Arab Political Demography Development, Resources, and Demography in the Middle East: Is Oil Destroying the Arab world?

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Arab Political DemographyDevelopment, Resources,
and Demography in the Middle East Is Oil
Destroying the Arab world?

• Patrick Buckley
• Dept. Envr Studies Geography

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https//www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_a
nd_babies?languageent-770689
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vezVk1ahRF78
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Introduction

• Start combining demographics with migration,
  religion, linguistics, culture, economics, and
  potential global security issues

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Some Questions

• Is there an Arab World? Is this term based on a
  Formal, Functional, or Vernacular Region?
• Does it relate to the Muslim World?

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As a Linguistic Region
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Arab World Linguistically Defined
Note how this is the heart of Islam, but not all
or even most of Islam.
Critical thinking Would this be a formal,
functional, or vernacular region?
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Result

• Yes, seems fairly unified it shares a common
  characteristic (formal region) LANGUAGE

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As a Historical Region
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Arab World Historically Defined
The Arab empire that extended into Europe until
1491
Critical thinking Would this be a formal,
functional, or vernacular region?
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Result

• Perhaps, over about 1,400 years a number of
  empires have unified this region, but not all
  were controlled by Arabs.
• Each of these empires would also be a formal
  region

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As a Religous Region
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With few exceptions Islam is a result of Arab
Expansion/Trade
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Result

• Depends, Islam certainly dominates the region,
  but it has branches and there are also some
  minority religions including branches of
  Christianity.
• Still a broadly a formal region, but note the
  fuzzy borders as Islam as a varies.

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Religious in Arab League
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As a Political Region
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Today The Arab World Politically Defined the
Arab League
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The Arab League - The League of Arab States
Arab League, informal name of the League of Arab
States, a voluntary association of independent
countries whose peoples are mainly Arabic
speaking. Its stated purposes are to strengthen
ties among the member states, coordinate their
policies, and promote their common interests.
MauritaniaMorocco Oman Qatar Saudi
Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia U.A.E Yemen
Algeria Bahrain Comoros Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jorda
n Kuwait Lebanon Libya
FACTS OVERVIEW Founded 1945 Headquarters
Cairo, Egypt Key players Egypt, Saudi Arabia
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How does this compare to the US?
Note this crude map contains only part of the
Arab League, plus two non-Arab League state. But
it should get you thinking!!!
Turkey not Arab
Iran not Arab
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More Direct Comparison
USA Population 314 million (US Census Bureau
estimate, 2012) Capital Washington D.C. Area
3.8 million sq miles Major language English
Major religion Christianity Life expectancy
75 years (men), 80 years (women) (UN)
Arab League Founded 1945 Population 340
million (approx. 2007) Headquarters Cairo,
Egypt Area 5.25 million square miles Key
players Egypt, Saudi Arabia Members 22 members
including Palestine Major language Arabic Life
Expectancy Varies generally approaches 70 years
for men
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Conclusion of Comparison

• Today the Arab League population is bigger than
  the US
• 25 years from now its could be 50 greater than
  the US
• Question How unified is this region? How well
  does it exist as a Formal rather than merely
  Vernacular Region.

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Result
Organization of American States

• On paper there is a single group, but it is of
  limited use, much like the Organization of
  American States for North and South America

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As a Unified Region
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How unified is this region?
Variations on the Western Fringe Note that
Turks, Kurds, and Persians are not Arabs
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Note Shia Locations and Proportions
Inside there are variations.
Winckler (2005) notes that most if not all Arab
nations have missing religious and ethnic data to
hide/ignore problematic data inside their
countries
Click here for examples http//www.pbs.org/wgbh/g
lobalconnections/mideast/maps/final_maps_soc.swf
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Examples of Hidden Information
Country What it has to hide
Lebanon Religious differences not measured since 1932
Syria Religious differences not measured since 1960
Jordon Ethnic differences not measured since 1948
S. Arabia Total population counts questionable, no religious data
Egypt Undercounts Coptic Christians
Bahrain Sunni Royal Family undercounts Shi'a majority
Qatar With an estimate of 73 Foreigners, such data not measured
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Unemployment

• No Arab state seems to accurately report
  unemployment
• For example S. Arabia has claimed about 10 when
  reality could be as high as 20 to 30.(recent
  Wall Street Journal put it even higher)
• See http//www.indexmundi.com/saudi_arabia/unemplo
  yment_rate.html

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How does this relate to Oil/Gas?

• Again do we have an Arab World or a couple of
  worlds? Oil and Non-oil?
• In general many Arab countries with the largest
  populations have the least oil.

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As an Economic Region
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Oil Reserves (Gb) Oil Reserves (Gb)
Country Gb
OPEC Nations OPEC Nations
Saudi Arabia 261.8
Iraq 112.5
United Arab Emirates 97.8
Kuwait 96.5
Iran 89.7
Venezuela 77.8
Libya 29.5
Nigeria 24
Qatar 15.2
Algeria 9.2
Indonesia 5
Non-OPEC Nations Non-OPEC Nations
Canada 180
Russia 60
United States 22.4
Mexico 12.6
Norway 10.2
Oman 5.5
United Kingdom 4.7
Egypt 3.7
Gb Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration. Gb Billion barrels. "Oil and Gas Journal" 2003 Figures used by the Energy Information Administration.
http//www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/colombia
/images/map04.gif
Two oil centers in Arab Region
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Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) the oil gas rich
Saudi Arabia Oman United Arab Emirates Bahrain Ku
wait Qatar
The Gulf Cooperation Council, created in response
to the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, established
the Gulf Standards Organization in November 1982
and the Gulf Investment Corporation in 1984.
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Oil Reserves (Gb) Oil Reserves (Gb)  
Country Gb GCC
OPEC Nations OPEC Nations  
Saudi Arabia 261.8 Y
United Arab Emirates 97.8 Y
Kuwait 96.5 Y
Libya 29.5  
Qatar 15.2 Y
Algeria 9.2  
Non-OPEC Nations Non-OPEC Nations  
Oman 5.5 Y
Egypt 3.7  
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If Iraq were to join the GCC then the vast
majority of world oil reserves would be
controlled by this group.
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A result

• Wealth and jobs have become highly concentrated
  in the region around the Gulf resulting in large
  scale migration into the Gulf area.
• GCC states have favored pro-natalist (pro-birth)
  policies even as Non-Oil states have started
  moving towards anti-natalist policies, why?

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• Population in 2000
• Nationals ............ 20 million
• Non-nationals . 10 million

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Note how many 30-35 year old Saudis there are
and how many non-nationals
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As a Demographic Region
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1
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4 patterns emerge (1) low growth regions,
(2)slowing regions, (3) oil rich regions, and (4)
least developed regions (not on chart).
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Result

• Some argue that the Arab world is splitting into
  these 4 different parts with following results

Rapid Growth
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Today
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Most recent 2016
2016
    Fertility Rate
Low Growth Lebanon 1.7
Slowing Egypt 2.4
Oil Rich S. Arabia 2.7
Least Devloped Yemen 4.0
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Additional Results

1. Slow growth areas will much like Europe
   demographically will soon loose population
2. Slowing areas will face possible instability and
   hope to supply Europe and the GCC with labor

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Possible Results

• 3. The GCC hopes to grow enough labor to oust
  outsiders, but as population momentum grows,
  energy resources will decline too many for too
  little?
• 4. The not developing areas do to civil wars will
  continue to fuel regional and world instability

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Somalia???
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Final Conclusions

• There are a number of factors suggesting a
  unified Arab World, but
• Differences in resources and resulting economies
  has resulted in different demographic patters and
  policy and thus possible futures
• Oil wealth seems to be causing more
  differentiation rather than unity between Arab
  states

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In class Questions

1. Is there an Arab World? How many different ways
   did we look at this and what is the evidence for
   or against?
2. In your opinion is the pro-natal policies of the
   Gulf states a good thing or a bad thing?
3. In the near future can the Arab World rival the
   US? Explain.

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Summary

• As Region
• Vernacular popular concept Arab World
• Formal Linguistic, Historical Empires,
  Religious, Political
• How Unified?
• Religious/Historical Rivalries
• Uneven Economies
• Uneven Resources
• Four Different Demographic Patterns