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Reshaping Economic Geography in East Asia

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Reshaping Economic Geography in East Asia An EAP Companion Volume to the 2009 WDR (Thailand Presentation) Structure of the Volume Section I Context and Concepts ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Reshaping Economic Geography in East Asia


1
Reshaping Economic Geography in East Asia
  • An EAP Companion Volume to the 2009 WDR
  • (Thailand Presentation)

2
Structure of the Volume
  • Section I Context and Concepts chapters on
    regional context and illustrations of concepts of
    density, distance and division
  • Section II Southeast Asia chapters on Vietnam,
    Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand
  • Section III Northeast Asia chapters on China
    and South Korea

3
Key Messages Regional Context
  • East Asias impressive performance can be
    understood and was shaped by the dynamics of
    spatial economics.
  • The rise of regional production sharing networks
    benefited from agglomeration economies, lower
    transport costs and specialization which in turn
    led to increased spatial concentration of
    activities across countries.
  • This process fostered convergence of incomes
    across countries relative to Japan. Some
    countries prospered more (Singapore,
    China,Thailand, Vietnam) but others less so
    (Philippines, Indonesia).

4
Key Messages at Country Level
  • Better connectivity between markets competitive
    pressures globalization greater spatial
    concentration of production and rapid
    urbanization.
  • Countrys stage of development strategic
    approaches agglomeration effects shapes
    growth outcomes
  • However, all countries experienced increasing
    spatial disparities in income and welfare
    indicators some of which could be viewed as
    good and some as bad depending on the
    underlying causes.

5
Key Indicators
  GNI pc, 2006 GDP growth GDP growth Urban Population Urban Population Urban Population Theil Index Theil Index
  Theil Index Theil Index
    1960-80 1981-06 1960 1980 2006 1990 2002
Lao PDR 1740 .. 5.9 8 12 21 20 23
Vietnam 2310 .. 6.8 15 19 27 22 25
Indonesia 3310 6.0 5.3 15 22 49 21 24
Philippines 3430 5.4 2.9 30 38 63 30 37
Thailand 7440 7.5 6.0 20 27 33 39 34
China 4660 5.5 9.9 16 20 41 21 36
S. Korea 22990 7.8 6.8 28 57 81 17 17
6
Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand
  • Many similarities GDP growth 3-6 over past
    quarter century, Philippines low end, Thailand at
    high end.
  • Dominated economically by their capitals
    Jakarta, Manila and Bangkok spurred on by
    globalization and concentration of activities in
    cities
  • Wide spatial variations in socio-economic
    activities, resource endowments, and
    population/ethnic settlements.
  • Agglomeration benefits varied over time and less
    well defined, especially in the Philippines
    Indonesia the two largest archipelagic
    economies but stronger in Thailand.

7
Thailand Story
  • Relative to other Southeast Asian countries,
    Thailand has done well.
  • Growth has been impressive despite periodic
    setbacks by taking advantage of globalization
    and realizing the agglomeration benefits from
    economic concentration.
  • But concerns about increasing regional and
    rural-urban disparities has affected the social
    fabric of society and complicated policy-making.
  • Challenge is to address these concerns over
    disparities in ways which will not negate the
    growth momentum that has been achieved.

8
Drawing Lessons from the WDR
  • Growth is inherently unbalanced and success may
    lead to extensive periods of rising disparities,
    especially in the spatial concentration of
    production and income.
  • But with domestic economic integration, spill
    over effects and labor migration, these spatial
    differentials in incomes are likely to moderate
    but this may take a long time.
  • If institutions can be strengthened to provide
    more equal access to basic social services and
    spatial integration encouraged where warranted
    (e.g. GMS initiative) with connective
    infrastructure, disparities can be reduced sooner
    rather than later.

9
GDP p.c. in Thailand, by Region 19902005
10
Regional Share of GDP in Thailand, 19902005
11
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12
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13
Proportion of the Poor People in Thailand, by
Region, 19902004
14
Gini Coefficient and Economic Growth in Thailand,
19812005
15
Provincial Disparities Human Development Indexes
in East Asia
16
Coefficient of Variation in Provincial per Capita
Revenues Before and After Transfers
17
Allocation of the Government Budget in Thailand,
by Region, 200306
18
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19
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20
China GDP growth 1981-2006
21
China - Rising Spatial Disparities
22
China- Central Transfers and GDP per capita, by
province, 2004
23
Korea - Structure of Production
Sector 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
1.Agriculture 39.9 31.1 14.6 9 4.6 3.4
2.Industry 18.6 28.4 41.4 44.7 42.8 40.4
Mining 2.3 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.4
Manufacturing 12.1 19.1 29.6 28.9 31.5 28.8
Construction 3.5 6.4 8.2 13.2 8.2 9
Utilities 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.2
3.Services 41.5 40.5 44 46.3 52.6 56.2
Total(GDP) 100 100 100 100 100 100
24
Korea - Regional Share of Population
Region 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Capital 28.30 35.50 42.80 46.30 48.20
Seoul 17.60 22.30 24.40 21.40 20.80
Incheon 2.50 3.30 4.40 5.40 5.40
Kyunggi 8.20 9.90 13.90 19.50 22.00
Middle 19.70 16.50 13.90 13.40 13.20
South East 30.40 30.50 28.90 27.90 26.80
South West 21.60 17.40 14.40 12.50 11.70
25
Korea Per capita GRDP by Region
26
Lessons - Outcomes
  • Consistent with WDR 2009, East Asias experiences
    confirm that rising density, falling distances
    and dissipating divisions are prerequisites for
    success.
  • As countries go from low to high income, spatial
    factors reshape their pattern of growth and
    development.
  • Growth is unbalanced and spreading it prematurely
    may jeopardize progress. People and production
    are concentrated in some places and not in
    others. Migration can influence the pace of
    convergence but living standards will converge
    much sooner than incomes.
  • Meanwhile, spatial disparities can be extreme and
    sometime even more so with rapid growth if fiscal
    redistributive systems are weak and the country
    is not spatially well integrated.
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