Title: Politics of the Life-Span: A critique of the demography of the life span and its impact on social policy. John A. Vincent University of Exeter. U.K.
1Politics of the Life-Span A critique of the
demography of the life span and its impact on
social policy.John A. VincentUniversity of
Exeter. U.K.
2Projections
- Projections of future demographic trends in terms
of ageing populations are crucial in the process
of forming public policies, insitutional and
commercial strategies. - there are those who believe that immortality is
within reach (Futurists) - those who believe life expectancy will rise to
100 years or more in this century (Optimists)
and - those who believe that life expectancy is
unlikely to exceed an average of around 85 years
in the absence of radical advances in the control
of the aging process (Realists) (Carnes and
Olshansky 2007367) - Elsewhere I have written on the problems
associated with the immortalist / futurist
position. Here I present a radical deconstruction
of a highly influential optimist position.
3Oeppen, Jim and James W.Vaupel (2002) Broken
Limits to Life Expectancy Science 296 (10) May
2002, pp.1029-32. www.sciencemag.org
- Oeppen and Vaupel (2002) state that there is a
very high linear correlation in the historical
trend for female life expectancy in the
record-holding country - This trend has risen at a steady pace of 3 months
per year over the last 160 years. Japanese
females life expectancy currently 85 it will only
take another 45 years to take it (or some other
record breaking country) to 100. - They argue that all previous attempts to specify
maximum life expectancy have failed and conclude
there are no limits to life expectancy.
4Oeppen and Vaupel (2002)
- People are set to live increasingly long lives,
and reaching 100 will soon be "commonplace", say
experts "As the cost of pensions spirals there's
mounting pressure... to raise the age for
retirement "The acute problem for society will
be how to look after all the older people (Heap,
BBC Thursday, 9 May, 2002 ) - Health crisis looms as life expectancy soars
Average ageing forecasts far too low, say
scientists (Meek, Guardian May 10, 2002). - The original paper was written as an attack on
persisteantly over-conservative assumptions about
future life expectancy. - However, their polemical project became hardened
into taken for granted alarmist facts about
future population ageing.
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6Critique of Oeppen and Vaupel.Extrapolation.
- Mathematic projection without a clear theoretical
base mistakes correlation for cause. - The paper contains no developed theory as to why
life expectancy will continue to grow without
limitation. - Insofar as this point is theorised at all, they
refer to continuously occurring gains in medical
knowledge. - They say they do not believe people will become
immortal but without any theoretical underpinning
they are unable to comment on when and how their
prediction will cease to be valid. - We could use the same correlation and show, on
the basis of Oeppen and Vaupels analysis, that
life expectancy was zero in 1660. - The logic of the extrapolation used by Oeppen and
Vaupel could also be used to apply to Olympic
running speeds. This conclusion would be equally
wrong.
7Critique of Oeppen and Vaupel. Biological limits
- The Biology of ageing has been undergoing rapid
change in the last decade with new findings and
new theories. - The significance of these findings for the
potentiality of devising methods to control, slow
or reverse the fundemental ageing process is
controversial. - However, their is a clear consensus within the
bio-gerontological community that the are no
current techniques capable of extending the
maximal human life span. - Today, aging and death are viewed as the
inadvertent but inevitable byproducts of the
degradation of biological structures and
processes that evolved for growth, development,
and reproduction rather than for extended
operation. These structural and functional
constraints exist at every level of biological
organization (cells, tissues, organs, and organ
systems) within the individual, and their
existence imposes practical limits on the life
span of individuals and the life expectancy of
populations. Carnes and Olshanski 2002 p.510
8Critique of Oeppen and Vaupel. choosing extremes
- The use of the most extreme longevity at any
particular date and projecting that forward
almost inevitably slides from being thought of as
a projection of an extreme to a prediction about
future life expectancy in general. - World population as a whole is immune to the
trends revealed in each of Oeppen and Vaupels
specific cases. Namely an s shaped curve in
which secular decline follows an acceleration in
life expectancy gains. - It is critical that we do not lose sight, as so
many commentators have, that the projections
refer to a succession of extremes, they do not
represent the trajectory of any measure of
central tendency (an average life expectancy) or
the any single population. - The projection may prove valid but tell us
nothing at all about average life expectancy in
any particular population in the future. - The most important factor in 20th century gains
in life expectancy has been the decline in infant
mortality. - It is at least a possibility that further
advances in longevity at the oldest ages, even
though advancing at the moment, will be
particularly hard to achieve in the future. This
is shown by the trends to declining gains in
longevity in Japan.
9- Source Statistics and Information Department,
Minister's Secretariat, Ministry of Health and
Welfare, Vital Statistics of Japan.
10Critique of Oeppen and Vaupel. segmentation of
populations.
- It is also to be expected that highly selective
groups will continue in the future to show rapid
gains in extreme longevity. - The concentration within demography on the
Japanese island of Okinawa is a further example
of how demographic extremes have become used to
fuel debates about population ageing in general. - If Oeppen and Vaupel were to control for not only
gender and country, but for social class, their
correlation might be extended. - Those deep frozen corpses in the care of the
Cryonics corporation awaiting the breakthroughs
in Biology to be able to resuscitate them tend to
be very wealthy U.S. males.
11Data sources reliability and definitions.
- Can bureaucratic and institutional procedures in
different countries over a 160 year period
consistently and reliably record the same vital
statistics. Age at death, numbers of live births
are two features which are open to cultural and
historical variation in interpretation and
accuracy in official records. - Life tables used for calculating life expectancy
make assumptions about the span of the oldest age
category. - Age specific mortality rates in the first year of
life are critical to calculating the standard
measure of life expectancy at birth. However, in
historical and cultural terms what is recorded as
a birth (as opposed to other categories such as
still birth, miscarriage, or not recorded at all)
is very varied. Compared to contemporary practice
there is likely to have been an under-recording
of infant mortality rates in the past. - Further in many cultures, including Japan, there
has been a greater tendency to disfavour female
births and less likelihood to record them and
strive strenuously to keep them alive.
12The cohort problem.
- Current increases in life expectancy are viewed
by some as a cohort phenomenon not necessarily a
trend attributable to future ageing populations. - Finch and Crimmins (2004), working from the
immunological theory of ageing argue on the basis
of historical data from Sweden that the ability
of people in the twentieth century to provide
children with a relatively infection free
environment, as well as issues about childhood
nutrition, are an important factor in changes in
later life mortality experienced as the century
progressed. - However, influence of this factor would not be
replicated by further gains in life expectancy
for subsequent cohorts. A finding which is
consistent with the predominant s shaped
pattern of gains in life expectancy. - Other researchers have questioned the long term
significance in the rise in childhood obesity,
particularly linking it through epigenetic
processes to increased late life diabetes and
increased risk of mortality.
13Demographic projections and policy makers.
- The concepts and methods of forecasting future
numbers of older people are constructed through
social processes including the activities of
professional bodies and academic disciplines. - For the actuaries their projections have very
specific financial consequences. This tends to
mean that although they compete with each other
over identifying trends and market opportunities
in particular segments of the population, they
tend to come together in formulating views about
the future national trends. - One of the key debates in the consultation on
revisions to U.K. life tables in 2004 were about
the relative merits of using extrapolation
techniques as opposed to decomposition
techniques. The latter involve examining changes
in to the probability of specific causes of death
and aggregating them into an age specific final
figure. - Such demographic concepts dependency ratio and
life expectancy contain embedded within them
the issues, perceptions, cultural understanding
of the social groups who develop and use them.
The terminology employed in these debates has
ideological as well as technical functions - It is only possible to fully understand these
scientific debates about predictions of future
longevity if they are located in a context of
political economy. How these experts and their
expertise fit into global society.
14Should age categories be thought of as fixed?
- To refuse to criticise the notion of an ageing
population, to accept this kind of calculation
and the fixedness of age categories, is simply an
admission that the threshold for old age has not
evolved for more than 200 years and will not
change for the next fifty, that the starting
point of 60 years is immutable. It implies that
the significance of age does not evolve
historically, that it does not constitute an
historical variable. The different ages in life
childhood, adolescence and old age have
inspired many works, but the thresholds defining
them appear to have escaped historical
development. (Bourdelais 1998110-111)
15Ideological framework for demographic concerns.
- We can ask critical questions about which
population changes become social issues - who is
defining those problems and to what purpose? - There were concerns in the first part of the 20th
century about declines in fertility, loss of
population in war and the possibility of falling
populations. - In the thirty years following the second world
war the major concerns were population growth.
Population time-bombs, it was argued, were
waiting to blow up economic progress and
environmental stability. - In the last twenty years the time bomb has again
become that of an ageing population. Fears about
population have shifted from over-population to
under-population - too many babies to too many
old folk. - Historically different elites have identified
particular demographic changes as a threat, and
their ideologies can identify not only the cause
but also the moral responsibility for these
threats. These ideologies, having defined the
problem, imply courses of action. Powerful elites
select tools to exert control to tackle the
perceived crises.. In the 20C there have been
strong links between demography, eugenics and
social engineering.
16Political economy of population
- This changing demographic agenda is best
understood as reflecting ideological concerns of
dominant elites economic, military, political
and financial. - National and global economic elites want labour
for their enterprises and customers for their
products. In general terms, if demographic
expansion promotes economic expansion all well
and good, but if rapid growth leads to
instability, then concerns emerge. - Military elites are concerned about military
manpower for themselves and their enemies, (c.f.
CIA 2001). - Political elites need to sustain state control
and thus observe, enumerate and manipulate
populations. - The elites who control the multinational firms in
the global finance industry have a specific set
of interests in the success and expansion in the
management of the resources generated by funded
pension schemes.
17The agenda of the global finance industry
- The OECD (1998) Policy Brief states that
population ageing could threaten future economic
growth and prosperity and suggests that yet
greater reform. They identify the following
questions as crucial - Will it continue to be possible to share
societies resources between the working
generation and its dependent non-working members
in ways that do not give rise to unacceptable
societal and inter-generational conflicts? - How can the contribution of older people to
society and economic prosperity be enhanced? - How should pension, health and long-term care
best be reformed? - Which changes in the financial infrastructure are
needed to support the development of funded
pension systems? - To what extent will ageing OECD countries be able
to improve their well-being through growing trade
in goods and services and assets, in particular
with younger, faster-growing non-OECD countries?
(OECD 19981) - But these questions, from the point of view of
the dominant agenda, are rhetorical. The ideology
of pension fund capitalism dictates that the
answers are obviously that older people should
expect less, everyone will have to contribute
more towards pensions, people will have to work
longer for their pensions, the private sector
should be left to manage the funds, and we better
rely on the US to make sure the younger states do
not step out of line. - This and similar approaches tend to leave out of
the equation issues of economic growth and
economic redistribution which have been critical
to the successful establishment of pension
systems in the 20C.
18Conclusion
- It is therefore not surprising that Oeppen and
Vaupels paper met with such a ready audience
from powerful social groups in the global economy
and by re-iteration became reified into the facts
of population ageing. - What the paper was able to do was legitimate the
interests of those who wished to create market
opportunities by dismantling state based PAYG
pension scheme by attaching the apparent
credibility of numerical demographic science to
an explosive statistic. - What we should not allow is the political and
economic debates about priorities for pension
systems and economic support for elderly people
to be sidelined by apparently technical arguments
about population dynamics. Any demographic
theory like any scientific theory is only a good
as the assumptions and methods on which it is
based.
19This presentation, and various papers can be
viewed athttp//www.people.exeter.ac.uk/JVincen
t/