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Title: Global Climate Change, Vulnerability and Resilience prepared by Leslie Walling Senior Technical Officer Caribbean Natural Resources Institute (CANARI) for the


1
Global Climate Change,Vulnerability and
Resilienceprepared byLeslie WallingSenior
Technical OfficerCaribbean Natural Resources
Institute(CANARI) for the
  • CANARI/PANOS
  • Commonwealth Foundation
  • Georgetown, Guyana, 2nd to 5th October, 2007.

2
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
  1. CANARI
  2. What is Climate Change
  3. Observed Climatic Trends Global Climate Change
    (GCC) projections
  4. Implications of GCC for the Caribbean
  5. Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Caribbean

3
CANARI
  • An independent regional technical non-profit
    organisation registered in St Croix, Saint Lucia
    and Trinidad Tobago
  • Operating in the region for over 20 years
  • Internal governance structure based on a
    Partnership between Board members (Elected
    Partners) and senior staff (Staff Partners)
  • Capacity enhanced by the use of Associates

4
CANARI Vision
  • A socially cohesive Caribbean region with a
    reinvigorated sense of community and collective
    responsibility for its natural and cultural
    assets, forged through equitable participatory
    processes of visioning, decision-making and
    management.
  • Institutions, policy and practice which reflect a
    Caribbean model of development based on
    sustainable use of natural resources to meet the
    livelihood needs and aspirations of Caribbean
    people.   

5
CANARI Mission
  • To promote equitable participation and effective
    collaboration in managing the natural resources
    critical to development.
  • CANARI seeks to achieve its mission through
  • applied and action research on, and analysis,
    monitoring and evaluation of, innovative
    policies, institutions and approaches to
    participation and governance
  • sharing and dissemination of lessons learned,
    including capacity building and
  • fostering partnerships, particularly those that
    build on regional assets and talents and
    contribute to closer regional cooperation.

6
What is Climate?
7
What is Climate?
  • The Average Expected Meteorological Conditions.
  • Over a Specified Period of time (30 years)
  • strong ocean influence
  • High temperatures around 25ºC average
  • Diurnal seasonal temp variation low ? 5ºC
  • Strongly affected by tropical storms.

8
(No Transcript)
9
What is Global Climate Change
10
The Green House Effect
Greenhouses are structures designed to retain
heat.
The heat-trapping ability of a greenhouse is
influenced by a number of factors including the
transparency of the greenhouse cover, colour of
the surfaces inside the greenhouse, and type of
surfaces inside.
11
The Green House Effect
12

                                               
         
The atmospheres energy budget is determined by
net heat flow
 
13
The Green House Effect
The earth's "greenhouse effect" is what makes
this planet suitable for life as we know it.
14
Primary Contributors to the Natural Greenhouse
Effect
10
25
65
15
How Will Our Climate Change?
  • 1990s warmest decade 1998 warmest year on
    record since 1861
  • Over last century temperature rise of 0.60.2C
    Projected increase by 1.4 to 5.8C over period
    1990 to 2100
  • Global sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 metres.
    Without precedent during last 10,000 years, sea
    level projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres
  • Projected rate of warming greater than observed
    changes in 20th Century

16
Observed Temperature Trends
  • Climate Studies Group Mona (CSGM)
  • 1950s to 2000
  • Evidence that temperatures have been changing

17
Projected Temperature Trends
  • Temperature scenarios
  • Statistical downscaling
  • HadCM3 GCM/SERS A2
  • Rising temp trend Trinidad and Tobago Jamaica

18
Sea Surface Temp. Increase
19
Projected Precipitation Trends
  • Simulated decreases up to the middle of the
    century in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles
    in the late rainfall season, but
  • not in the more southern Caribbean islands.

20
Observed Sea Level Rise
  • Church et al, 2004 J. Clim., 17, 2609-2625
  • Analysis of satellite altimeter data combined
    with historical tide gauge over the period 1950
    2000.
  • The best estimate of the rate of global averaged
    sea level rise was 1.8 0.3 mm per year or 0.18m
    per 100year.
  • The rise in the Caribbean appears to be near the
    mean.
  • 1.8 0.3 mm per year or 0.18m per 100year.

21
Projected Sea Level Rise
  • Although the rate of rise is neither constant or
    uniform, sea level in the Caribbean region is
    expected to rise by as much as 5 mm/yr, for next
    100 yrs, as a result of GHG-induced global
    warming.

22
Observed Hurricane trends- North Atlantic
Hurricanes
  • Webster et al., 2005 Science, 309 1844-1846
  • an increasing trend in the frequency and duration
    of North Atlantic hurricane season significant
    at the 99 confidence level.

23
20 Km Japanese model
24
Conclusions about projected climate change for
Caribbean region
  • Sea levels around the islands of the Caribbean
    Sea will probably continue to rise.
  • All Caribbean islands are very likely to warm
    during this century. The warming is likely to be
    somewhat smaller than the global, annual mean
    warming in all seasons.
  • Rainfall in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles
    is likely to decrease in J-J-A but changes
    elsewhere and in D-J-F are uncertain.

25
Climate Change Impacts
26
Conclusions about projected climate change for
Caribbean region
  • Sea levels around the islands of the Caribbean
    Sea will probably continue to rise.
  • All Caribbean islands are very likely to warm
    during this century. The warming is likely to be
    somewhat smaller than the global, annual mean
    warming in all seasons.
  • Rainfall in the vicinity of the Greater Antilles
    is likely to decrease in J-J-A but changes
    elsewhere and in D-J-F are uncertain.

27
Implications of GCC for the Caribbean
  • sea-level rise
  • Increased coastal flooding storm surges
  • Increased coastal erosion
  • Salt water intrusion
  • deterioration in coastal conditions
  • erosion of beaches
  • coral bleaching,
  • fisheries
  • value of these destinations for tourism.
  • reduce water resources
  • unable to meet demand during low rainfall periods
  • human health
  • Agriculture
  • Industry
  • education

28
Implications for the Caribbean
  • Increased hurricane intensity
  • Injury and loss of life
  • Economic disruption
  • Livelihoods affected
  • Damage to homes and infrastructure
  • Food insecurity
  • Increased sanitation and hygiene risks
  • Changes in range of disease carrying vectors
  • E.g. the relationship between Dengue epidemics,
    temperature, rainfall, and El Nino Southern
    Oscillation (ENSO).

29
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Health Weather-related mortality Infectious
diseases Air-quality respiratory illnesses
Agriculture Crop yields Irrigation demands
Climate Changes
Forests Change in forest composition Shift
geographic range of forests Forest health and
productivity
Temperature
Precipitation
Water Resources Changes in water supply Water
quality Increased competition for water
Sea Level Rise
Coastal Areas Erosion of beaches Inundation of
coastal lands Costs to protect coastal communities
Species and Natural Areas Shift in ecological
zones Loss of habitat and species
30
Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean
  • Sea-Level Rise
  • Some of the consequences will be
  • Coastal Land loss, especially on low-lying,
    exposed coasts, low limestone islands and coastal
    plains without effective buffers between sea and
    backshore, e.g. Barbados, Bahamas, Antigua,
    Grenada, Belize, Guyana.
  • ? Loss of coastal infrastructure roads,
    utilities, residential and tourist accommodation,
    social services, etc.

31
Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean
  • Accelerated Beach Erosion
  • ? Higher Water Levels Higher Wave Amplitude
    Increased Wave Energy
  • ? Recent coastal vulnerability assessments for
    Barbados, Guyana and Grenada clearly demonstrate
    that elevated sea level amplifies the rate of
    coastal erosion.
  • ? In Trinidad some beaches are retreating by as
    much as 2.0 m yr-1, where sea level has been
    rising at rate of 8-10 mm yr-1, during the past
    15 years.

32
A Barbados Scenario
  • Assumptions
  • 1. 150 year event, i.e. a category 3 hurricane.
  • 2. Passage coincides with high tide and centre
    passes directly over island.
  • SLR of 40.0 mm relative to 1992 MSL.
  • Result?
  • Initial projection showed that under the above
    scenario, uprush from a 2- metre wave would
    travel at least 80-100 m inland.

33
Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean
  • Storm Surge, Flood Risks and Inundation
  • Flood risks and inundation from storm surge will
    be more severe.
  • ?Even small increases in relative sea level will
    have a disproportionate effect on flood levels.
  • ?By 2080, numbers facing severe floods in the
    Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Ocean regions would
    be 200 times higher than if there were no SLR.
  • ?Cuba 98 coastal settlements with a total
    population exceeding 50 000 persons, which would
    be completely inundated by a 1.0 m rise in
    sea-level.

34
Yellow tuna
Thunnus albacares
35
Dolphin fish
Coryphaena hippurus
36
Yellow tail Ocyurus chrysurus
37
Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean
  • Tourism
  • In Bdos, 95 of tourism infrastructure is within
    0.5. km of the coast.
  • SLR will disrupt the sector through accelerated
    coastal erosion and beach loss, and likely damage
    to physical plant and vital infrastructure.
  • the loss of corals and other marine flora and
    fauna, which support passive, income-generating
    recreation, e.g. the scuba diving industry.
  • Mild temperate winters reduced appeal of islands
    as tourist destinations.

38
Consequences of Climate Change for the Caribbean
  • Human Health Well-being
  • ?Caribbean countries, as elsewhere, exposed to
    various climate-sensitive diseases - vector and
    non-vector-borne, e.g. dengue, malaria, yellow
    fever.
  • ?Short- and long-term threats to human health
  • ? Hurricanes (death and injury increased
    sanitation and hygiene risks) ? Storm surges
    (physical injury)
  • ? Flooding (drowning creation of conditions
    conducive to breeding of insects and other
    vectors)
  • ? Drought (water scarcity reduced agricultural
    and food production risk of malnutrition) .
  • ?

39
What is Vulnerability
40
Baseline Vulnerability
  • small physical size
  • Small populations
  • limited natural resources
  • extreme openness and high sensitivity to external
    shocks
  • high propensity to natural disasters and other
    extreme events
  • high population density
  • poorly developed infrastructure and
  • limited funds, human resources and skills, among
    others.
  • WE ARE VULNERABLE ALREADY!

41
Climate Change RISK
  • Hazard Global Climate Change
  • Probability or frequency Unavoidable
  • Harmful consequences or expected losses
  • of lives,
  • people,
  • injured,
  • property,
  • livelihoods,
  • economic activity disrupted or
  • environment damage

42
Risk and Vulnerability
  • RISK
  • Hazard
  • Risk
  • Consequences
  • VULNERABILITY
  • Exposure
  • Ability to cope
  • Hazards translate into risks and consequently
    disasters only when combined with vulnerable
    elements
  • of human, natural and built systems.

43
Exposure
44
Exposure
45
Caribbean Adaptation
46
Adaptation Entry Points for CSOs
  • For adaptation to GCC to be effective adaptation
    planning, resilience building, and vulnerability
    reduction, and capacity building must take place
    at all levels
  • Adaptation planning and capacity building has
    focused on the government institutions and
    agencies, research CSOs
  • Recent focus on vulnerability assessment of
    economic sectors (tourism, water, agriculture)
  • Capacity building, awareness, education for
    adaptation adaptation planning are required at
    the community level
  • Local level adaptation planning with the
    participation of individuals, communities, and
    stakeholder groups.

47
Adaptation Entry Points for CSOs Recommendations
for Future Action
  • DISASTER RISK REDUCTION front end preparation
  • policy and planning
  • Policy analysis and research (e.g. political
    ecology of adaptation)
  • Stakeholder identification analysis
  • Participatory planning processes
  • Incorporation of traditional knowledge
  • physical preventative measures
  • Adaptive designs retrofitting
  • Natural resources conservation
  • Integrated resources management (INRM)
  • Incorporation of traditional knowledge
  • Reforestation, conservation management
  • physical coping and/or adaptive measures and
  • Vulnerability and risk assessment studies
  • Participatory contingency planning
  • Participatory hazard mapping resilience
    development
  • community capacity building
  • Community level adaptation planning
  • Crop diversification

48
Adaptation Entry Points for CSOs Recommendations
for Future Action
  • Economic capabilities the ability to earn an
    income, to consume and to have assets
  • Community and sectoral risk reduction and
    resilience building
  • Livelihoods diversification
  • Crop diversification
  • Sharing of traditional knowledge best practices
  • Human capabilities based on health, education,
    nutrition, clean water and shelter
  • Research
  • Awareness building and education on Integrated
    Natural Resources Management, adaptation planning
    vulnerability reduction and resilience building
  • Capacity development in planning and
    participatory processes
  • Political capabilities human rights, a voice and
    some influence over public policies
  • Capacity development
  • Participatory planning processes
  • Awareness building education
  • Participation in resource allocation
    decision-making (land use planning food
    security)
  • Advocacy (land use planning food security)
  • Socio-cultural capabilities the ability to
    participate as a valued member of a community
  • Capacity development
  • Participatory planning processes
  • Awareness building education

49
Caribbean Adaptation Recommendations for Future
Action
  • Research and documentation on examples of
    community adaptation in post-disaster
    circumstances.
  • The impact of global climate change on
    sustainable livelihoods strategies and options.
  • Research on the process of building consensus to
    climate change adaptation project and policy
    options.

50
Caribbean Adaptation Recommendations for Future
Action
  • The development of community-level adaptation
    planning processes and best-practices that are
    context specific.
  • The development of the tools and methods that
    create opportunities for participation and
    support the building of consensus that include

51
Caribbean Adaptation Recommendations for Future
Action
  • rigorous stakeholder identification and analysis
  • analysis of the institutional framework including
    the opportunities for participation offered by
    existing policy, legislation and practice
  • resource and livelihood assessments
  • participatory problem analysis and building
    consensus on strategies for addressing the
    problems
  • participatory mapping as a tool for both planning
    and assessment/evaluation.
  • conflict management, including the negotiation of
    trade-offs
  • capacity assessments and capacity building in all
    of the above.

52
STRATEGIC RECOMENDATIONS
  • Mainstream disaster risk reduction/climate change
    vulnerability assessments in the poverty planning
    process.
  • country poverty assessment exercise
  • annexed to report community vulnerability
    assessments to natural hazards and climate
    change.
  • Communities need to be empowered to take better
    care of themselves. Civil Society has a critical
    role to play in
  • "building community resiliency" and
  • "empowering communities with critical skill sets
    for self-disaster risk management/reduction."
  • Financing of climate change adaptation should
    include for the provision of resources for CSOs
    (core funding)
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