
• A storage capacity of 18 MCM would be required to
  store all surplus water.
• Feasibility ?
• Preliminary simulation studies
• Further time series analysis and budget studies
  are required to consolidate the results

4 MCM
22
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
MAR Planning at Auja long-term water budget
Surface water supply reliability and losses
according to storage capacity

• 30 years historical data ( 1967-1997) of monthly
  surface water (spring discharge and runoff)
  transferred to the time horizon, 2010-2040
• Agricultural expansion 5200 dunum to 7200 (8415
  dunum) within 10 years (2010-2020). 2020-2040
  no further agricultural expansion
• Agricultural water requirement to 1000 mm/dunum
• Surface water loss from new pipeline 25
• Reliability on demand (S covered agric. demand
  / S Agric. demand)
• Surface water loss S( monthly surplus water-
  monthly stored water)
• No climate change scenario

23
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
Step 2 Socio-Economic Development Climate
Change
Wadi Auja

• Local socio-economic development depends on
  irrigated agriculture
• Irrigated area is constant since 20 years (5200
  dunum 520 ha)

Agricultural Development and Water Trade Options
(AD)

• To cope with the need for socio-economic
  development 7 options for agricultural
  development and water trade have been defined
  which are based on the followng assumptions
• Maximum irrigable area around Auja village is
  12000 dunum (1200 ha)
• Water demand regular agriculture 1000mm/dunum
• Palm tree and greenhouse irrigation 1500mm/dunum
• Extension of irrigated area within 10 years
• ? The defined AD options are quite different
  trying to define edges of the feasible region in
  the decision space

24
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
Step 4 Identification of IWRM Measures
25
IWRM MEASURE /WEIGTING INDICATOR Social acceptance Cost benefits applicability /implement ability National agenda contribution to the region stability Feasibility
Demand Management measures
Rehabilitation domestic wells
Rehabilitation of domestic water supply systems
Replacement of water meter
Rehabilitation of springs
Rehabilitation of springs conveyance systems
Rehabilitation of irrigation water wells
Rehabilitation of irrigation conveyance systems

Supply Management
Water harvesting
Artificial recharge

Waste water Treatment and reuse
brackish water
Desalination from sea water
Importing water

• Take into consideration
• Political willingness 2. uncertainties (man
  made or climate change)

26
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
Step 5 Local IWRM Strategies as combined Measures
27
GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN
Step 6 Selection of Priority IWRM Strategies

• Socio-economic and environmental impact
  assessment studies are time and money consuming ?
  
• It is suggested to do a preliminary screening of
  IWRM strategies in order to select the most
  promising ones
• For this purpose, the Analytical Hierarchy
  Process AHP (Saaty, 1980) is being applied which
  provides a ranking of alternative strategies
  based on
• Representative socio-economic and environmental
  decision criteria
• A participative decision making process
• Criteria grouping (hierarchy)
• Criteria weighting and pairwise comparison with
  regards to alternatives

? No criteria quantification is required at this
step !
28
Methodology of Ranking

• multi stages multi stakeholders weighting
  process
• Ranking by experts
• Ranking by stakeholders
• Ranking by stakeholders/experts
• Ranking by donors
• Ranking by politicians

Delphi technique
29
Example expert (2) and water harvesting (10)
WH 210 20
IWRM options
experts
Scale for weighting
Scale for weighting
stakeholder
Weighting average
Expert/stakeholder
Politicians
Donor
30
(No Transcript)
31
Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic
issues in the frame of water management

• At community level
• Policy reform to ensure more effective targeting
  of poverty reduction
• Define measures and act on policy changes in
  other sector that effect the potential of water
  contribute to poverty reduction e.g. financial
  mechanisms. Decentralization etc.

32
Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic
issues in the frame of water management

• At Institutional level
• Make sure that the policies formulated through
  participatory approach and based on
  socioeconomic indicators
• Make the policies flexible , easy to cope with
  uncertainties
• Make sure that policy is known and transparent
  in order to gain political well and acceptance
• Create policy ownership by involving all
  governmental bodies and civil society
  organizations in the process of policy
  formulation

33
Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic
issues in the frame of water management

• At research level
• Enable the researcher to have accurate and
  reliable water related data( some countries are
  hiding the socioeconomic indicators)
• Integrate research output with discion making
  process
• Enhance the dialogue between water experts and
  decision makers
• Promote the concept of research oriented policies
  will lead to improve socioeconomic situation