Regional Business Review - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


Title: Regional Business Review


1
Regional BusinessReview
  • 3rd Annual Business Dinner
  • James Hardie Dining Room
  • Charles Sturt University
  • Prepared by the
  • Western Research Institute
  • 22nd March 2004

2
Outline
  • Regional Economy
  • National Retail Industry
  • Regional Retail Sector
  • Changes in Central West Retail
  • Key drivers and success factors
  • Retail Outlook
  • General Economic Outlook

3
National and Regional
Australia Central West
Economic Growth 3.5 pa N/a
Unemployment 5.8 5.1
Population Growth 1.2 pa 0.1 pa
Source Australian Bureau of Statistics
4
Sales Performance
  • Source Regional Business Survey sponsored by the
    Central Western Regional Development Board and
    Country Energy

5
Regional Comparison
  • Source Regional Business Survey sponsored by the
    Central Western Regional Development Board and
    Country Energy

6
Sector Comparison
  • Source December quarter Regional Business Survey
    sponsored by the Central Western Regional
    Development Board and Country Energy

7
Significance of Retail
Australia Central West
Value Added 34 billion 325 million
Employment 1.3 million 10,300
Sources ABS and WRI Input Output Table
8
Retail Employment Profile
  • 12 of Australian workforce
  • 60 female
  • 50 of all young people with a job work in retail
  • Two-thirds are casual / part-time
  • 25 of employment flow-on effects captured by
    retail
  • Source Retail Industry Profile prepared by the
    Australian Retailers Association

9
Retail Sales Performance
  • Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
    Reliance Credit Union

10
Regional Comparison
  • Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
    Reliance Credit Union

11
Sector Comparison
  • Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
    Reliance Credit Union

12
Retail Shift Share Analysis
  • Analysed job growth 1996-2001
  • Looking for sectors growing above state
    industry averages
  • Outperforming retail sectors
  • Specialised food 23
  • Furniture houseware 71
  • Other Personal household 46
  • Source Central West Shift-Share Analysis
    commissioned by the Central Western Regional
    Development Board

13
Building Approvals
  • Source Australian Bureau of Statistics

14
Key Industry Drivers
  • Level of consumer confidence
  • Rate of household formation
  • Level changes in interest rates
  • Population growth
  • Economic growth
  • Household disposable income
  • Source IBISWorld

15
Key Success Factors
  • Good product offering
  • Loyal customer base
  • Clear market position
  • Superior after sales service
  • Access to latest technologies
  • Economies of scale
  • Proximity to key markets
  • Source IBISWorld

16
Retail Outlook
  • Retailer expectations slightly lower for March
    quarter of 2004
  • Long run average sales 4
  • MONASH 1.8 in 2004-05
  • Higher AUD increases demand for imported cars,
    electronics, etc
  • Increased competition for market share

17
Growth Outlook
Sector Central West Share Growth in 2004
Primary 21 9.4
Secondary 18 - 0.9
Tertiary 14 3.0
Quaternary 29 3.4
Quinary 6 4.2
Total 3.5
Sources Business Review Weekly State of the
Nation 2004 and WRI Input-Output Table
18
General Economic Outlook
  • Business expectations higher for March quarter of
    2004
  • Rebound in farm production
  • Slowdown in housing market
  • Strong domestic economy
  • AUD forecasts 65.8c to 80c US
  • Possibly higher interest rates
  • Low inflation in RBA 2-3 range
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Regional Business Review

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Regional Business Review 3rd Annual Business Dinner James Hardie Dining Room Charles Sturt University Prepared by the Western Research Institute 22nd March 2004 – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Regional Business Review


1
Regional BusinessReview
  • 3rd Annual Business Dinner
  • James Hardie Dining Room
  • Charles Sturt University
  • Prepared by the
  • Western Research Institute
  • 22nd March 2004

2
Outline
  • Regional Economy
  • National Retail Industry
  • Regional Retail Sector
  • Changes in Central West Retail
  • Key drivers and success factors
  • Retail Outlook
  • General Economic Outlook

3
National and Regional
Australia Central West
Economic Growth 3.5 pa N/a
Unemployment 5.8 5.1
Population Growth 1.2 pa 0.1 pa
Source Australian Bureau of Statistics
4
Sales Performance
  • Source Regional Business Survey sponsored by the
    Central Western Regional Development Board and
    Country Energy

5
Regional Comparison
  • Source Regional Business Survey sponsored by the
    Central Western Regional Development Board and
    Country Energy

6
Sector Comparison
  • Source December quarter Regional Business Survey
    sponsored by the Central Western Regional
    Development Board and Country Energy

7
Significance of Retail
Australia Central West
Value Added 34 billion 325 million
Employment 1.3 million 10,300
Sources ABS and WRI Input Output Table
8
Retail Employment Profile
  • 12 of Australian workforce
  • 60 female
  • 50 of all young people with a job work in retail
  • Two-thirds are casual / part-time
  • 25 of employment flow-on effects captured by
    retail
  • Source Retail Industry Profile prepared by the
    Australian Retailers Association

9
Retail Sales Performance
  • Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
    Reliance Credit Union

10
Regional Comparison
  • Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
    Reliance Credit Union

11
Sector Comparison
  • Source Regional Retail Survey sponsored by
    Reliance Credit Union

12
Retail Shift Share Analysis
  • Analysed job growth 1996-2001
  • Looking for sectors growing above state
    industry averages
  • Outperforming retail sectors
  • Specialised food 23
  • Furniture houseware 71
  • Other Personal household 46
  • Source Central West Shift-Share Analysis
    commissioned by the Central Western Regional
    Development Board

13
Building Approvals
  • Source Australian Bureau of Statistics

14
Key Industry Drivers
  • Level of consumer confidence
  • Rate of household formation
  • Level changes in interest rates
  • Population growth
  • Economic growth
  • Household disposable income
  • Source IBISWorld

15
Key Success Factors
  • Good product offering
  • Loyal customer base
  • Clear market position
  • Superior after sales service
  • Access to latest technologies
  • Economies of scale
  • Proximity to key markets
  • Source IBISWorld

16
Retail Outlook
  • Retailer expectations slightly lower for March
    quarter of 2004
  • Long run average sales 4
  • MONASH 1.8 in 2004-05
  • Higher AUD increases demand for imported cars,
    electronics, etc
  • Increased competition for market share

17
Growth Outlook
Sector Central West Share Growth in 2004
Primary 21 9.4
Secondary 18 - 0.9
Tertiary 14 3.0
Quaternary 29 3.4
Quinary 6 4.2
Total 3.5
Sources Business Review Weekly State of the
Nation 2004 and WRI Input-Output Table
18
General Economic Outlook
  • Business expectations higher for March quarter of
    2004
  • Rebound in farm production
  • Slowdown in housing market
  • Strong domestic economy
  • AUD forecasts 65.8c to 80c US
  • Possibly higher interest rates
  • Low inflation in RBA 2-3 range
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