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Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments in China

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Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments in China Wei Xiong, Yue Lin, Erda Lin, et al. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments in China


1
Vulnerability and Adaptation assessments in China
  • Wei Xiong, Yue Lin, Erda Lin, et al.
  • Institute of Environment and Sustainable
    Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of
    Agricultural Sciences, MOA

2
OUTLINE
  • Background
  • Methods, tools, and corresponding VA researches
    in China
  • Challenges we faced and the way forward

3
BACKGROUND
NCCCC (National Coordination Committee on Climate
Change)
NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission)
MFPRC (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China)
MOA (Ministry of Agriculture of China)
MOF (Ministry of Finance of China)
MOST (Ministry of Science and Technology of China)
The NCCCC (National Coordination Committee on
Climate Change) in charges of the issues of
climate change, the climate change relevant
researches or projects were mainly funded by
Ministry Of Sciences and Technology (MOST).
ZHB (State of Environmental Protection
Administration)
CMA (China Meteorological Administration)
12 Ministry members
..
Belong to
Fund
Research organizations
4
BACKGROUND
  • China began to assess the impacts of and
    vulnerability and adaptation to climate change
    since 1990s. the studies were concentrated on
    the four areas closely related to the economy,
    namely, water resources, agriculture, terrestrial
    ecosystems, and the coastal zones.

5
Background International and national
cooperation is needed to resolve the problem
caused by climate change
The attendants from national and local
Government and institutes take part in the
Climate scenarios training which hold in Huang
mountain.
Experts and policy makers from Canada, UK, USA,
China take part in the climate change capacity
building conference which hold in Lijiang, YunNan
6
Methods and tools
Classification
  • Methods

The sensitivity of sectors to climate change
Climate change scenarios
Adaptation measures or Adaptation potential
capacity
The vulnerability of sectors to climate change
Models or other ways
The impacts of Climate change
The integrated Assessment of sectors to Climate
change
7
Methods and tools
  • Tools

1. Observation, Sensitivity practical
experiments, and Analogy, etc.
8
Tools
  • 2. Indices and GIS

9
Tools
  • 3. Statistical Models and Experts Estimation

10
Tools
  • 4. Process-based Models

Using models to assess the impacts of climate
change and adaptation. 3 stages of simulations
11
  • Static GCMs, combining with stochastic weather
    generator, process model to simulate the impacts
    of climate change
  • .

Abies squamata
Picea crassifolia
Quercus Acutissima
12
  • Transient General Circulation Models (GCMs)
    with different CO2 emission scenario by
    stochastic weather generator to assess the
    impacts of climate change (Xiong W, Tao F.L, Xu
    Y.L, AMI, CAAS, 2001)

Inundated areas under 15cm sea level rise
scenario
Inundated areas under 30 cm sea level rise
scenario
Inundated areas under 65cm sea level rise scenario
Inundated areas under 100cm sea level rise
scenario
13
  • Regional Climate Model (RCM) PRECIS
    and Model were used to assess the impacts and
    adaptation under IPCC SRES scenarios
    (AMI,CAAS,2003).

14
Combination of models tools and indicators tools
Classification of the sensitivity of wheat to
climate change (Yang X., 2003)
Highly positive
Moderately positive
Slightly positive
Not sensitive
Slightly negative
Moderately negative
Highly negative
Sensitivity
Yield increase gt30
Yield increase 1530
Yield increase 515
Yield reduction 5yield increase 5
Yield reduction 515
Yield reduction 1530
Yield reduction gt30
Yield change rate
Vulnerability value yield change rate water
availability factor GDP factor population
factor other factors
Classification of the vulnerability of wheat to
climate change
Vulnerability Highly vulnerable Moderately vulnerable Slightly vulnerable Not vulnerable
Yield change rate Yield reduction gt20 Yield reduction 1020 Yield reduction lt10 No yield reduction
15
Distribution of the vulnerability of rain-fed (A)
and irrigated wheat (B) in China
16
Tools
Tools
Research on costs and economic consequences
of changed climate on agriculture (Zhang H. X,
1998, AMI, CAAS) Research on Climate Change,
Grain Price And International Trade Data
analysis method (Chen Y, 2002, CASS)
Research of climate change on the economy
Economic Input-output model, in combination with
assumption of climate change (Zhange Y. Q, et
al., 2001, NJU) Using Mathematical models to
assess the costs of climate policy and adaptation
options (Wang S. et al., 2002, Tisnghua
University, Zou J, Peoples University).
  • 5. Economic Models

17
Assessment on other sectors The simulation of
over- ground biomass and livestock weight under
climate change scenarios (Li B., CAAS, 1997)
The over-ground biomass will increase by 13.3
and 23.1 under GFDL and UKMOH climate change
scenarios respectively, the livestock weight will
also increase by 4.7 and 5.2 under these two
scenarios. While the values decrease by 3 for
over-ground biomass and by 8.8 for livestock
weight under MPI climate change scenarios.
18
Assessment on other sectors Natural vulnerable
Ecosystem (CRAES, IGSNRR. CAS)
  • Models (e.g. IMAGE, Holdridge, GREEN) was used to
    conclude what impacts would emerge on natural
    ecosystem (e.g. Forest, Grassland, Tibet, Lake,
    wetland, etc.) under different climate change
    scenarios.

Mangrove ecosystem, CRAES
IGSNRR, CAS, 1998
Yan C.R., 2004,CAAS, CAS
Coral ecosystem, HAU
19
  • Integrated assessment The Climate Change,
    Rice Pest (Chilo suppre-ssalis), and Rice
    production in China
  • used the three GCMs scenarios (HadCM2, ECHAM4,
    MaxPI), CERES-Rice crop model, CSW (Chilo
    Suppresa Lias Walker) to assess the rice
    production under different climate scenarios and
    different pest population scenarios (Bejing,
    2000, AMI,CAAS).

Global Warming
Chilo suppre-ssalis
Rice
The number of pest generation will increase under
climate change, combing with the higher
temperature will decrease the rice yield to
825.
20
  • Integrated assessment Climate Change, the
    Agricultural Water Cycle and Agricultural
    Production in China (Tao F.L. Yokozawa,M.et al,
    2002, AMI, CAAS, and National Institute for
    Agro-Environmental Sciences, Japan)

Water is the most critical resource for Chinese
agricultural ecosystems
Crop yield based estimates suggest some
production increases are possible because of
warming and CO2 enrichment. But expected moisture
deficit indicate that there are serious threats
to the stability and adaptability of Chinas food
production system to climatic change.
So the change of agricultural water resources
associated with climate change and their
implications with agricultural production are of
concern.
21
Integrated assessment Socio-Economy scenarios
study on Climate Change impacts in China (Yao Yu
Fang, Jiang Jinhe, 2003, IQTE(Institute of
Quantitative and Technical Economics), CASS
(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences))
  • Future primary energy demand will still be
    coal-based, but the proportion of new energy
    sources, including hydro-electricity and nuclear
    power, will increase constantly .
  • Future arable land area will decrease, bringing
    challenges to grain supply in China where the
    population increases, urbanization, economic
    development, as well as the ecological
    environment.
  • So, despite taking into account the impacts of
    technological advancements on increases in grain
    yield, grain yield will increase between
    2000-2080, but the increasing speed will be lower
    than over past 50 years. A gap between grain
    supply and demand will begin to emerge from 2010,
    and around 2040 will see the widest, which will
    reach around 77 million tons and account for
    about 11.7 of the total amount of grain demand

22
Integrated assessment land use change under
climate change in China (He Chunyang, Key
Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural
Disaster, Beijing Normal University)
  • SLUD (Scenarios Land Use Dynamics) model was to
    use the predict land use change under different
    climate change scenarios.

Land use change in next 50 years
23
Challenges, the way forward
  • Models calibration and validation
  • Assessment of extreme events
  • Uncertainties
  • Natural and social dimension
  • Quantitative analysis of adaptation and
    vulnerability

24
Challenges and solutions
  • 1. Models calibration and validation
  • Most of the VA assessment models were
    introduced from developed counties, these models
    possibly unfit for Chinese environments.
    Therefore, the models calibration and validation
    are desperately required, but this work didnt be
    implemented well in China.

Provide standard models calibration and
validation manuals or methods to reduce the
models uncertainties. Propose quantitative
criteria for CV of models
25
Challenges
  • 2. Assessment of Extreme events and climate
    disasters

is more impacted by extreme events, rather than
by the mean climate change. There is no effective
methods, or tools to address this problem.
RCM shows the capacity of projecting extreme
events, but by so far, there are litter available
methods or models for developing counties to
carry out this assessment.
26
Challenges
  • 3. Uncertainties
  • Scenarios climate change and social-economical
    scenarios. Run lots of scenarios
  • Models, e.g. CO2 fertilization effect
  • Human dimension agricultural policy,
    international trade, price, technology
    improvement, etc.
  • Other uncertainties, e.g. scale, data processing,
    etc.
  • How many uncertainties to each parts?

27
Challenges
  • 4. Natural and social dimension
  • How much change was caused by climate change, how
    much was caused by human activities.
  • How to integrate the human dimension factors into
    VA assessment, particular to adaptation
    assessment.

28
Challenges
  • 5. Practical adaptations and quantitative
    analysis
  • adaptation measures are qualitative and not
    operable. (adaptation measures just include
    developing water-conservation agriculture,
    cultivating disease- and pest-resistant
    varieties, etc. even in IPCC reports)
  • lack the performance analysis and cost-benefit
    analysis.
  • Adaptation options didnt identify to local
    circumstance.

29
The way forward
  • Integrated assessment
  • VA assessment and regional sustainable
    development
  • VA assessment combining with the mitigation of
    greenhouse gases
  • International cooperation

30
Thanks
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