Climate Security in Africa: Towards a new generation of environmental conflicts? Dennis T

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Climate Security in Africa Towards a new
generation of environmental conflicts?Dennis
Tänzler, Adelphi ResearchPresentation at the
EGMONT, ACTED, CERI and CEAN Conference Climate
Change and Security in Africa 20 January 2009
in Paris
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Overview
1. Climate Security A new generation of
environmental conflicts at the front door? 2.
Climate Security and the importance of converging
trends 3. Key pressures in Africa From human
to (inter)national security? 4. New modes of
governance needed
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1. Climate Security A new generation of
environmental conflicts at the front door?
North Africa Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa,
South Asia and Pacific, Latin America and the
Caribbean (1980-2005)
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1. Climate Security A new generation of
environmental conflicts at the front door?

• Climate Change .
• is a threat multiplier
• will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many
  societies
• reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution
  
• increases number and intensity of conflicts
• leads to new lines of conflict in the
  international arena

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1. Climate Security Future global regional hot
spots
Quelle Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der
Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung (2007)
Climate Change as Security Risk.
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2. Climate Security the importance of
converging trends

• Population dynamics Until 2050 population growth
  will lead to a world population between 8.7 and
  9.3 billion people.
• In regional terms this will be reflected
  particularly in the population dynamics in
  Africa, which is set to grow from 900 million
  (2005) to nearly 2 billion (2050)
• Resource consumption in a long term rise in
  consumption of energy and resources it is
  expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will
  increase by more than 50.
• Urbanisation is advancing By 2030 up to 60 of
  the worlds population could be living in cities.
  The largest growth in city populations nearly
  50 will be in Africa and Asia.
• Result Number of destabilising, mutually
  amplifying factors

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2. Converging trends Risks in key sectors
Water decresing water availability, changes in
precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme
weather events, increasing competition of demand
Agriculture Decreasing agricultural production,
economic decline, more unempoyment, food
shortages, increasing competition of demand
Infrastructure, energy supply and transport
environmental change due to climate change
increases running costs (damages, flooding etc)
or reduces energy production (hydro)
Urbanisation Increasing desaster risks, health
risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums
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3. Key pressures in Africa From human to
(inter)national security?

• Current situation
• Overall Water scarcity, desertification soil
  salinisation
• Poverty, demographic pressure, increasing
  urbanization, economies are highly dependent on
  agriculture
• Large number of violent conflicts and
  post-conflict countries, combined with widespread
  governance insufficiencies
• Trends in Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
• Temperatures are expected to increase by 2C in
  2040, leading to a reduction in available water
  resources of 20- 30
• 2025 Per capita water availability region is
  expected to decrease to a little more than 500m³
  due to population growth and economic use
• Security trend negative consequences for
  water-intensive agriculture, higher unemployment,
  coastal areas at risk, dependence on food imports
  likely to increase, water and food conflicts?

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3. Key pressures in Africa From human to
(inter)national security?

• Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa
• Regional increase in temperature will be higher
  in Africa than the global mean in some cases up
  to 50
• An additional 250-550 million people could be
  affected by hunger if there is a temperature
  increase of 3C it is likely that, by 2050, 75
  of all undernourished people will be concentrated
  in Africa
• In some countries agricultural yields could
  decline by more than 50 by 2020 and incomes by
  more than 90 by 2100
• Six of the ten largest African cities are located
  near coasts. In West Africa, a roughly 500 km
  long metropolitan belt is developing between
  Accra and the Niger Delta, which will be highly
  vulnerable in the face of any rise in sea level
• Security trend Drought, famines and flooding as
  major drivers of migration and further regional
  destabilization gtgt worst case transcontinental
  belt consisting of reinforcing fragile states

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4. New modes of governance needed

• Reduce global GHG emission to limit the risks of
  climate change Build a Post-2012 agreement incl.
  a comprehensive adaptation framework
• Increase dialogue between partner countries to
  develop - conflict sensitive - adaptation
  strategies (as many will be implemented in
  conflictive environments)
• Set regional priorities in the field of
  adaptation to address the specific needs in
  fragile states and states in conflict and
  post-conflict situations
• Bilateral or as part of EU regional approaches
  (Niger delta, Sahel belt, Nil basin, Horn of
  Africa, East Africa)
• Improve regional and local capacities for early
  warning early action To this end
  systematically integrate climate vulnerability
  data into existing early warning systems
• Support regional arrangements for coordination
  and cooperation such as transboundary water
  institutions in different fragile regions in
  Africa

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• Thank you very much!
• More information at www.ecc-platform.org