Scaling up the coordination and resources for implementation of the SNA Building a Strategic Plan for Uruguay

1

• Scaling up the coordination and resources for
  implementation of the SNA Building a Strategic
  Plan for Uruguay
• Lourdes Erro
• lerro_at_bcu.gub.uy

Meeting on Scaling up the coordination and
resources for the implementation of the SNA.
Luxemburg 28-29 May 2013
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Building a Strategic Plan for Uruguay
1. A strategic plan in the framework of the Regional Plan
2. Strategic Plan for Uruguay
3. What support is required?
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Building a Strategic Plan for Uruguay
1 A Strategic Plan in the framework of the Regional Plan
2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
3. What support is required?

• The Strategic Plan for LAC countries was approved
  in 2009-2010, but it has been facing many
  difficulties
• Situation in LAC countries
• is very unequal
• has special institutional challenges (in 16
  countries NA compilers are Central Banks)
• The Plan is now emphasizing a different strategy
  
• incremental work

? Use pilot countries to expand the experience
to other countries in a second stage
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Building a Strategic Plan for Uruguay
1 A Strategic Plan in the framework of the Regional Plan
2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
3. What support is required?

• Work in the pilot countries design and
  implement a National Action Plan with the support
  of ECLAC
• establish objectives and resources
• determine inter-institutional agreements,
  responsibilities and deadlines
• work hand in hand by ECLAC staff and national
  staff to monitor the Plan
• Spread the experience to others adapt and learn
  from the pilot countries experience (with
  horizontal cooperation and technical assistance)

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan

• Implementation of 1993 SNA released in March
  2009
• 2005 base year
• current and constant annual SUT (intermediate
  consumption matrix, national and foreign origin
  detailed)
• without Institutional Sectors Accounts
• Lack of resources (recent years)
• in supporting economic statistics, mostly
  supplied by NSI
• In NA team by adding the responsibility of
  compiling BOP with no additional resources

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan

• An opportunity (2012)
• Strategic Plan for the Central Bank a strategic
  initiative to improve the scope of NA and to
  adopt international recommendations
• Strategic Regional Plan apply to become a pilot
  country
• Ask for the ROSC (IMF) and for ECLAC support

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan

• Diagnostic (2012) based on recommended tools
  (ECLAC mission and ROSC (IMF)

1. Statistical Requisites auto diagnostic
2. Milestones for the implementation
3. Minimum Requirement Data Set (MRDS) (Minimum,
   Recommended, Desirable)
4. Conceptual Compliance Questionnaire
5. Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF-IMF)

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan

• Conclusions of the Diagnostic

• limited SNA scope (Uruguayan NA dont fulfil
  Minimum Required Data)
• accuracy and reliability problems (mostly due to
  lack of statistical sources)

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan

• What are the main national policy challenges?
• quick knowledge about the impact of the
  international situation, deal with inflation,
  exchange rate policy, fiscal policy
• retain foreign capital when the situation in
  developed countries improves
• open new foreign markets for goods and services
• achieve improvements in infrastructure investment
  (increase productivity and competitiveness)
• improve investment without neglecting the
  environment
• achieve improvements in human capital continue
  to reduce poverty and to improve distribution of
  income
• public sector reform and sustainability of social
  security system

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan

• What are the implications for the scope and
  detail of the accounts and supporting statistics?
• Better short-term statistics (mostly on the
  expenditure side)
• Financial accounts statistics by sectors
• Government accounts
• Distribution of income accounts
• External sector statistics (FDI, Exports of
  Services, etc)
• Capital formation, Employment, Productivity
• Environmental statistics

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan

• In summary, high priority to
• ? Institutional Sector Accounts
• (N/A since 1990)
• ? some improvement on short term
  statistics

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan

• Plan based on 4 pillars
• Strengthen the institutional framework for basic
  statistics (dimension worst evaluated by ROSC)
• Compile a new benchmark base year (jointly for NA
  and BOP) using SUT
• Expand the present NA scope (including
  Institutional Sector Accounts, and at least to
  satisfy all Minimun Required and most of
  Recommended Data)
• Adopt new recommendations in a priority framework

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2 Strategic Plan for Uruguay
2.1 Background
2.2 Diagnostic
2.3 Implementation Plan
Stages of the Plan
Stages Activities Span/Deadline Description
Stage 0 Statistics Sources and Training 2013-2014 29 statistical or software projects
Stage 1 Reference year compilation (SUT, IEA) 2015-2016 Data consistency and arbitrage process. SUT and IEA for the reference year. Harmonization BOP-NA
Stage 2 Annual and quarterly NA series (2012-2018) compilation 2017-2018 SUT and IEA for 2012-2018. Chained volume measures
Stage 3 Release 2019 New web platform for users
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3. What support is required?
3.1 Advocacy and institutional agreements
3.2 Supporting statistics
3.3 The users
3.4 Training, Horizontal Cooperation, Technical Assistance

• There are first order problems and secondary
  problems

First order problems (Fundamental problems long term resolution)
Advocacy
Institutional agreements
Supporting statistics
Commitment of users
Secondary problems (Tools to support the implementation)
Training
Horizontal Cooperation
Technical assistance
Manuals and Handbooks in the appropriate language
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3. What support is required?
3.1 Advocacy and institutional agreements
3.2 Supporting statistics
3.3 The users
3.4 Training, Horizontal Cooperation, Technical Assistance

• to raise political support to the project
• to establish institutional commitments beyond
  individual responsibilities

• ? It is necessary
• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) ECLAC-CBU-NSI
  
• Targets Cooperation agreement Support for NSI
• Agreed
• Inter-institutional Working Groups to improve
  basic statistics (Classifications, Business
  Register, Economic Survey and Construction
  Statistics, already working)
• Following Commission
• Twice a year report to authorities with the
  support of ECLAC

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3. What support is required?
3.1 Advocacy and institutional agreements
3.2 Supporting statistics
3.3 The users
3.4 Training, Horizontal Cooperation, Technical Assistance

• MOU provides political support
• raises awareness among the authorities
• assists on the accountability by monitoring the
  National Plan
• MOU expedites and supports institutional
  agreements
• Facilitates diagnostic and establishment of
  priorities in a cooperatively way
• Promotes joint work Inter-institutional Working
  Groups
• Provides tools for monitoring

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3. What support is required?
3.1 Advocacy and institutional agreement
3.2 Supporting statistics
3.3 The users
3.4 Training, Horizontal Cooperation, Technical Assistance

• In Uruguay it is not possible to improve the
  scope of SNA (let alone the implementation of
  2008 SNA)
• without looking for new basic statistics
• without involving National Statistical Institute
  (NSI)

? International support is necessary to better
involve the National Statistical System in an
integrated statistical approach
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3. What support is required?
3.1 Advocacy and institutional agreement
3.2 Supporting statistics
3.3 The users
3.4 Training, Horizontal Cooperation, Technical Assistance
? Major gaps in information

• On the supply side
• Enterprises register
• Economic Activity Structural Surveys
• Agricultural costs
• Construction activity
• Informal sector
• Cross elements
• Trade margins are outdated (most from 1997)

• On the expenditure side
• Household Expenditure Survey is outdated (2006)
• Gross Capital Formation
• Exports and Imports of Services
• Institutional Sectors
• Companies accounting data from Tax Declaration
  Registry are not available
• It doesnt exist a Central Balance Sheet Data
  Office

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3. What support is required?
3.1 Advocacy and institutional agreement
3.2 Supporting statistics
3.3 The users
3.4 Training, Horizontal Cooperation, Technical Assistance
? Although results only will be visible in the
long run, it is very important to involve users
along this process

• Users often dont ask for NA, as they are not
  aware of its usefulness
• In medium term something can be done to encourage
  this
• Examples
• Organize Seminars to explain NA uses, to allow
  discussions between researchers on suggested
  subjects
• Organize Users Surveys and feedback

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3. What support is required?
3.1 Advocacy and institutional agreement
3.2 Supporting statistics
3.3 The users
3.4 Training, Horizontal Cooperation, Technical Assistance

• Training
• introductory courses for the new team
• advanced courses and international workshops to
  discuss specific topics
• Horizontal Cooperation to learn about procedures
  and practical issues, mainly to compile
  Institutional Sector Accounts
• Technical Assistance mainly for basic statistics
• Manuals and compilation guides in appropriate
  language

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• Scaling up the coordination and resources for
  implementation of the SNA Building a Strategic
  Plan for Uruguay
• Lourdes Erro
• lerro_at_bcu.gub.uy

Meeting on Scaling up the coordination and
resources for the implementation of the SNA.
Luxemburg 28-29 May 2013