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CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS CENTER

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CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS CENTER Norman L. Miller, Principal Investigator Regional Climate Center, Earth Sciences Division – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS CENTER


1
CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND
APPLICATIONS CENTER
  • Norman L. Miller, Principal Investigator
  • Regional Climate Center, Earth Sciences Division
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  • University of California
  • NASA/RESAC PI WORKSHOP
  • Washington D.C.
  • November 9, 1999

2
RESEARCH AND APPLICATION TEAM
  • Dr. Norman Miller - Hydrometeorologist, LBNL,
    Regional Climate Center Group Leader
  • Dr. Jinwon Kim - Meteorologist, LBNL Staff
    Scientist, Regional Climate Center (RCC)
  • Dr. Phaedon Kyriakidis - Geostatistician, LBNL
    Postdoctoral Scholar, RCC
  • Dr. Nigel Quinn - Water Resources Engineer, LBNL
    Staff Scientist, and USBR
  • Prof. William Dietrich - Geomorphologist,
    UC-Berkeley, Geology Dept. Chairman, and RCC
  • Dr. Mauro Casadei - Geomorphologist, UC-Berkeley,
    Postdoctoral Scholar, Geology Dept.
  • Prof. George Brimhall - Geologist,
    UC-Berkeley/Space Science Center, 2 Grad.
    Students
  • Prof. James Frew - Computational Geographer,
    UC-Santa Barbara, Sch. Env. Sci. Man.
  • Mr. Ryan Eldridge - GIS Specialist, San Jose
    State Univ., and RCC Graduate Fellow
  • Senior Advisory Committee
  • Dr. Sally Benson -Geohydrologist, LBNL Earth
    Sciences Division Director
  • Prof. Inez Fung - Atmospheric Scientist,
    UC-Berkeley, Atmos. Sciences Center Director
  • Dean Jeff Dozier - Computational Geographer,
    UC-Santa Barbara, Sch. Env. Sci. Man.

3
COLLABORATING PARTNERSHIPS
  • NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center NOAA
    National Weather Service-Sacramento
  • NOAA NCEP Climate Prediction Center SIO
    Experimental Climate Prediction Center
  • California Department of Water Resources San
    Joaquin River Management Program
  • California Department of Conservation UCB Earth
    Resources Center
  • California Department of Forestry and Fire
    Protection UCSB Alexandria Digital Library
  • U.S. Geological Service U.S. Forest Service
  • U.S. Bureau of Reclamation NOAA International
    Research Institute
  • Korean Meteorological Administration Changwon
    National University, South Korea
  • Queensland Department of Natural
    Resources University of Queensland, Australia
  • Chinese Ministry of Water Resources Arkwright
    Insurance Company

4
PROGRESS TO DATE
  • Hydroclimate and streamflow modeling
  • Satellite data applications - current and future
  • Landslide and sediment transport measurements and
    modeling
  • Identification of mine contaminants, water
    quality monitoring and modeling
  • Impact assessment, reports, and workshops
  • Annual progress projection, new partnerships and
    funding
  • Metrics and Methodology for measuring project
    success

5
HYDROCLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW MODELING
  • Automated daily 3-day forecasts of the western
    U.S. posted at web site http//esd.lbl.gov/RCSM
  • A eight year hindcast (1988 - 1995) simulation
    was performed and evaluated, manuscript is in
    internal review.
  • Twelve CNRFC-calibrated river basins have been
    linked to the RCSM, initial verification has
    begun.
  • A downscaled future climate scenario (HadCM2
    transient doubling of carbon dioxide) has been
    completed. This four year (control, 2xCO2) run
    indicates that the western U.S. may be warmer and
    wetter.

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Western US Domains at 36km and 12km Resolutions
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11
Quantitative Precipitation and Streamflow
Forecasts (Hopland, Russian R.)
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15
OBSERVED 30-YEAR PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
16
SIMULATED 8-YEAR PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
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20
STOCHASTIC DOWNSCALING
  • Establish parametric time series models of
    environmental variables from observed records at
    monitoring station locations.
  • Distribute model parameters in space, accounting
    for correlation with satellite products, e.g.
    digital elevation models or land-cover types.
  • Stochastic simulation for generating alternative
    parameter realizations (maps), which reproduce
    exactly observed model parameters at station
    locations, and measures of scale-dependent
    (cross)correlation with satellite products.
  • Output is a set of time series models at any
    location, used for generating alternative
    simulated records of environmental variables,
    e.g. precipitation or temperature.
  • The set of alternative realizations is used for
    propagating uncertainty into impact assessment
    studies, e.g. stream-flow modeling.

21
STOCHASTIC SIMULATION
Observed precipitation
Realization 1
3
2
22
REMOTELY SENSED DATA APPLICATIONS
  • AVHRR and SAR Snow Cover Area (SCA) is beginning
    to be evaluated with model snow depth. Daily SCA
    maps will be produced in collaboration with the
    Arizona RESAC and UCSB/ESSW, Snow water
    equivalent (SWE) will also be generated.
  • AVHRR monthly Leaf Area Index and Green Leaf
    Fraction is used in Land-Surface model
  • Digital Terrain Elevation Data is being used to
    compute hydrologic model parameters
  • High resolution altimetry data is being used for
    landslide model testing
  • Planning to utilize data buyback and data from
    future missions
  • Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (2000
    launch) SWE
  • Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (1999 launch)
    fine-scale topography
  • MODIS snow cover area
  • Vegetation Canopy Lidar (2000 launch) 2 year
    vegetation mapping
  • Apply to the regional scale and statistically
    downscale

23
LANDSLIDE AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT MODELING
  • Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF)
    downscaled to the catchment and hillslope scale.
  • Spatio-temporal distribution maps of the relative
    potential for debris flow initiation due to QPF.
  • Estimations of the consequent path, potential
    size, and final depositional area of debris flows
    applied to the SHALSTAB model.
  • Channel particle size distribution mapping begun,
    initial stochastic model formulated.
    Statistical-dynamical model will be developed.

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26
IDENTIFICATION OF MINE CONTAMINANTS
  • Final development of the portable Analytical
    Spectral Device (ASD) IR and Visible
    spectrometers capability to identify weathered
    minerals that impact water quality, field testing
    at the Cerro Gordo abandoned mine site, Inyo
    Mountains, CA.
  • ASD identified jarosite, geothite, and other
    iron-hydroxides that indicate the release of
    contaminants by the sulfide oxidation process.
  • ASD can distinguish contaminants from the common
    mineral composing bedrock (calcite, dolomite,
    limestone, marble, quartz, shale, conglomerates,
    etc.)
  • Lab development of the real-time computer program
    to automatically reduce the IR spectra for
    reconnaissance digital mapping of abandoned mine
    dumps.
  • Lab verification of the IR determination of Cerro
    Gordo mine site minerals.

27
WATER QUALITY MODELING AND MONITORING
  • REAL-TIME SALINITY FORECASTING IN THE SAN
    JOAQUIN RIVER
  • Development of a decision support system to
    communicate flow and salinity conditions in the
    San Joaquin River.
  • Formation of an interagency team (LBNL, USBR,
    DWR, CRWQCB) to continue development of river
    water quality monitoring network
  • Endorsement by over 20 signatories, representing
    agencies, public and private entities of a
    Memorandum of Understanding for support of the
    project
  • Publication of weekly forecasts of flow and water
    quality conditions on website at
    http//wwwdpla.water.ca.gov/sid/waterquality/realt
    ime/weekly/index.html
  • and through a listserver for the San Joaquin
    River since January 1999 .

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29
IMPACT ASSESSEMENT REPORTS AND WORKSHOPS
  • The IPCC 2000 Scientific Assessment - N. Miller
    and J. Kim (Contributing Authors on regional
    modeling and impacts)
  • U.S. National Assessment 2000 - N. Miller
    (Contributing Author on Mega-West Report, Coastal
    Report). Jan. 2000
  • U.S. National Assessment 2000 Water Sector - N.
    Miller, J. Kim, R. Hartman (Authors to manuscript
    JAWRA Special Issue on Climate Change and Water
    Resources). Dec. 1999
  • Confronting Climate Change in California
    Ecological Impacts on the Golden State, (C.
    Field, F. Davis, C. Gaines, P. Matson, J, Melack,
    and N. Miller), sponsored by the Ecological
    Society of America and the Union of Concerned
    Scientists. Nov. 1999
  • California Climate, Impacts, and Information
    Workshop - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
    Oct. 4, 1999, Report in preparation. (N. Miller
    host)

30
PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR ONE
  • Task 1. Establish western U.S. domain at 36 km
    resolution, begin western U.S. baseline
    simulation using NCEP reanalysis as hindcast, and
    prepare an expanded database.
  • Task 2. Couple CNRFC basins and parameters to the
    existing land-surface module of the RCSM.
  • Task 3. Begin 2xCO2 climate sensitivity data
    study using the Hadley Centres IPCC scenario.
  • Task 4. Begin landslide and sediment transport
    model development.
  • Task 5. Begin environmental site inventory of
    abandoned mines in the Sierra Foothills.
  • Task 6. Advance water quality monitoring system
    and build Decision Support
  • Task 7. Begin to link RCSM output data to NASA,
    USBR, DWR, NWS, NCEP, ESSW user interfaces.
  • Task 8. Significant Results Conference October
    4, 1999

31
PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR TWO
  • Task 1. Continue with tasks identified in Year 1.
  • Task 2. Complete web-based user information
    system, expand and improve based on user
    feedback.
  • Task 3. Evaluate western U.S. baseline simulation
    using NCEP reanalysis as hindcast.
  • Task 4. Evaluate downscaled 2xCO2 climate
    sensitivity study, prepare manuscript for IPCC.
  • Task 5. The landslide model will be tested as a
    hindcast using observed precipitation.
  • Task 6. Abandoned mine site inventory in the
    Mojave desert will begin.
  • Task 7. Significant Results Conference, expand
    user and stakeholders group.
  • Task 8. NASA RESAC Progress Report.

32
PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR THREE
  • Task 1. Continue with tasks from Year 1 and Year
    2.
  • Task 2. Significant Results and Stakeholder
    Workshop, assess effectiveness.
  • Task 3. Reports on advances to users and
    stakeholders .
  • Task 4. NASA RESAC Report.
  • Task 5. Generate sustainable resources for
    continuing activities.

33
NEW PARTNERSHIPS AND FUNDING
  • NASA/ASI Natural Hazards - CASSANDRA A storm
    based model for forecasting the initiation and
    runout of debris flows. W. Dietrich
    (UC-Berkeley), A. Howard (UV-Charlottesville), N.
    Miller (LBNL), J. Kim (LBNL), M. Casadei
    (UC-Berkeley)
  • EPA/STAR - Vulnerability assessment of San
    Joaquin Basin water supply, ecological resources,
    and rural economy due to climate variability and
    extreme weather events. J. Dracup (UCLA), N.
    Miller (LBNL), N. Quinn (LBNL), R. Howitt
    (UC-Davis), L. Grober (Central Valley Regional
    Water Quality Control Board)
  • CALFED - Real-Time forecasting of contaminant
    loading from the Panoche/Silver Creek watershed
    to the San Joaquin River. N. Miller (LBNL), N.
    Quinn (LBNL), M. Martin (Westside Resources
    conservation District), N. Drake (Coordinated
    Resource Management Program), F. Charles
    (McGulley, Frick, and Gillman, Inc.), C. Eacock
    (USBR)

34
METRICS AND METHODOLOGY FOR MEASURING PROJECT
SUCCESS
  • Successful completion of tasks
  • Peer reviewed publications
  • Successful simulations and monitoring of
    short-term and seasonal hydroclimate, streamflow,
    landslide, sediment transport, aquatic and
    contaminants.
  • Application of satellite data to create
    value-added RESAC products
  • Use of RESAC products by stakeholders and the
    general user
  • New partnerships and funding
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