Introduction to Environmental Analysis Environ 239 Instructor: Prof. W. S. Currie GSIs: Nate Bosch, Michele Tobias Skills Unit 11: Modeling animal populations for wildlife conservation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Introduction to Environmental Analysis Environ 239 Instructor: Prof. W. S. Currie GSIs: Nate Bosch, Michele Tobias Skills Unit 11: Modeling animal populations for wildlife conservation

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Title: Introduction to Environmental Analysis Environ 239 Instructor: Prof. W. S. Currie GSIs: Nate Bosch, Michele Tobias Skills Unit 11: Modeling animal populations for wildlife conservation


1
Introduction to Environmental AnalysisEnviron
239Instructor Prof. W. S. CurrieGSIs Nate
Bosch, Michele TobiasSkills Unit 11 Modeling
animal populations for wildlife conservation
2
What we learned about the use of models to aid in
decision making
  • Simulating multiple contrasting scenarios can be
    useful, but it might it might take some
    exploration to find the best set of scenarios
  • Year-to-year randomness can alter the way a
    resource needs to be managed.
  • Key state variables (such as adult stock size, or
    number of migrating smolts) need to be monitored
    each year so the manager knows what the system is
    doing
  • Simulation of one effect alone (e.g. dam
    construction) does not tell you how that might
    interact with other effects (e.g. development in
    the watershed)

3
What we learned about the use of models to aid in
decision making (2)
  • Adjusting parameters to test scenarios seems
    arbitrary unless you have some data on what the
    values are and how they change under the
    different scenarios
  • It seemed that just about every change we
    simulated seemed to degrade the resource in some
    way

4
Pinyon-Juniper
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Pinyon-Juniper forest, Utah
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Class exercise Equilibrium diagram
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Class exercise Graded Question on Reading
  • How does Ford (in Chapter 16) develop a deer
    carrying capacity that is independent of
    predation? How does he incorporate this into the
    model as a control on the rate of deer population
    growth?

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Pinyon-Juniper forest, Utah
Pinyon pines Grand Canyon, south rim
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Introduction to Environmental AnalysisEnviron
239Instructor Prof. W. S. CurrieGSIs Nate
Bosch, Michele TobiasSkills Unit 11 Modeling
animal populations for wildlife conservation
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Top Ten Funniest ratings from www.ratemyprofessor.
com
  1. Teaches well, invites questions and then insults
    you for 20 minutes.
  2. I learned how to hate a language I already know.
  3. Bring a pillow.
  4. She hates you already.
  5. You can't cheat in her class because no one knows
    the answers.

29
Top Ten Funniest ratings from www.ratemyprofessor.
com
  1. His class was like milk, it was good for 2 weeks.
  2. Three of my friends got A's in his class and my
    friends are dumb.
  3. Evil computer science teaching robot who crushes
    humans for pleasure.
  4. Instant amnesia walking into this class. I swear
    he breathes sleeping gas.
  5. Not only is the book a better teacher, it also
    has a better personality.

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Considering and incorporating spatial processes
in dynamic models
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Probability of wolf presence (interpreted as
habitat suitability)
40
Turner, Gardner, ONeill 2001
Metapopulation Local populations are sources or
sinks
41
Rondonia, Brazil 1975 -- Landsat 2 MSS bands 4,2,1
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Rondonia, Brazil 1986 -- Landsat 5 MSS bands 4,2,1
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Rondonia, Brazil 1992 -- Landsat 4 TM bands 4,3,2
44
Stratford Robinson 2005, Frontiers in Ecology
Environment
Forest edge
Abandoned pasture
45
Turner, Gardner, ONeill 2001
Dale et al. model used in Rhondonia Over time,
loss of area suitable as habitat for species with
(a) high gap-crossing or (b) low gap-crossing
ability (as this interacts with agricultural
practices)
46
Small group discussion
  • Suppose you wanted to improve the Kaibab Deer
    Herd population model by incorporating spatial
    processes.
  • What would you try to focus on in establishing
    scenarios to simulate? (Example three
    scenarios that varied _____ )
  • What data would you need to gather in order to
    parameterize and/or test these simulated
    scenarios?

47
Scenario simulations What students came up with
  • Deer stocks in core vs edge habitat scenarios
    regarding variability in edge / core ratio
  • Varying patch size and patch separation, with
    forage different in different patch sizes

48
Data to gather What students came up with
  • Patch size and distance
  • Forage quality in patches
  • Deer density and/or predator density in core vs
    edge
  • Patch crossing ability of the deer

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Small group discussion
  • Can you list three similarities between dynamic
    process modeling and statistical-correlational
    approaches
  • Can you list 2 things that are better, and 1
    thing that is worse about dynamic modeling versus
    statistical?
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