Effects of climate change on animal health and welfare in the UK Dr Helen Roberts (Global Animal Health, Defra

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Effects of climate change on animal health and
welfare in the UKDr Helen Roberts(Global
Animal Health, Defra UK)
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Defra response to Climate Change

• To ensure a focus is maintained on the
  relationship between health and welfare and
  environmental drivers, including the likely
  future impact of climate change on disease
  prevalence and epidemiology.
• To ensure a coherent science base, including
  horizon scanning, and facilitating knowledge
  exchange and action planning between and by
  stakeholders.
• To share knowledge, develop effective contingency
  plans and help stakeholders address these issues
  themselves.

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Adaption response for AHW

• OIE General Session
• EU White Paper
• UK response and contingency planning has been a
  front-runner
• Adaptation and Mitigation have both been targeted
  for response on behalf of the UK Chief Veterinary
  Officer

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OIE

• To be a focal point for exchange of information
• To assist Vet Authorities to develop foresight
  and decision making frameworks
• One World One Health
• To encourage OIE ref labs to investigate
  relationship between climate, environment and
  disease

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CVOs Statement on ACC

• Issue
• Important implications for agriculture, livestock
  management , animal and public health.
• Climate and resulting habitat and ecosystem
  changes will change the way we keep livestock,
  how we source feed and how we interact with
  wildlife.
• Our demand for food will increase, and there will
  be new opportunities for farmers, and not just
  threats.
• Physical changes to habitats and new farming
  methods may lead to a change in the type or
  number of animal diseases we encounter.
• Some diseases may be of very low prevalence,
  whereas others may become more significant.
• While each disease is different, we have used our
  procedures and practices for responding to
  disease threats in many real life situations
  before.
• We continuously review contingency plans to make
  sure they remain as effective as possible.
• We try to anticipate likely changes in disease
  threats so we can manage such risks proactively
  whilst encouraging livestock keepers to adapt and
  allow agriculture and food production to thrive.
• Defra continues to conduct continuous horizon
  scanning to assess disease threats.

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CVOs Statement on ACC

• What we are Doing
• Links with sustainable agriculture colleagues to
  prepare for a multi-disciplinary approach to
  using the UKCIP scenarios.
• To identify and prioritise evidence base needs,
  to build on research already done.
• To use the scenarios to augment our evidence in a
  targeted and intelligent way.
• To consider the case for redirecting some of our
  existing (and finite) research budget into this
  area.
• Disease profiles and a decision support tool to
  objectively rank disease risks have been
  developed to underpin risk assessments and
  decision making on prioritising resources against
  different threats.
• A horizon scanning team continually assesses
  disease threats to UK and publishes qualitative
  risk assessments on the Defra Website
• Disease profiles will be updated continually as
  science and on-the-ground realities change. 
  There will also be a section specifically
  relating to climate change (ie how easy to
  mitigate and how important a role in greenhouse
  gas emissions and climate change).

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ACC Measures and Impacts
Type Potential adaptation measure Risks addressed by the measure Overall Impact Overall Impact Overall Impact Overall Impact Implications of adaptation measures - Outcomes in your area
Type Potential adaptation measure Risks addressed by the measure negative (-) neutral (0) positive () Unknown (?) Implications of adaptation measures - Outcomes in your area
breed/species Stock different livestock breeds with reduced skin sensitivity to reduce sunburn Sunburn in pigs     ? Breeds may more susceptible to disease. Change in trade - i.e. Imports from different countries where the 'breeds' are available at a reasonable price but with a high risk disease status.
business and contingency planning Monitor numbers of wild species Direct effects on wildlife and biodiversity from ToC, rainfall, flooding, drought (e.g. changes to phenology, range, abundance, behaviour)     ()   better information on wildlife population size and distribution would help monitor risk and inform controls measures during an outbreak.
infrastructure/ technology Provide additional mechanical ventilation in transporters to reduce heat stress Heat stress in livestock when transported due to higher summer ToC   (o)      
infrastructure/ technology Improve insulation and ventilation in animal housing to avoid heat stress Heat stress in livestock due to higher summer ToC   (o)      
management Reduce number of animals transported at any one time to reduce heat stress Heat stress in livestock when transported due to higher summer ToC   (o)     More journeys may put time pressures on hauliers which could cause reluctance to CD vehicles between each load.
management Adopt control strategies from countries from where 'immigrating' pests originate Increased risk of Exotic pests and diseases introduction.     ()   opportunity to learn from other countries who already have the climate and disease threats and put the necessary measures in place
management Housing livestock during flooding risk. Use of temporary fencing to keep livestock away from risk areas. Use of text warning systems Flood risks to livestock as a result of heavy rainfall     ()   could be effective in reducing interation with wildlife
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Expert opinion
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Our adaptation response

• Exotic notifiable diseases of animals
• Endemic production diseases
• UK and also EU level
• UKCIP projections (medium emissions)
• Direct and indirect effects of CC on disease
  incidence
• Input into OIE and DfID

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Risk Framework

• Routes of introduction and spread
• Pathogen biology
• Disease reservoirs
• Vector biology
• Contact and movement of animals, including trade
• Environmental routes

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How is a disease transmitted?
BTV Bruc FMD VS
Imports of Livestock or Pets (excludes horses) Yes Yes Yes Yes
Imports of Meat X X Yes Yes
Imports of Germplasm Yes Yes Yes Yes
Imports of laboratory material X Yes Yes X
Livestock transport vehicles from abroad Yes Yes Yes Yes
Importation Movement of Horses X X X Yes
Waste from Retail / Food Processing X X Yes Yes
Migration of Wild Birds X X X X
Contact between livestock competent insect vectors in GB Yes X X X
Illegal imports Yes X Yes Yes
Risk of Pathway Risk of Pathway Risk of Pathway Risk of Pathway Risk of Pathway
Livestock 2 2 2 2
meat 0 0 1 1
germplasm 2 2 2 0
Lab material 0 1 1 0
transport 2 2 2 2
Horses 0 0 0 2
food waste 0 0 2 2
bird migration 0 0 0 0
Vectors 4 0 0 0
Illegal Imports 2 0 2 2
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How much trade is there?
Bluetongue Bluetongue Bluetongue Brucellosis Brucellosis Brucellosis Foot and Mouth Foot and Mouth Foot and Mouth Vesicular Stomatitis Vesicular Stomatitis Vesicular Stomatitis
Volumes of trade where 0none, 1low or sporadic, 2regular but small quantities and 3high volumes of trade Live Animals Germplasm POAO Live Animals Germplasm POAO Live Animals Germplasm POAO Live Animals Germplasm POAO
UK 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Northern EU 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3
Southern EU 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3
Eastern EU 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3 1 1 3
Southern Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eastern Europe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trading Partner - North America 0 3 3 0 3 3 0 3 3 0 3 3
Trading Partner - South America 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 1 3
Trading Partner - Africa 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 1 3 0 1 3
Trading Partner - Middle East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trading Partner - Australasia 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
Trading Partner - Asia 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1
Global - Africa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Global - Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Global - America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Global - Middle East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Where is disease?
Disease Distribution Bluetongue Disease Brucellosis Foot and Mouth Disease Vesicular Stomatitis
UK 0 1 0 0
Northern EU 0 1 0 0
Southern EU 1 1 0 0
Eastern EU 0 1 0 0
Southern Europe 1 1 0 0
Eastern Europe 0 1 0 0
Trading Partner - North America 1 1 0 1
Trading Partner - South America 0 1 1 1
Trading Partner - Africa 1 1 1 0
Trading Partner - Middle East 1 1 1 0
Trading Partner - Australasia 1 1 0 0
Trading Partner - Asia 1 1 1 0
Global - Africa 1 1 1 0
Global - Asia 1 1 1 0
Global - America 0 1 1 0
Global - Middle East 1 1 1 0

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Final Risk Score
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Expert Opinion workshop

• Identify Climate Change parameters to apportion
  boundaries to the assessment.
• Consider what effect could these climate
  scenarios have on diseases.
• Determine the risk by multiplying likelihood of
  impact by magnitude of consequence and plot on a
  graph.
• Identify what characteristics of a disease could
  make it important to the UK.
• Generate a ranking which can be used to help
  prioritise disease prevention efforts.
• Apportion high impact, high priority factors to
  different diseases based on rank.
• Identify unknowns.
• Plan of action.

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Predictions are EU-wide
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General results

• Increases in vector borne diseases (variable) as
  direct effect on vector distribution
• Possible increases in production diseases due to
  indirect changes in livestock husbandry etc
• Flood risk as well as heat stress may have
  immediate impact
• Some fish diseases may be affected, as water
  quality may change
• Possible change in migration of wild birds
• Population movement and changing trade patterns

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Final plan of action

• Bearing in mind the White Paper guidance for
  actions for Member States
• Develop guidelines and surveillance mechanisms on
  the health impacts of climate change by 2011.
• Step up research in animal disease surveillance
  and control.

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Cautionary note African Swine Fever
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Bluetongue Disease
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Foot and Mouth Disease
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Rift Valley Fever
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• Thank you