Agriculture

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Agriculture Global, Regional and National
Issues in Perspective
Mangala Rai President National Academy of
Agricultural Sciences New Delhi, India
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Where We Stand ?

• First World Food Summit promised to eradicate
  world hunger within a decade.
• Since then, 3 World Food Summits held and
  resolved to reduce world hunger only to half by
  2015.
• Different scenarios depict 2.3 to 3.3 global
  economic growth and population varying from 8.1
  to 14.0 billion in 2080.

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People at risk of hunger, baseline projection
REF-01 Million 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
Africa 198 253 289 319 326
Asia, East 172 142 111 80 35
Asia, South 359 361 303 219 72
Latin America 58 61 55 51 30
Middle East N. Africa 43 50 49 50 39
Rest of World 53 51 47 46 33
World 884 918 854 765 536
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Impact of climate change on land suitability and
potential production of cereals on current
rainfed cultivated land, HadCM3 A2, 2020s, 2050s,
2080s
Source Fischer et al., 2008.
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Impact of climate change on land suitability and
potential production of cereals on rainfed
cultivated land, HadCM3 A2 2080s
Source Fischer et al., 2008.
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Economic Impacts of Climate ChangeHadley A1F1
Scenario 2080
Ag GDP Cereal Production World
-1.5 -1.4 Developed -0.5
2.8 North America 7.5 1.3 Europe
-14.7 -3.4 Developing
-1.9 -3.9 Africa -4.9 -0.6 Latin
America 3.7 15.9 Asia -4.3 -8.6 World
Market prices( change from Ref
Scenario) Cereals 19.5 All crops 10.5
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Agriculture Spending to Total Spending by
Developing Country Governments
(in )
Year Africa Asia Latin America
1980 6.4 15.0 8.0
2002 4.5 5.6 2.5
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Country Background
Source FAO database.
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Trend in Food InflationYear on Year () Change

Food inflation started rising from 2004. Reached
double digit during 2008. It is continuing to
remain high even during 2009.
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Projected impacts of climate change

• Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer
  requirement for the same production targets and
  result in higher emissions
• Increasing sea and river water temperatures are
  likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and
  harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
• Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement
  for livestock

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These emissions are largely from the
industrialized countries as is evident from the
per capita emission of greenhouse gases of
different regions
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How can we Reduce Emission of Greenhouse Gases
from Agriculture?

• Improve management of water and fertilizers in
  rice paddies use nitrification inhibitors,
  fertilizer placement/schedules
• Improve management of livestock population and
  its diet
• Increase soil carbon minimal tillage, residue
  management
• Improve energy use efficiency in agriculture
  better designs of machinery, and by conservation
  practices
• Change land use increasing area under biofuels,
  agro-forestry - but trade-off with food
  production.

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How to adapt Agriculture to Climate Change?

• Investments in adaptation research capacity
  varieties, land use systems, resource
  conservation technologies, pest surveillance
• Changes in policies e.g. incentives for
  conservation of carbon, water, and energy and
  use efficiency, pricing of resources
• Investments in infrastructure for water
  management
• Greater insurance coverage for the farm
• Improved communication of climate changes and
  options to adapt to them
• Creating alternate livelihood options and
  reducing dependence on agriculture

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Enhance Research Capacity and International
Collaboration

• Development of climate responsive crops and land
  use systems
• Seasonal weather forecasts
• Regionally differentiated contingency plans for
  increased risk management
• Reexamine water and fertilizer management with
  added dimension of reducing GHG emissions.
• Determine optimal size of livestock population
  considering milk requirement, diet, greenhouse
  gas emissions, and social issues.
• Development of decision support systems for
  policy guidance

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Strengthen Institutions

• Establish an Agricultural Intelligence System for
  impact of weather and inputs on production of
  important commodities at national as well as
  international level.
• Increase pest surveillance
• Explore feasibility of establishing feed, fodder,
  and seed banks
• Increase farm insurance coverage using weather
  derivatives
• Enhance climate literacy

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Major Challenges in Agriculture 

• Raise and sustain agriculture growth
• Enhance income and employment
• Ensure food and nutrition security
• Adapt to climate change
• Adjust to changes in energy scenario
• Maintain bio safety and bio security
• Make sustainable use of natural resources
• Protect bio-diversity
• Adjust to global shocks

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New Opportunities

• Biotechnology and Nanotechnology opens new vistas
• Renewed emphasis on agriculture likely to turn
  the environment favourable
• Trend towards Bios
• Bio pesticide, bio sensors, bio remediation, bio
  molecules, bio medicine, bio cosmetics
• New Commerce and trade Food chain, processing,
  value addition
• Regional cooperation in pest management,
  technology generation, adoption, human resource
  development

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Green Revolution to Gene Revolution
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Rate of Gain in Ag. Productivity is Declining
Why Transgenics ?
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• Why Transgenics?
• More food
• Better quality food
• Safer food
• Healthier foods
• Designer foods

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Why Transgenics ?
The projected world population growth 70-75
millions per year for next 50 years
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Microbes are the Factory of Metabolic Products

• Amino acids
• Nucleotides
• Vitamins
• Solvents
• Organic acids
• Hypocholesterolemic agents
• Enzyme inhibitors
• Immunosuppressants
• Biopesticides.
• Microherbicides
• Plant growth promoters and disease
• suppressor
• Biocontrol agents
• Biofertilizers

Millions tons are produced each year with a
total multibillion dollar market
Markets of over 50 billion dollars per year.
Markets of over 700 billion dollars per year.
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CA Systems Rely on Multi-Disciplinary Efforts
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Generic areas for priority attention

• Hybrid culture in Agriculture
• Transgenic culture in Agriculture
• Water productivity enhancement and multiple use
  of water
• Input use efficiency enhancement
• Increasing precision in agriculture
• Enhanced protected cultivation
• Biosensors, Biofuels, Biomolecules,
  Biofortification, Biosafety, Biosecurity,
  Bioremediation, Biofertilization
• IT-based decision support systems for technology
  transfer
• Processing, storage and loss reduction
• Capacity building

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Generic areas for priority attention contd..

• Making land and water resources development and
  utilization economically viable
• Enforcing environmental laws to control water
  pollution, land degradation and erosion
• Providing adequate public funds for conducting
  frontier research
• Mass movement and large-scale peoples
  participation in development, supply and
  utilization of water and land resources at all
  levels

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Generic areas for priority attention contd..

• Enhance investment in irrigation infrastructure,
  and efficient water use technologies.
• Develop policy framework for greater adoption of
  scientific pricing policies for water, land,
  energy, and other resources.
• Consider financial incentives for improved land
  management, e.g. resource conservation/
  enhancement (water, carbon).
• Consider incentives to industry and farmers for
  reducing emissions such as for neem coated urea
• Explore international partnerships for joint
  research and technology development

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Thanks