ESC 305.01 Global Climate Change Chapter 6.5 Effects on Human Settlement - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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ESC 305.01 Global Climate Change Chapter 6.5 Effects on Human Settlement


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Title: ESC 305.01 Global Climate Change Chapter 6.5 Effects on Human Settlement

ESC 305.01 Global Climate Change Chapter 6.5
Effects on Human Settlement Infrastructure
  • The insurance business is the first in line to
    be affected by climate change ....... it could
    bankrupt the industry.
  • Franklin Nutter, President of the Reinsurance
    Association of America

  • Climate change will have wide-ranging impacts on
    society and the infrastructure that supports
  • In addition to agriculture, food supplies, and
    human health, global warming could impact
    patterns of
  • human settlement
  • energy use
  • transportation
  • industry
  • environmental quality
  • other aspects of infrastructure that affect or
    quality of life (IPCC, 1990).
  • Numerous examples from history illustrate how the
    success of civilization and human welfare is
    intimately linked to climate (Gore, 1993).

  • Fossil-fuel use will affect future climate.
  • Fossil fuels supply energy, either directly as
    fuel or indirectly as generated electricity, for
  • Manufacturing
  • Agriculture
  • Transportation
  • Heating
  • Future GHG emissions and resultant climate change
    will depend largely on future rates of
    fossil-fuel consumption.
  • Many complex and interacting factors determine
    the consumption rate of fossil-fuels.

  • Demand is a result of
  • Population growth rate
  • Availability of fossil-fuel
  • Energy efficiency
  • Conservation measures
  • Use of non-fossil energy sources
  • General industrial productivity
  • Energy policy
  • All of these factors will affect the rates of
    utilization of fossil-fuels and eventually the
    future climate.

  • Future climate, in turn, will affect fossil-fuel
  • As climate changes, patterns of energy use will
  • Humans living in cold climates require large
    quantities of energy for heating of residential
    and commercial buildings.
  • These requirements will decrease in response to
    warmer winters.
  • In warm climates, energy is required for air
  • In arid areas, irrigated agriculture requires
    energy for pumping water.
  • Energy demand for these activities could

  • The impacts of climate change on human settlement
    patterns and infrastructure will differ
    regionally and could range from insignificant to
  • The costs of mitigating these effects will vary
    greatly, but are likely to be felt most by
    developing countries.
  • There exists important links between
  • Global climate
  • Extreme climate events
  • Energy use
  • Environmental quality
  • Human settlement patterns
  • Transportation industrial infrastructure

ENERGY The effects of energy use on climate
  • UNFCCC 2002 calls for
  • stabilization of GHG concentrations in the
    atmosphere at a level that would prevent
    dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
    climate system
  • Can we achieve this goal ?
  • The actual level at which atmospheric CO2
    stabilization is achieved will depend on the
    product of several factors (Hoffert et al., 1998)

ENERGY The effects of energy use on climate
  • CO2 emitted from fossil-fuel combustion
  • Population
  • GDP Gross domestic product
  • Energy intensity
  • Carbon intensity
  • The level of atmospheric CO2 stabilization that
    can be achieved in this century will depend on
    all these factors (Hoffert et al., 1998).

ENERGY The effects of energy use on climate
  • Improvement in energy efficiency alone will not
    be sufficient to stabilize CO2 at reasonable
    target values.
  • Meeting CO2 stabilization goals will require a
    simultaneous decrease in carbon fuels as a
    proportion of total energy.
  • New carbon-free sources of energy will be rquired
    to decrease carbon intensity (Hoffert et al.,
  • Energy production and consumption must take a
    rapid transition to a largely carbon-free global

ENERGY The effects of energy use on climate
  • Fossil fuel carbon emissions scenarios in the 21.
    century IPCC IS92a Stabilization senarios,
    Business as usual scenario C emissions continue
    to grow and the proportion from coal increases.
  • Stabilization of CO2 at 450 ppmv will require a
    complete phase-out of coal by 2050.

ENERGY The effects of climate change on energy
supply and demand
  • Population and economic growth will lead to
    future increase in energy demand in most
    countries, but the impacts of climate change on
    supply and demand will vary greatly by region.
    For example
  • In UK and Russia, a 2 to 2.2C warming by 2050
    will decrease winter space-heating needs, thus,
    decreasing fossil-fuel demand by 1 to 3 (Moreno
    and Skea, 1996).
  • By 2050 in the Southern US, summertime electrical
    demand will greatly increase because of
    air-conditioning demands.

ENERGY The effects of climate change on energy
supply and demand
  • Electrical generation must meet average demands,
    but it must also be sufficient to meet peek
  • Model studies, assuming a 3 to 5C increase in
    average US temperature by 2055, suggest that
    electrical demand and fuel costs will increase
    significantly because of climate change (Linder,
  • The cost of increasing electrical capacity to
    meet the increased demand due to climate change
    will be large.

ENERGY The effects of climate change on energy
supply and demand
  • An increase in electrical demand (much of it
    generated by fossil-fuel combustion) would make
    policies that limit GHG emissions more difficult
    to achieve.
  • With increased demand, the need to import power
    could affect the balance of payments of a
    countrys foreign trade.
  • Due to its effects on runoff and stream flows,
    climate change will also affect hydroelectric
    power generation. Climate change will also affect
    biomass energy.

  • Global warming will add to environmental quality
    and resource depletion problems
  • Reduced amount of precipitation ? Brush forest
  • Energy demand ? Additional power capacity
    requirement ? Decreased air quality ? Additional
    SO2, NOX, PM emissions
  • Energy demand ? Water demand (power plant
  • Energy demand ? Resource depletion of
    non-renewable fuels (natural gas)
  • Energy demand ? Increased land use for new power

  • Summertime photochemical smog (NOx and
    tropospheric ozone)
  • Negative effects of acid rain ozone on forests

  • Climate model projections for the 21. century
  • more extreme high temperatures,
  • fewer extreme low temperatures,
  • a reduced diurnal temperature range,
  • increased intensity of precipitation events,
  • reductions in soil moisture.
  • Changes in the frequency and of occurrence and
    intensity of temperature and precipitation
    extremes can be important than changing long-term
    averages. During the 20. century, the incidence
    of climate extremes changed significantly
    (Easterling et al., 2000).

  • Natural systems are vulnerable to increases in
    climate extremes and the occurrence of climatic
    disturbances ? Development or life cycle of
    numerous organisms
  • Some climate models suggest that a warmer
    atmosphere and ocean will add momentum to the
    sea-air exchange of energy, thus, increase the
    frequency of trophical cyclones, thunderstorms,
    tornadoes, hailstorms, droughts and wildfires ?
    Economic impacts in areas like the Caribbean.
  • Some models suggest an increase in the intensity
    of El Nino events, some do not !

  • Heavy precipitation events can cause flooding,
    erosion, and mudslides in mountain regions.
  • According to model predictions, for many
    temperate countries, heavy summer precipitation
    events will increase by about 20 during this
    century-nearly four times the average overall
    precipitation increase (Groisman et al., 1999).
  • Increased precipitation and runoff in some
    regions will lead to an increased frequency
    and/or intensity of flooding with consequent
    economic costs.
  • Extreme climate events could significantly
    increase property insurance costs (Baker, 2002).

  • Climate change will alter regional agricultural
    and industrial potential and could trigger
    large-scale migrations and redistributions of
  • Such population displacements can result in
  • serious economic disruptions,
  • negative health impacts,
  • Increased human suffering (similiar to the mass
    movement of war-related refugess).
  • Living patterns and technologies of particular
    populations have evolved to cope with occasional
    storms or disasters or slow natural climate
    change, not with rapid climate change.

  • According to most scenarios, climate change will
    place added demands on urban infrastructures ?
    Accelerate urbanization (migration)
  • Inhabitants will need to migrate to mainland
    interior areas to escape flooding ? Migrating
    populations would create infrastructure problems
    for regions suddenly facing so large numbers of
  • Additional infrastructure ? more housing, medical
    facilities, other essential urban services.

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  • Industrial or agricultural relocations in
    response to climate change will require
    additional investments in transportation ? from
    new highways or rail links to new shipping ports.
  • Increase in precipitation ? landslides road
    errosion ? higher maintenance costs
  • Threatening of long-distance power and pipelines
    due to landslides and slope instability
  • Melting of permafrost in arctic regions

  • Effect of climate on ship transport navigation
    on rivers.
  • The growing number of automobiles in the world
    will greatly add to GHG emissions unless
    transportation alternatives are soon adopted.
  • The average car emits 50-80 tons of CO2 over its
    full life.
  • Impacts on GHG emissions and resulting climate
    change individual choices government policies

  • Energy-intensive industries, such as steel,
    aluminum, and cement production will be
    negatively impacted by climate changes that
    reduce power production or increase the cost of
  • Agro-industry in developed countries requires
    large amounts of power and is sensitive to the
    supply and cost of energy.
  • Many less developed countries, heavily dependent
    on subsistence food and fiber production, are
    particularly vulnerable to climate change.

  • Tourism, important to the economies of many
    countries, will be impacted by climate change
    (Viner and Agnew, 1999).
  • Tourism impacts ? more freuqent periods of
    extreme heat loss of beaches reefs
  • Climate change present new opportunities for some
    industries ? Stabilization of climate,
    development of new-carbon-free and low impact
    energy technologies.
  • Manufacturers of solar energy systems, fuel
    cells, wind generators, biogas plants

  • The relative impact of climate change will on
    human infrastructure will vary by region.
  • Developing countries have less ability to adapt
    technologically to climate change in comparison
    to developed countries.
  • Developing countries are very much dependent on
    agriculture, forestry, fishery.
  • Urban Heat Island Effect Because of pavement
    cover, buildings and air pollution
  • In cities like Shangai (China), temperatures of
    5C or more greater can be experienced than the
    surrounding countryside.

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