TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE: TOWARDS A NEW METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY

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TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE TOWARDS A NEW
METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF
VULNERABILITY
BY
ESTHER KAGURE MUNYIRI Lecturer, Kenyatta
University Department of Tourism Management
ekagure_at_yahoo.com
Ecotourism Conference 2012
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INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND
Economic activity worldwide is estimated at some
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World
contribute 6-7 employment worldwide
Kenya
1 million tourists in 2010 generated US1 billion
One of the largest foreign exchange earner 10
GDP and 9 employment
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Climate is average weather. Climate is average
of temperature, precipitation and wind over a
period of time
Climate change - any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or as a result
of human activity
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Development of interest on climate change

• Late 1800s - Evidence of anthropogenic climate
  change first emerged
• Late 1950s Measured the concentration of Co2
  levels in the atmosphere
• 1988 - IPCC - provides scientific view of climate
  in IPCC Assessment Reports.(1990, 1995, 2001 and
  2007)
• 1992 - Earth Summit - Outcome - UNFCC (key
  international treaty to reduce GHG

First International Conference on Climate Change
and Tourism - Djerba 2003 2nd - in Davos,
Switzerland - 2007.
Tourism
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Impacts of climate change

• Increased temperature - 0.76C (1850-1899
  2001-2005)
• Greater tropical storm intensity and peak
• More intense precipitation events
• longer and more severe droughts

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Aim of the study

• To develop a methodology and model for the
  assessment of vulnerability of tourism to climate
  change.
• To develop stakeholders collaborative and
  participatory strategies and encourage political
  commitment in order to tackle present and future
  impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.

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LITERATURE REVIEW
Tourism and Climate

• Tourism is a major contributor of greenhouse
  gases which in turn contribute to climate change.
• Key resource for tourism
• Tourism can be a tool for climate change
  mitigation

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Impacts on tourism
Climate poses a severe risk to tourism in
relation to extreme events such as floods,
droughts and heat waves,

• increased infrastructure damage
• additional emergency preparedness requirements
• higher operating expenses (e.g., insurance,
  backup water and power systems, and evacuations)
• business interruptions
• Competitiveness
• Profitability

Most vulnerable - the Caribbean, Small Island
Developing States, Southeast Asia and Africa.
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Effect on tourism

• Tourist mobility and flows - mitigation
  policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions

Through - transport costs and changed
environmental attitudes

• National tourism economies of many long-haul
  destinations

• Political instability of some nations

• Shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes is
  very likely

• Poverty reduction, health and environmental
  Millennium Development Goals affected.

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• Climate-induced environmental changes
• changes in biodiversity loss
• water availability
• increased natural hazards
• reduced landscape aesthetic
• altered agricultural production
• coastal erosion and inundation
• damage to infrastructure and the increasing
  incidence of vector-borne diseases

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The case of Kenya Tourism in Kenya Contributes
18 - foreign exchange 12 - GDP Faces a
number of challenges safari and coastal
tourism - western markets - leakages,
and - climate change. A leading economic
sector in the achievement of Vision 2030 and
attainment of the MDGs.
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Climate change in Kenya
Kenyas climate varies considerably

• Geography
• substantial arid
• semi-arid area
• coastal tourism resources
• unique biodiversity
• natural heritage
• largely depends on natural resources

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Impacts on Kenya
More frequent and severe floods
Recent El Niño (1997/98) and La Niña (1999/2000)
episodes were the most severe in 50 years
the 1999 and 2000 droughts costed 2.4 of GDP

• Kenyas famine cycles have reduced from -
• 20 years (1964-1984)
• to 12 years (1984-1996)
• to two years (2004-2006)
• to yearly 2007/2008/2009)

• Declines in annual rainfall

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• Rising temperatures

• Average annual temperatures increased by 1C
  (15 rise)
• between 1960 and 2003

glaciers on Mount Kenya - disappearing, leading
to the drying up of some river streams.
82 of the icecap on mountain Kilimanjaro is gone
projected to vanish in 15 years

• Rising sea levels

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Ability to cope compounded by

• Poverty
• weak institutions
• poor infrastructure
• lack of information
• poor access to financial resources
• Low management capabilities
• armed conflicts
• high interest rates

The destruction of ecosystems essential for the
survival of wildlife would be a great loss not
only to Africa, but to the planet.
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METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS
Vulnerability and adaptation assessment
An assessment of vulnerability and adaptation is
crucial in responding to the changing climate.
Efforts are still preliminary
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Methods of vulnerability assessment
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Lacks

• Persistence
• Timing
• Likelihood
• Adaptation
• Future

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Methodologies of vulnerability assessment
The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations
The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change
Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies
Require a lot of data input
Methodologies and theories - limited and mostly
address demand side
Most emphases temperature
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New methodology should be Bottom - up
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New Methodology for tourism vulnerability
assessment to climate change
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New Conceptual model for assessment of tourism
vulnerability to climate change
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Conclusion
The proposed conceptual model and methodology are
intended to help destination managers and other
stakeholders assess in a systematic and
structured way the vulnerability of their
destinations to climate change, and to identify
feasible adaptation options.
A tourism industry that anticipates potential
changes is less affected by these changes (less
vulnerable), has more possibilities to recover
from external and internal shocks (more
resilient), has more possibilities to take
advantage of the new conditions and is more
likely to be successful in the current era of
rapid change.
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THANK YOU