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Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis

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Ozone and PM Analysis Progress Report for the Cooperative Agreement CX 825834 with EPA OAQPS, Year 1, 5/98 - 5/99 Prepared by: Rudolf B. Husar, PI – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis


1
Ozone and PM Analysis
Progress Report for the Cooperative Agreement CX
825834 with EPA OAQPS, Year 1, 5/98 - 5/99
Prepared by Rudolf B. Husar, PI Bret
Schichtel Stefan Falke Janja Husar Submitted in
June, 1999
  • Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend
    Analysis
  • Washington University, St. Louis, MO
  • http//capita.wustl.edu/CAPITA/CapitaReports/Capit
    aActivities98-99/CAPITAActivities_98_99/

2
Introduction
  • This is a Progress Report for year 01 of the
    three year Cooperative Agreement (CX 825834-01,
    5/01/1998-4/30/2001, 300K/yr).
  • The Coop is on Ozone and PM Air Quality Analysis
    in Support of Public Needs
  • This Report will be presented verbally at EPA to
    the Project Officer and other interested parties
    in September 1999. A web version of this
    presentation can be found at http//capita.wustl.e
    du/CAPITA/CapitaReports/CapitaActivities98-99/CAPI
    TAActivities_98_99/
  • This Progress Report has three major sections
  • PM and Ozone Data Analysis
  • Infrastructure in Support of Air Quality Analysis
  • AQ Analyses in Support of AQ Management
  • More detailed web-based reports on specific
    topics are linked in the body of this Progress
    Report.

3
Contents of Progress Report
  • 1.0 PM and Ozone Data Analysis
  • 1.1 PM2.5 National Maps
  • 1.2 Visibility (PM2.5) trends
  • 1.3 Natural (out of EPA jurisdiction) Events
  • 1.4 US-Canada Ozone Transport
  • 1.5 Planned National Analyses
  • 2.0 Infrastructure in Support of Air Quality
    Analysis
  • 2.1 Air Quality Data Integration and the Living
    Data Inventory
  • 2.2 Air Quality Analysis Tools Methods
  • 2.3 PM2.5 Analysis Website Repository
  • 2.4 PM Analysis Workbook in Support of SIPS
  • 3.0 Air Quality Analyses Management
  • 3.1 AQ Management from Systems Analysis
    Perspective
  • 3.2 National-Local Interaction for Monitoring
    and Assessment
  • 3.3 Interaction among Programs
  • 3.4 Megatrends

4
National PM2.5 Concentration Maps
  • PM2.5 concentration maps are useful for
    understanding the pollutants spatial pattern and
    identifying potential non-attainment areas of the
    PM2.5 NAAQS (annual average of 15 µg/m3 )
  • Monitoring data provide information at specific
    points and are used as input in generating the
    maps
  • The limited number of PM2.5 monitoring data are
    inadequate to generate meaningful maps. National
    PM2.5 maps are generated using an enhanced
    inverse distance squared method that
    incorporates
  • visibility and PM10 surrogate data to aid
    interpolation between PM2.5 monitors
  • mountain and mixing height barriers to prevent
    the spreading of non-representative
    concentrations
  • declustering to minimize biases from monitoring
    site clusters

5
1.1.1 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentrations
(1994-96)
Visibility Aided PM2.5
PM10 Aided PM2.5
120 sites
120 sites
1450 sites
380 sites
  • In both maps, PM2.5 concentrations exceed 15
    µg/m3 in the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast
    Basin of California, in the west, and Pittsburgh,
    St. Louis, Roanoke, and the Washington DC - New
    York City Metropolis.
  • The visibility aided estimates indicate a larger
    region above 15 µg/m3 along the eastern seaboard.
    Additional areas above 15 µg/m3 are shown with
    PM10 aided estimates including Atlanta and
    eastern Tennessee.

6
PM2.5 National Maps - Application
  • EPA Trends Report
  • PM2.5 Criteria Document 2000
  • NAS Report

7
Visibility Trends
  • This is an update of the US visibility trends
    for the period 1980-95. Earlier visibility trend
    reports covered the 1960 - 1992 period.
  • Data from 1996 and 1997 were excluded since
    these data were collected using the automated
    ASOS visibility measuring system.
  • The trend analysis is focused on using the
    summer season (June, July, August), because this
    is the period during which the visibility
    degradation is the worst over most of the US
  • For further information see U.S. Visibility
    Trends, 1960-1992

8
Visibility Trends 1980 - 95
Click on the images to view larger versions
  • In the Eastern US, throughout the 1980-95
    period, the 75th percentile BEXT exceeded 0.15 or
    had an average visibility of less than 10 miles.
  • Most notable are the hazy regions on both sides
    of the Appalachian Mountains where the BEXT
    exceeds 0.2 1/km.
  • Since the early 1980s the BEXT decreased 10-15
    with the largest decreases in the Southern and
    Central regions.

9
Light Extinction Trends of the 75th and 90th
Percentiles
Over the Eastern US, the 75th percentile BEXT
decreased about 8 percent over the 15 years.
The largest decreases occurred in the Southeast
where the BEXT decreased 12 compared to 8 in
the Northeast.
10
Visibility Trends - Applications
  • Report on the Nation's Ecosystems by the Heinz
    Center. A White House initiative to create a
    Report card on the health of our Nations
    ecosystems.
  • EPA National Trends Report
  • PM2.5 Criteria Document 2000

11
Natural Events (Out of EPA Jurisdiction)
  • Dust storms and forest fires are major PM events
    that occur several times a year over different
    parts of the US.
  • Many of these events originate outside the US,
    e.g. dust from Sahara and the Asian desserts and
    smoke from forest fires in Central America and
    Canada.
  • Exceedances of the NAAQS caused by dust and
    smoke events are uncontrollable acts of God.
    Nevertheless, states are required to provide
    evidence that such events (outside their
    jurisdiction) have occurred.
  • For this reason, control agencies need to be
    able to detect and document the impact of such
    events on their control region. The existing
    tools for such documentation are poorly
    developed.
  • The natural PM events are illustrated by two
    extreme examples Asian dust impacting on the
    West Coast and the Central American forest fire
    smoke impacting the Eastern US.

12
Natural Events - Results
Smoke from C. American Forest Fires
SeaWiFS View of the Smoke
GOES 8 View of the Smoke
  • During a ten-day period, May 7-17, 1998, smoke
    from fires in Central America drifted northward
    into USA and Canada.
  • The smoke caused exceedances of the PM standard,
    health alerts, and impairment of air traffic, as
    well as major reductions of visual range.
  • It has been argued that some ozone exceedances in
    the Eastern US may have been due to ozone
    generated by the forest fire smoke.

13
Natural Events - Results
Asian Dust over the West Coast
  • In Vancouver and in Washington State the PM10 and
    PM2.5 concentrations reached 100 an 40 µg
    respectively.
  • Based on public complaints and monitoring data,
    the State of Washington has issued a ban on open
    burning on April 29.

14
Natural Events - Applications
  • Used in the assessment of the requests by States
    for ozone exceedance waivers for smoke generated
    ozone.
  • PM2.5 Criteria Document 2000
  • Public and media information source

15
US-Canada Ozone Transport
  • This is a preliminary analysis for the US-Canada
    Air Quality Agreement.
  • The purpose is to illustrate ozone transport
    across the national boundaries.
  • The analysis methodology included
  • O3 concentration stratified by wind direction
  • O3 concentration stratified by wind speed
  • Transport wind vectors under high and low ozone
    conditions
  • For further information see Ozone Transport Over
    Eastern North America

16
Ozone Transport as a Function of Find Direction
At high wind speeds, gt 6 m/s, higher
concentrations appear at the downwind edges of
the Eastern North American domain
17
Transport on High and Low Ozone Days
On high O3 days, the transport winds are slow
with clockwise circulation around the
south-center of the Eastern US.On low O3 days,
swift transport winds are from outside the
industrial Eastern North America.
Transport winds during high (90-ile) local ozone
days.
Transport winds during low (10-ile) local ozone
days.
18
US-Canada Ozone Transport - Applications
  • Canada/US Air Quality Agreement

19
Planned National PM Analyses
  • PM Spatial and Temporal Pattern Analysis
  • Seasonal
  • Weekly
  • PM Transport Climatology - relate transport to
    ambient concentrations and vice versa.
  • Surface Winds
  • Forward Airmass Histories
  • Backward Airmass Histories

20
Infrastructure in Support of AQ Analysis
  • PM and Ozone Data Analysis
  • PM2.5 National Maps
  • Visibility (PM2.5) trends
  • Natural (out of EPA jurisdiction) Events
  • US-Canada Ozone Transport
  • Planned National Analyses
  • Infrastructure in Support of AQ Analysis
  • Air Quality Data Integration and the Living Data
    Inventory
  • Air Quality Analysis Tools Methods
  • PM2.5 Analysis Website Repository
  • PM Analysis Workbook in Support of SIPS
  • AQ Analyses in Support of AQ Management
  • AQ Management from Systems Analysis Perspective
  • National-Local Interaction for Monitoring and
    Assessment
  • Interaction among Programs
  • Megatrends

21
Air Quality Data Integration and Living Data
Inventory
  • The Problem
  • The researcher cannot get access to the data
  • if he can, he cannot read them
  • if he can read them,
  • he does not know how good they are
  • and if he finds them good
  • he cannot merge them with other data.
  • Information Technology and the Conduct of
    Research
  • The Users view
  • National Academy Press, 1989
  • For further information see Outline of an Open,
    Distributed Air Quality Data Integration and
    Analysis System

22
Data Flow and Processing
23
Infrastructure support for a distributed system
  • Data sharing standards. A set of open standards
    for the sharing of AQ data, tools and reports.
    Examples TCP/IP, HTML, XML, FGDC
  • Data catalog. A virtual centralized catalog with
    search and retrieval facilities. Examples GCMD,
    web-indexes
  • Web-based shared workspace. Place to share
    comments, feedback, plans, ...

24
Benefits of a Distributed and Shared System
  • Access to data. Users can get data, tools,
    reports out of the system for specific projects.
    It can be a forum for the exchange of ideas,
    peer-feedback etc.
  • Saving time and money. The data, tools and other
    resources in the system could be leveraging the
    dollars and time available for specific projects.
  • Recycling Data. Data are costly resource. The
    system can help managing, accessing and
    documenting one's own data, and share it with
    others for re-use.

25
North American Integrated Fine Particle Data Sets
PM2.5 mass and composition data (1979-1997)
consisting of 600 urban and rural monitoring
sites in the US and Canada from 18 networks. Data
sets integrated include IMPROVE, AIRS, NAPS,
CASTNet, and others. See NAM Fine Particle Data
Sets for further information.
o Other
26
North American Integrated Ozone Data Sets
Daily maximum ozone for the entire U.S. (1415
sites) and Canada (167 sites) from 1986 - 1996.
The data set was created by integrating ozone
data from 7 networks including AIRS, NAPS and
CASTNet. This is an update of the OTAG daily
maximum ozone data set.
27
Living Data Inventory - Data Catalog
28
CAPITA Tools Methods for AQ Analysis
  • CAPITA has developed, used and shared a number of
    software tools and data analysis methods to
    facilitate PM data analysis.
  • Data visualization Tools
  • Voyager - a multidimensional data browser
  • Metbrows - A multidimensional Meteorological Data
    browser
  • Movie - animation utility
  • MapEdit - GIS tool
  • Spatial Mapping Tool
  • Distance weighting
  • Krieging
  • Surrogate aided, Declustering Vertical
    Horizontal barriers
  • CAPITA Monte Carlo Model
  • A diagonsitic tool for the simulation and
    investigation of the roles of air pollutant
    emissions, transport and kinetics on the air
    quality.

29
PM2.5 Analysis Workbook in Support of SIPS
  • EPA's Emissions, Monitoring, and Analysis
    Division has initiating a collaborative effort to
    explore relevant analyses of the PM2.5 data to be
    collected by the new National and State
    monitoring networks .
  • The goals of the this collaboration are to foster
    an environment for the sharing of ideas and
    develop a workbook detailing useful analyses of
    the PM2.5 mass and speciated data.
  • The PM Analysis workbook will be used to deliver
    data, tools and methods relevant to State PM data
    analysts as well as serve as a repository for PM
    analysis results and knowledge.
  • The workbook can be found in the Workbook section
    of the PMfine website.

30
PM2.5 Analysis Workbook Outline
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Ensuring High Quality Data
  • 3. Quantifying PM NAAQS Attainment Status
  • 4. Characterizing Ambient PM Concentrations and
    Processes
  • 5. Quantifying Trends in PM and its Precursors
  • 6. Quantifying the Contribution of Important
    Sources to PM Concentrations
  • 7. Evaluating PM and Precursor Emission
    Inventories
  • 8. Identifying and Quantifying the Potential for
    Control Strategies in Helping Attain the Standard
  • 9. Using PM Data to Assess Visibility

31
PM Analysis Website
  • This website is a forum for the free exchange of
    fine particle data and information in support of
    these goals.
  • The virtual community that shares this website
    consists of individuals from the federal EPA,
    regional, state and local air pollution agencies,
    industry and other groups.
  • Documents related to the official regulatory
    process are to be found on the companion EPA
    PM2.5 Data Analysis website.
  • The PM Analysis Website is located at
    http//capita.wustl.edu/PMfine/

32
PM Analysis Website
33
AQ Analyses in Support of AQ Management
  • PM and Ozone Data Analysis
  • PM2.5 National Maps
  • Visibility (PM2.5) trends
  • Natural (out of EPA jurisdiction) Events
  • US-Canada Ozone Transport
  • Planned National Analyses
  • Air Quality Analysis Infrastructure
  • Air Quality Data Integration and the Living Data
    Inventory
  • Air Quality Analysis Tools Methods
  • PM2.5 Analysis Website Repository
  • PM Analysis Workbook in Support of SIPS
  • AQ Analyses in Support of AQ Management
  • AQ Management from Systems Analysis Perspective
  • National-Local Interaction for Monitoring and
    Assessment
  • Interaction among Programs
  • Megatrends

34
AQ Management from Systems Analysis Perspective
  • Following the systems approach, the key AQ
    management steps are
  • Setting of AQ Goals
  • Monitoring and Assessment of Status and Trends
  • Actions to Reduce Exceedances
  • Each management module is well defined
  • Its function is clear
  • Has specific information need
  • The role of the AQ Analyst is to provide AQ
    information to these modules
  • These steps are consistent with the current EPA
    practice (?)

35
Processes, Participants and Methods of AQ
Management
36
Systems Concepts in Support of AQ Management
Support
  • Provides an inclusive framework
  • Identifies the key players/stakeholders and their
    relationship
  • Indicates their information needs and flow pattern

37
Air Quality and Management as a Feedback System
Monitoring (Sensing)
AssessmentDetermine DeviationsPlan
ReductionsTrack Progress
Set Goals CAAA NAAQS
AirQuality
Implementing Reductions(Actions)
38
The Wheel of AQ Management (Adopted from J.
Bachmann)
Establish Goals
Monitor AQ
DetermineReductions
PlanReductions
EvaluateResults
Analysis
Modeling
Implement Reductions
39
National and Local AQ Analysis
  • AQ data analysis needs to be performed at both
    national (global) and local levels
  • The global analysis establishes the large scale
    context
  • Local analysis focuses on the specific and
    detailed local features
  • National-local interaction needs to be mutually
    beneficial

40
Interaction Between National and Local Analysis
41
National-Local Information Sharing
  • The national and local analysts maintain their
    own workspace
  • However, part of the workspace ( data, reports,
    some discussion) can be shared (exposed)
  • Networking can create a common virtual workspace

42
Potential Applications of National-Local
Interaction
  • OAQPS-State Analyst
  • Supersite Program

43
Interaction Among Programs
  • Super sites, NARSTO

44
Megatrends Related to PM2.5
  • From SO2 and TSP to Ozone and Fine Particulates
  • Recent health and environmental effects studies
    implicate ozone and fine particulates as two of
    the most serious current air quality problems in
    North America.
  • From Primary to Secondary Pollutants
  • Ozone as fine particles are not primary (emitted)
    but formed in the atmosphere from complex
    mixtures of precursor gases. There are no direct
    ways of identifying the impact of specific
    sources.
  • From Short Range to Long Range Impact
  • The atmospheric lifetime of O3 and PM2.5 is
    several days, so the winds carries them over
    1,000 km from their source. The result is
    "long-range transport" across state and
    international boundaries.
  • From Command and Control to Weight of Evidence
  • The new AQ management style strives to include
    stakeholders in the policy development
    encourages market-based resource allocations and
    applies 'weight of evidence' - to compliance
    management
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