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A risk management approach to climate change adaptation

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A risk management approach to climate change adaptation CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC ECONOMIC STUDIES BUSINESS AND LAW Roger N Jones May 21 2009 * * * * * * * * * Caveats and ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: A risk management approach to climate change adaptation


1
A risk management approach to climate change
adaptation
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC ECONOMIC STUDIES BUSINESS
AND LAW
Roger N Jones May 21 2009
2
Structure of talk
  • Estimating climate risk probabilities
  • Hedging adaptation and mitigation
  • How much climate change do we need to adapt to by
    when?
  • Taking a whole of climate approach

3
Framing climate change risk
4
The likelihood of risk
The probability of exceeding a given level of
change
5
75 cm
50 cm
25 cm
6
(No Transcript)
7
Climate change impacts what are the risks?
  • The post-2000 global growth path
  • Global growth has accelerated in the past decade,
    driven by the developing countries, especially
    China and India
  • This growth is energy and coal intensive, and
    likely to continue
  • Realistic projections of energy use and CO2
    emissions to 2030 are above the SRES marker
    scenarios, including A1FI

8
Implications for GHG emissions and atmospheric
concentrations
  • Minimum emissions paths (MEPs) strong policy
    measures from 2010 to 2030
  • The 2030 MEP resembles the SRES A1B on steroids
  • Current growth to 2100 under reference conditions
    resembles SRES A1FI on steroids
  • STOP PRESS What about the GFC?
  • Sheehan et al., Global Environmental Change 2007

Samples have been taken and referred to the
stewards still awaiting the results
9
Minimum emissions paths 20102030
10
Likelihood of exceedance range of reference and
policy scenarios
11
Framing adaptation
  • Goal setting
  • Where do we want to go? (aspirational goals)
  • How do we want to get there?
  • What are the risks?
  • What are the barriers? (e.g., lack of adaptive
    capacity)

12
Planning horizons
13
Operational pathways and aspirational goals
14
How much climate change needs to be adapted to by
when
  • Types of climate information required
  • Climate variability (daily to decadal)
  • Ongoing rate of change
  • Past and near term commitments to climate change
  • Regional climate change projections
  • Climate sensitivity
  • Greenhouse gas emission policies (Mitigation)

15
Reference and policy scenarios for hedging
adaptation and mitigation
16
Business as usual world (reference)
17
Business as usual world (reference)
18
Climate policy world
19
Climate policy world
20
Hedging adaptation and mitigation reference and
policy scenarios
Mitigation benefits
MIT-AD
AD-MIT
Adaptation benefits
21
Hedging strategies between reference and policy
scenarios with high policy uncertainty
22
Whole of climate approach
  • Links current climate and adaptive responses with
    future possibilities
  • Ongoing variability and extremes are the main
    drivers of current adaptation to climate
  • Links between variability and longer-term change
    give current experiences a future dimension.
  • Long-term fluctuations in natural climate
    variability may be affecting some regions
  • Not all climate change is anthropogenic

23
Whole of climate approach
  • An understanding of the dynamics of climate
    variability is needed to
  • Diagnose fluctuations, shifts or trends as
    temporary, persistent or permanent.
  • If the dynamics of the change are not understood,
    statistical or other methods can be used to
    explore what if questions based on
    understandings of climate model and historical
    behaviour.

24
Regional example of climate changes Melbourne,
Australia
  • The Melbourne Region has experienced many step
    changes rather than trends
  • For a 1 by 1 degree area over greater Melbourne
  • Annual rainfall statistically significant
    downward shift in 1996 in rainfall from just over
    900 mm to 750 mm, -17.
  • Max temp Statistically significant upward step
    change 1998 of 0.6C.
  • About half of this can be explained by the
    decrease in rainfall (due to a decrease in cloud
    cover). About half (0.3C) is added warming
  • Analysis of annual frequency of days gt35C and
    gt40C not significant
  • All days under 30C have become significantly
    warmer
  • During summer (DJF) almost 1C warmer

25
Regional example of impacts south-eastern
Australia
  • Streamflow 60 up to 80 across western
    Victoria, 2560 in eastern Victoria.
  • Extreme fire weather index (temperature, lower
    humidity and higher winds)
  • 100 on Black Friday in 1939,
  • 115 on Ash Wednesday in 1983
  • 150200 on Black Saturday, February 2009
  • Viticulture harvest 46 weeks earlier, crop
    losses, smoke damage
  • Horticulture, dairy under stress in irrigation
    regions
  • Snow reduced snow cover
  • Human health (heat stress) hundreds(?) dead from
    heat stress, 220 from fires, event trauma,
    drought stress in rural regions
  • Environment woodland birds decline, tree
    die-back accelerated, tree planting failures,
    icon wetlands critical, frequent hot fires

26
Source. R. Moran DSE Vic.
27
Source. R. Moran DSE Vic.
28
Future water supply system vulnerability
  • Sensitivity to supply changes (climate, land-use,
    fire)
  • Level of utilisation
  • Demand projections

Current management
Marginal planned change
Substantial change
29
Current water supply system vulnerability
  • Large-scale climate change
  • Competing demands from systems under stress
    (urban, industrial, agriculture, environment)
  • Pressure between managing short-term political
    risk and long-term sustainability

We thought we were here
Management as usual
Managing current vulnerability
Emergency management
30
Sensitivity of mean streamflow to climate change
uncertainties
  • Global warming signal 25
  • Rainfall change (as function of global warming)
    6775
  • Potential evaporation change 10

31
Exploring decision analysis
32
Choosing climate information
  • Understand risk and risk management options how
    is climate information used in decision-making
    for specific risks?
  • What is my planning horizon and operational
    pathway? e.g., up front, incremental, wait and
    see
  • Whats my climate baseline?
  • Choose scenarios based on sensitivity, risk
    tolerance and hedging strategies
  • Determine local scaling and down-scaling needs
    for key climate variables
  • Undertake assessment e.g., modelling, expert
    analysis

33
Explore consequences of decision-making
thresholds and key vulnerabilities
  • Determine critical limits. E.g., sea level rise,
    storm severity or surge protection, flooding,
    public health limits, water quality and supply
  • Diagnose specific climate conditions leading to
    critical limits
  • Establish plausible combinations of change in
    mean and variability, natural and anthropogenic,
    leading to critical thresholds
  • Determine likelihood that such conditions may be
    exceeded within planning horizons. For cities,
    many of these horizons will be long-term

34
Caveats and working principles
  • All probabilities are subjective test different
    plausible assumptions to test whether outcomes
    (decisions on risk management) are sensitive to
    assumptions
  • What information is required to make a specific
    decision? The less important climate is compared
    to other risk factors, the less precision will be
    required
  • A 1C warming in 2030 (from 1990) is as likely as
    not. From 2040, considerable hedging between
    adaptation and mitigation is required. Without
    solid emissions policy, hedging for gt3C warming
    by 2100 needs to be contemplated.
  • Sea level rise estimates need to consider
    outcomes not quantified in the IPCC AR4,
    including Greenland and perhaps West Antarctica

35
Plan early!!
36
CONTACT DETAILS
  • ROGER N JONES
  • BUSINESS AND LAW
  • CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC ECONOMIC STUDIES
  • PHONE 61 3 9919 1992
  • FAX 61 3 9919 1350
  • EMAIL roger.jones_at_vu.edu.au

WWW.VU.EDU.AU
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