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The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts U.W. Program on Climate Change October 20, 2009 Daniel J. Vimont University of Wisconsin - Madison

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Title: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts U.W. Program on Climate Change October 20, 2009 Daniel J. Vimont University of Wisconsin - Madison


1
The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts U.W. Program on Climate Change October
20, 2009 Daniel J. Vimont University of Wisconsin
- Madison
Center for Sustainability and the Global
Environment (SAGE) University of Wisconsin,
Madison
2
The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts Daniel J. Vimont University of Wisconsin
- Madison Thanks to Steve Vavrus, David Lorenz,
Michael Notaro (CCR) Chris Kucharik (SAGE) Jack
Williams (UW Geography) Wisconsin State
Climatology Office Wisconsin Initiative on
Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Wisconsin Focus on
Energy Program
3
Outline
  • Introduction
  • A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate
    Change Impacts (or WICCI)
  • WICCI Organizational Structure
  • WICCI as a boundary organization
  • Downscaling Methodology and Results
  • Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
  • Conclusions

4
Outline
  • Introduction
  • A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate
    Change Impacts (or WICCI)
  • WICCI Organizational Structure
  • WICCI as a boundary organization
  • Downscaling Methodology and Results
  • Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
  • Conclusions

5
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
WICCI Partnership between the UW Nelson
Institute for Environmental Studies, the
Wisconsin DNR, and other state groups Goal
Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on
specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems
and regions evaluate potential effects on
industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human
activities and develop and recommend adaptation
strategies
http//www.wicci.wisc.edu
6
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
  • History
  • June, 2007 Initial meeting between DNR and UW.
    Outlined idea.
  • Summer, 2007 Organizational structure outlined
  • Fall 2007 Present Science Council formed and
    operational
  • Fall 2007 First working group(s) formed.
    Climate Working Group
  • Spring / Summer, 2008 First major funding FOE
    downscaling (183K)
  • Jan 12, 2009 First WG meeting (gt100
    participants)
  • Feb 2, 2009 Advisory Council formed

http//www.wicci.wisc.edu
7
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
  • History
  • Spring, 2009 Bracing for Impact series of
    lectures for public and WPT
  • August, 2009 Submitted proposal for Great Lakes
    RISA
  • Sept. 2, 2009 Brief the Secretary of the DNR,
    suggested coordination with the Governors staff.
  • Sept. 14, 2009 Second Advisory Council Meeting
    (downscaling results released)
  • Sept. 15, 2009 Public (media) release of
    downscaling results
  • Sept. 21, 2009 Second working group meeting
    (150 participants)
  • Fall, 2010 First Assessment Report

http//www.wicci.wisc.edu
8
Outline
  • Introduction
  • A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate
    Change Impacts (or WICCI)
  • WICCI Organizational Structure
  • WICCI as a boundary organization
  • Downscaling Methodology and Results
  • Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
  • Conclusions

9
WICCI Organizational Structure
  • Needs in Climate Impact Assessment
  • Broad expertise across disciplines
  • Stakeholder engagement
  • Science and policy representation and expertise
  • Legitimacy within and across scientific and
    policy communities
  • Public engagement and support

10
WICCI Organizational Structure
Boundary Objects Objects that sit between
social worlds, like science and nonscience.
they can be used by individuals within each for
specific purposes without losing their own
identity (from Guston, 2001)
11
WICCI Organizational Structure
  • Boundary Organizations
  • Provide the opportunity and sometimes the
    incentives for the creation and use of boundary
    objects
  • They involve the participation of actors from
    both sides of the boundary, as well as
    professionals who serve a mediating role
  • Exist at the frontier of the two relatively
    different social worlds of politics and science,
    but they have distinct lines of accountability to
    each
  • (from Guston, 2001)

12
WICCI Organizational Structure
WICCI as a Boundary Organization
13
WICCI Organizational Structure
Science Council 20 members representing a
variety of expertise in Wisconsin. Primary
function is to organize and coordinate Working
Groups that have the scientific expertise to
assess climate change impacts pertinent to
specific issues or areas of concern.
14
WICCI Organizational Structure
Advisory Committee Representatives of business
interests, non-governmental organizations,
municipalities, agencies, state and local
government, and other stakeholders. Advises
WICCI, and provides engagement / link to
stakeholders.
15
WICCI Organizational Structure
Operations and Outreach Provides logistical
support to the Science Council and performs
outreach functions related to the mission of
WICCI (e.g. media release, public lectures, etc.)
16
WICCI Organizational Structure
Working Groups created by the Science Council
to conduct science-based assessments of climate
change impacts pertaining to specific topics or
areas of concern and to make recommendations on
adaptation strategies
17
WICCI Working Groups
18
WICCI Future Directions
Assessment Reports First Assessment Report to
be completed Fall, 2010. This will include an
assessment of physical climate change in
Wisconsin and specific vulnerabilities. Funding
Some sort of steady funding is needed. We have
applied for a Great Lakes RISA, and will be
submitting a proposal for a USGS Midwest Regional
Center. Public / Political Connections We have
launched a (brief) media campaign, and will
continue public lecture series. We also are
actively travelling around the state to give
talks, including to political groups (e.g. the
Public
19
Outline
  • Introduction
  • A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate
    Change Impacts (or WICCI)
  • WICCI Organizational Structure
  • WICCI as a boundary organization
  • Downscaling Methodology and Results
  • Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
  • Conclusions

20
Needs for Downscaled Data
Characterize Uncertainty Uncertainty from
large-scale model physics, emissions scenario,
transition from large to small scale, additional
uncertainty (from subjective assessment) High
resolution (spatial and temporal) 8-10km
resolution, daily time scale Need to represent
extremes Extreme precipitation is necessary for
hydrology extreme temperature for human health /
forestry / others FLEXIBILITY!!! Numerous
potential applications, so flexibility is needed!
21
Global Climate Change
Moving from Global to Regional
Downscaling Interpret global projections on a
scale relevant to climate impacts. WICCI Climate
Working Group / Focus on Energy
22
Problems with simple interpolation
23
Global to Local Climate Change
Moving from Global to Regional
Downscaling Method Downscale Probability
Distribution, instead of actual variable.
  • Advantages
  • PDF is large-scale, so method is more true to
    technique
  • Extreme events are better characterized
  • PDFs are more flexible allows a variety of
    applications
  • Work by David Lorenz - WICCI Climate Working
    Group / Focus on Energy

24
Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature
25
Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature
  • The large-scale predictors do not contain all the
    information we need to know to predict the
    precipitation (P) and temperature (T) at a
    particular point.
  • This uncertainty in predicting P and T has
    important implications for generating downscaled
    P and T with realistic variance and extremes.
  • We must predict more the just the most likely
    value for P and T given the large scale fields,
    but also the distribution of the errors from this
    value.
  • The downscaled P and T are the sum of 1) the most
    likely value and 2) a random number generated
    from the distribution of the errors. Both
    components are required to give realistic
    variance and extremes.

26
Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature
  • Train the downscaling on station data (COOP
    stations) and NCEP reanalysis precipitation (its
    like a GCM)
  • Debias daily CDF of large-scale predictors from
    each global climate model to NCEP CDF
  • Use downscaling relationships from observations
    on global climate models. Estimate parameters of
    sub-gridscale distribution at each station
    location.
  • Interpolate distribution parameters (not actual
    data) to fine-scale grid -
  • Final product daily varying probability
    distribution on a high-resolution grid, for each
    climate model, and for each emissions scenario.

27
Temperature
Temperature is downscaled using a standard normal
distribution
28
Temperature
Temperature is downscaled using a standard normal
distribution (valid because residuals are normal)
Large Scale
Small Scale (raw)
29
Precipitation
Two steps 1) Bernoulli distribution for rain /
no rain. 2) Generalized gamma distribution for
rain amount.
The histogram of precipitation amount when the
large-scale predictor is in a) the 25th to 27.5th
percentile and b) the 97.5th to 100th percentile
30
Precipitation
Gamma Generalized Gamma
31
How does it perform?
32
  • Ways to use the data
  • Classic Risk Assessment
  • Use actual probability distributions to identify
    Risk as the product of probability and
    consequence
  • Spatio-temporal Data
  • Generate spatial data using a weather
    generator type noise pattern.
  • 3. Historical Rescaling
  • Rescale an existing time series from a
    present-day PDF to a future PDF.

33
Actual Probability Distributions
  • Risk Assessment
  • Identify threshold / response surface
  • Define present day risk with present day
    probability distribution
  • Compare future risk with future probability
    distribution
  • Explore how adaptation strategies can impact risk

Adaption
Probability
Climate Space
34
Intense Precipitation Events
35
Global Climate Change
Thanks to D. Lorenz
Downscaling Focus global projections to a scale
relevant to climate impacts. WICCI Climate
Working Group / Focus on Energy
36
  • Temporal Correlation between Stations
  • Expect downscaled station data to be correlated
    with each other because a portion of the
    stations variability is controlled by the
    large-scale.
  • However, if the spatial scale of the "random
    component" of the P (or T) variability is larger
    the separation between stations, then one expects
    the downscaled P (or T) to under-estimate the
    correlation between stations.

37
Temporal Correlation between Stations To remedy
this situation, the random numbers used to
generate the precipitation at the different
stations are not independent but instead are
correlated with each other. Let R be a nstat X
ntime matrix of independent random numbers used
to generate the P occurrence. The new R to
generate the P occurrence is WR, where W is a
nstat X nstat matrix of weights.
38
Spatial and / or temporal data
39
Annual Temperature Change
40
Winter Temperature Change
41
gt90 Days, and lt0 Nights
42
Winter Precipitation Change
43
Rescale a historical time series
  • Why to use this approach
  • Youve already done some analysis with historical
    weather data
  • Impact is event-like
  • Covariates are important (e.g. warm, wet, and
    windy on a given day)
  • Policy decisions can be compared to historical
    decisions

Probability
MaxT (e.g.)
44
Outline
  • Introduction
  • A history of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate
    Change Impacts (or WICCI)
  • WICCI Organizational Structure
  • WICCI as a boundary organization
  • Downscaling Methodology and Results
  • Downscaling for Climate Impacts Assessment
  • Conclusions

45
Climate Change Impacts in Wisconsin
  • The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
    Impacts (WICCI)
  • WICCI is set up as a boundary organization that
    includes climate sciences, impact sciences, and
    policy makers.
  • The organizational structure engages stakeholders
    and climate / impact scientists alike, while
    preserving the identities of each group.
  • Working groups allow focused and efficient
    efforts at understanding specific impacted
    systems
  • The Operations and Outreach arm actively engages
    the public, and works to build support for the
    group in new and existing stakeholder
    communities.

46
Climate Change Impacts in Wisconsin
  • The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
    Impacts (WICCI)
  • Future directions
  • Base funding is needed as interest in the group
    snowballs.
  • Assessment reports to be completed annually.
  • Continued public outreach and engagement needed
    to build support at the state and local levels.

47
Climate Change Impacts in Wisconsin
  • Downscaling Climate over Wisconsin
  • Downscaled projections of precipitation and
    maximum and minimum temperature for Wisconsin
    have been completed.
  • The downscaling methodology predicts the (daily)
    probability distribution for a specific station
    based on large scale inputs.
  • The advantages of the downscaling technique
    include
  • (a) it works well
  • (b) interpolation of distribution parameters
    avoids bias in extremes or discrete events
  • (c) uncertainty is characterized across various
    dimensions
  • (d) the resulting data are very flexible

48
Resources
  • Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts
  • http//www.wicci.wisc.edu
  • Governors Task Force on Global Warming
  • http//dnr.wi.gov/environmentprotect/gtfgw/
  • UW Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
  • http//www.aos.wisc.edu
  • Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
  • http//www.nelson.wisc.edu
  • Center for Climatic Research
  • http//ccr.aos.wisc.edu
  • Center for Sustainability and the Global
    Environment
  • http//www.sage.wisc.edu
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • http//www.ipcc.ch

49
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