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Agriculture Global, Regional and National Issues in Perspective Mangala Rai President National Academy of Agricultural Sciences New Delhi, India – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Agriculture

Agriculture Global, Regional and National
Issues in Perspective
Mangala Rai President National Academy of
Agricultural Sciences New Delhi, India
Where We Stand ?
  • First World Food Summit promised to eradicate
    world hunger within a decade.
  • Since then, 3 World Food Summits held and
    resolved to reduce world hunger only to half by
  • Different scenarios depict 2.3 to 3.3 global
    economic growth and population varying from 8.1
    to 14.0 billion in 2080.

People at risk of hunger, baseline projection
REF-01 Million 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
Africa 198 253 289 319 326
Asia, East 172 142 111 80 35
Asia, South 359 361 303 219 72
Latin America 58 61 55 51 30
Middle East N. Africa 43 50 49 50 39
Rest of World 53 51 47 46 33
World 884 918 854 765 536
Impact of climate change on land suitability and
potential production of cereals on current
rainfed cultivated land, HadCM3 A2, 2020s, 2050s,
Source Fischer et al., 2008.
Impact of climate change on land suitability and
potential production of cereals on rainfed
cultivated land, HadCM3 A2 2080s
Source Fischer et al., 2008.
Economic Impacts of Climate ChangeHadley A1F1
Scenario 2080
Ag GDP Cereal Production World
-1.5 -1.4 Developed -0.5
2.8 North America 7.5 1.3 Europe
-14.7 -3.4 Developing
-1.9 -3.9 Africa -4.9 -0.6 Latin
America 3.7 15.9 Asia -4.3 -8.6 World
Market prices( change from Ref
Scenario) Cereals 19.5 All crops 10.5
Agriculture Spending to Total Spending by
Developing Country Governments
(in )
Year Africa Asia Latin America
1980 6.4 15.0 8.0
2002 4.5 5.6 2.5
Country Background
Source FAO database.
Trend in Food InflationYear on Year () Change

Food inflation started rising from 2004. Reached
double digit during 2008. It is continuing to
remain high even during 2009.
Projected impacts of climate change
  • Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer
    requirement for the same production targets and
    result in higher emissions
  • Increasing sea and river water temperatures are
    likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and
    harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030.
  • Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement
    for livestock

These emissions are largely from the
industrialized countries as is evident from the
per capita emission of greenhouse gases of
different regions
How can we Reduce Emission of Greenhouse Gases
from Agriculture?
  • Improve management of water and fertilizers in
    rice paddies use nitrification inhibitors,
    fertilizer placement/schedules
  • Improve management of livestock population and
    its diet
  • Increase soil carbon minimal tillage, residue
  • Improve energy use efficiency in agriculture
    better designs of machinery, and by conservation
  • Change land use increasing area under biofuels,
    agro-forestry - but trade-off with food

How to adapt Agriculture to Climate Change?
  • Investments in adaptation research capacity
    varieties, land use systems, resource
    conservation technologies, pest surveillance
  • Changes in policies e.g. incentives for
    conservation of carbon, water, and energy and
    use efficiency, pricing of resources
  • Investments in infrastructure for water
  • Greater insurance coverage for the farm
  • Improved communication of climate changes and
    options to adapt to them
  • Creating alternate livelihood options and
    reducing dependence on agriculture

Enhance Research Capacity and International
  • Development of climate responsive crops and land
    use systems
  • Seasonal weather forecasts
  • Regionally differentiated contingency plans for
    increased risk management
  • Reexamine water and fertilizer management with
    added dimension of reducing GHG emissions.
  • Determine optimal size of livestock population
    considering milk requirement, diet, greenhouse
    gas emissions, and social issues.
  • Development of decision support systems for
    policy guidance

Strengthen Institutions
  • Establish an Agricultural Intelligence System for
    impact of weather and inputs on production of
    important commodities at national as well as
    international level.
  • Increase pest surveillance
  • Explore feasibility of establishing feed, fodder,
    and seed banks
  • Increase farm insurance coverage using weather
  • Enhance climate literacy

Major Challenges in Agriculture 
  • Raise and sustain agriculture growth
  • Enhance income and employment
  • Ensure food and nutrition security
  • Adapt to climate change
  • Adjust to changes in energy scenario
  • Maintain bio safety and bio security
  • Make sustainable use of natural resources
  • Protect bio-diversity
  • Adjust to global shocks

New Opportunities
  • Biotechnology and Nanotechnology opens new vistas
  • Renewed emphasis on agriculture likely to turn
    the environment favourable
  • Trend towards Bios
  • Bio pesticide, bio sensors, bio remediation, bio
    molecules, bio medicine, bio cosmetics
  • New Commerce and trade Food chain, processing,
    value addition
  • Regional cooperation in pest management,
    technology generation, adoption, human resource

Green Revolution to Gene Revolution
Rate of Gain in Ag. Productivity is Declining
Why Transgenics ?
  • Why Transgenics?
  • More food
  • Better quality food
  • Safer food
  • Healthier foods
  • Designer foods

Why Transgenics ?
The projected world population growth 70-75
millions per year for next 50 years
Microbes are the Factory of Metabolic Products
  • Amino acids
  • Nucleotides
  • Vitamins
  • Solvents
  • Organic acids
  • Hypocholesterolemic agents
  • Enzyme inhibitors
  • Immunosuppressants
  • Biopesticides.
  • Microherbicides
  • Plant growth promoters and disease
  • suppressor
  • Biocontrol agents
  • Biofertilizers

Millions tons are produced each year with a
total multibillion dollar market
Markets of over 50 billion dollars per year.
Markets of over 700 billion dollars per year.
CA Systems Rely on Multi-Disciplinary Efforts
Generic areas for priority attention
  • Hybrid culture in Agriculture
  • Transgenic culture in Agriculture
  • Water productivity enhancement and multiple use
    of water
  • Input use efficiency enhancement
  • Increasing precision in agriculture
  • Enhanced protected cultivation
  • Biosensors, Biofuels, Biomolecules,
    Biofortification, Biosafety, Biosecurity,
    Bioremediation, Biofertilization
  • IT-based decision support systems for technology
  • Processing, storage and loss reduction
  • Capacity building

Generic areas for priority attention contd..
  • Making land and water resources development and
    utilization economically viable
  • Enforcing environmental laws to control water
    pollution, land degradation and erosion
  • Providing adequate public funds for conducting
    frontier research
  • Mass movement and large-scale peoples
    participation in development, supply and
    utilization of water and land resources at all

Generic areas for priority attention contd..
  • Enhance investment in irrigation infrastructure,
    and efficient water use technologies.
  • Develop policy framework for greater adoption of
    scientific pricing policies for water, land,
    energy, and other resources.
  • Consider financial incentives for improved land
    management, e.g. resource conservation/
    enhancement (water, carbon).
  • Consider incentives to industry and farmers for
    reducing emissions such as for neem coated urea
  • Explore international partnerships for joint
    research and technology development

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