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Can the Nigerian Project be Salvaged?


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Title: Can the Nigerian Project be Salvaged?

Can the Nigerian Project be Salvaged?
  • Growth, Democracy and Security
  • Richard Joseph

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Fannie Lou Hamer, 1917-1977
Former Presidents Carter Clinton
Senator Barack Obama, June 2006
Chinua Achebe, December 2010
Governance, Enterprise and Shared Prosperity
  • With better governance, I have no doubt that
    Africa holds the promise of a broader base of
    prosperity. Witness the extraordinary Witness the
    extraordinary success of Africans in my country,
    America. They're doing very well. So they've got
    the talent, they've got the entrepreneurial
    spirit. The question is, how do we make sure that
    they're succeeding here in their home countries?
  • President Barack Obama, Accra, Ghana,
    July 2009
  • How do we begin to solve these problems in
    Nigeria where the structures are present but
    there is no accountability?
  • Professor Chinua Achebe, January 2011

Developmental Governance
  • Africas future will not differ from the grim
    present if a Weberian culture of effective and
    legitimate bureaucratic organization does not
    take root in African soil. At the center of smart
    partnerships for African development will be one
    overriding commitment building sustainable
    institutions that actually work as intended. How
    this very fundamental but revolutionary step can
    be made is a question for which answers have not
    been found.
  • R. Joseph, Smart Partnerships for African
  • US Institute for Peace, May 2002
  • Consortium for Development Partnerships, 2004
  • Research Alliance to Combat HIV/AIDS, 2006

Scholars Forum, BusinessDay, June 2009
  • As the Obama era unfolds, there are four
    contributions I hope to make to help fulfill the
    agenda for progress and transformation
  • Write up the narratives of African, and
    especially Nigerian, struggles for peace,
    democracy and social justice that I have
    personally experienced.
  • Provide policy advice regarding key development
    challenges in Africa. In the case of Nigeria, at
    the top of the list is the failure to establish a
    fully independent, non-partisan, and capable
    electoral system.

Scholars Forum, BusinessDay, June 2009
  • 3. Advance analyses of Africas mighty problem
    which is the failure in many countries to create
  • universalistic, legitimate, and capable state.
  • 4. Help design a Nigerian Project on sustainable
    growth and development that would draw on the
    extensive technological resources, notably in the
    United States, to address key economic and
    infrastructure challenges.

Nigeria 2025
  • By 2025, if the necessary transformations have
    occurred, Nigerians should bask in the
    economic growth that has taken place and the
    developmental governance for which they have
    become known. This vision can become a reality.
  • R. Joseph, June 2009
  • I am sure you are one of the optimists who think
    the current security crisis presents President
    Goodluck Jonathan an opportunity for fundamental
    reform of Nigerian governance which he may just
  • Dr. Abimbola Agboluaje, February 8, 2012

What is Nigeria?
  • Nigeria had been formed by the gradual
    incorporation of different contiguous areas and
    peoples into the British Empire from 1861
    onwards, taking its final shape by 1914, when the
    celebrated amalgamation by Lord Lugard
    established the administrative pattern of a
    coastal Colony (Lagos and its hinterland) and a
    Protectorate over the rest of the country
  • K.W.J. Post and Michael Vickers, Structure and
    Conflict in Nigeria (1973)
  • Before colonialism there were no states called
    India or Nigeria.
  • Isaac Chotiner, The New York Times, March 4, 2012

The Making of Nigeria
  • Any country is, in a sense, an artificial
    creation. In the case of Nigeria, however, union
    was so sudden, and included such widely differing
    groups of peoples that not only the British, who
    created it, but the inhabitants themselves, have
    often doubted whether it could survive as a
    political entity. On 1st October, 1960, despite
    many difficulties, Nigeria became a sovereign
    federation and has survived intact despite a
    protracted civil war.
  • Michael Crowder, The Story of Nigeria (1962/1978)
  • Britains decision to join the Islamic north of
    the country with non-Muslim settlements in the
    south fed tribal conflicts and insurgencies that
    has lasted to this day.
  • Isaac Chotiner, March 4, 2012

Thomas Lionel Hodgkin, 1910-1982He did more
than anyone else to establish the serious study
of African history in Britain. Obituary, The
Times (London)
Thomas Hodgkin at Crab Mill, Oxfordshire
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The Making of Nigeria
  • Perhaps the first event in Nigerian history to
    which a reasonably accurate date can be assigned
    is the conversion to Islam of Umme (or Humai),
    Mai of Kanem, shortly before the end of the 11th
    centuryIn the 1240s, its Kanems government
    built a madrasa for Kanem pilgrims and students
    residing in Cairo
  • Ibn Khaldun,14th centuryhis account of the
    embassy which Kanem sent to al-Mustansir, the
    founder of the Hafsid dynasty in Tunisia, and the
    public excitement caused by the gift of a
  • Thomas Hodgkin, Nigerian Perspectives An
    Historical Anthology (1960/1975)

The Future Nigeria
Pre-Nigeria States
Pre-Nigeria Sokoto Caliphate
Sokoto Caliphate
  • Shaikh Uthman dan Fodio, Jihad, 1804-1809
  • Its objectives were always presented in Islamic,
    not in ethnic terms, and tribalism was
    explicitly and frequently condemned
  • It had a genuine popular basisIt also
    represented a protest of the Hausa commoners
    (talakawa) against the old Hausa dynasties
    against the oppression of the ruling class as
    much as against its paganism or lack of
  • The kind of state which the leaders of the
    revolution were pledged to establish was a state
    in which social justice, administered in the
    light of the Sharia by God-fearing rulers, took
    the place of the arbitrary decisions of
    irresponsible despots.
  • T. Hodgkin

Sokoto Caliphate
  • The most obvious consequence of the jihad was
    the imposition of the authority of a single
    government over a large region formerly occupied
    by a number of competing sovereign states.
  • European commentators have tended to
    underestimate the extent to which the Caliphate
    survived through the nineteenth century as an
    effective political system.
  • The two major empire-building movements in
    Nigeria which marked the beginning and end of
    the 19th century Fulani and British had
    more in common than is sometimes realized.
  • T. Hodgkin

Nigeria, 1965
Today 36 States
Geopolitical Zones
University of Ibadan, 1976-79
Kamerun to Nigerian Project
  • Ruben Um Nyobé and The Kamerun Rebellion,
    African Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 293 (1974)
  • Settlers, Strikers and Sans-Travail The Douala
    Riots of September 1945, Journal of African
    History, Vol. XV, No. 4 (1974)
  • The Royal Pretender Prince Douala Manga Bell
    in Paris, 1919-1922, Cahiers dEtudes
    Africaines, Vol. XIV, No. 54 (1974)
  • The German Question in French Cameroun,
    1919-1939, Comparative Studies in Society and
    History, Vol. 17, No. 1 (1975)
  • National Politics in Postwar Cameroun The
    Difficult Birth of the UPC, Journal of African
    Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2 (1975)
  • The Gaullist Legacy Patterns of French
    Neo-Colonialism, Review of African Political
    Economy, No. 6 (1976)

Kamerun to Nigerian Project
  • Radical Nationalism in Cameroun Social Origins
    of the UPC Rebellion (Oxford The Clarendon
    Press, 1977)also published as Le Mouvement
    Nationaliste au Cameroun (Paris Karthala, 1986)
  • National Objectives and Public Accountability,
    Issues in the Nigerian Draft Constitution, ed. S.
    Kumo and A. Aliyu (Zaria, Nigeria Institute of
    Administration, 1977)
  • Affluence and Underdevelopment The Nigerian
    Experience, Journal of Modern African Studies,
    Vol. 16, No. 2 (1978)
  • Gaullist Africa Cameroon under Ahmadu Ahidjo
    (Enugu, Nigeria Fourth Dimension Publishers,
    1978), editor
  • Political Parties and Ideology in Nigeria,
    Review of African Political Economy, No. 13

Conference on Nigerian Draft
Constitution March 1977
Conference on Nigerian Draft
March 1977
Knowledge Generation Social Progress
  • The military regarded the university as an
    enemy-formation and tried hard to empty the
    Nigerian university of its intellectual contents
    resulting in the scattering of Nigerias best
    brains in foreign universities and other
  • ...our commitment to the revitalization of the
    educational system in Ekiti State. We recognize
    the importance of the university as a fountain of
    knowledge-generation and social progress.
  • Governor Kayode Fayemi

Ekiti Governor Dr. Kayode Fayemi, Professors M.
Aluko and R. Joseph
Dysfunction Sub-Optimalism
  • They have stolen much of our collective wealth
    and left us with little to fight our massive
    poverty. They have not created a united
    countryThey have failed to give us appropriate
    infrastructureThey have not given us the level
    of peace and stability needed to attract
    sufficient foreign investmentThey have not
    managed to diversify our economy despite the
    billions they have earned from oil. They have
    maintained a huge developmental gap between
    policy and implementation.
  • Prof. Ebere Onwudiwe, 2009

Growth Development Debate
  • British aid agency Oxfam has flayed the
    International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World
    Bank (WB) for their complacent approach to the
    problems caused in sub-Saharan Africa because of
    its huge external debt, which is in excess of
    183 billion.
  • "After a decade of structural adjustment programs
    implemented under the tutelage of the World Bank
    and the IMF, Africa remains trapped in a downward
    spiral of economic and social decline and poverty
    is increasing. There is "overwhelming evidence
    that existing adjustment policies have failed
    they have neither created a platform for
    sustainable recovery nor addressed the central
    problem of poverty alleviation.
  • November, 1993

Growth Development Debate
  • IMF managing director Michel Camdessus reacted
    angrily to the Oxfam report and said he, too,
    feared "the sinking of a continent" and was
    disturbed that per capita growth rates in Africa
    had been falling for the last 20 years The level
    of debt "has remained an overwhelming obstacle"
    to recovery and calls for debt forgiveness by the
  • Camdessus added African countries needed to make
    important changes, including putting the right
    macroeconomic policies in place and reforming and
    strengthening governmental institutions.
  • November 1993

Growth Development Debate
  • Let me tell you why I believe that success is
    possible. The situation in Africa has improved.
    .. I have no intention of overlooking the poverty
    and all the deficiencies that we still face This
    does not apply to the countries ravaged by war,
    fratricidal conflicts, and serious political
    upheavals It is clear that an economic recovery
    began in 1994. Real GDP growth in sub-Saharan
    Africa is expected to average roughly 5 percent
    in 1996-97, compared with only 1 percent in
    1991-93. And at last, real per capita GDP growth
    will be clearly positive for the first time in
    many years.
  • Michel Camdessus, July 1996

Growth Development Debate
  • The "Afro-pessimists" will tell you that this
    recovery will be short-livedthat it is readily
    explained by an uptick in the terms of trade due
    to shifts in commodity prices.
  • How wrong they are. According to the most
    rigorous studies, Africa's stronger growth is
    explained not by higher commodity prices, but by
    the fact that an increasing number of countries
    have undertaken courageous adjustment and
    structural reform programs.
  • This is the key to Africa's progress.
  • Michel Camdessus, July 1996

IMF Reform Agenda
  • What did these reform programs involve?
  • Reducing public sector deficits so they could
    be financed without fanning inflation or building
    up excessive debt
  • maintaining monetary stability while maintaining
    realistic exchange rates and liberalizing prices
  • mobilizing domestic savings and liberalizing
  • freeing the productive energies of the economies
    through comprehensive structural reform.
  • Michel Camdessus, July 1996

Emerging Africa
  • more democratic and accountable governments
  • more sensible economic policies
  • end of the debt crisis and better relations with
    external agencies
  • new technologies and opportunities for business
    and political accountability
  • a new generation of policymakers, activists and
    business leaders
  • Steven Radelet , 2010

The Radelet Narrative Africa, 1995 - 2010
  • Emerging Africa
  • Threshold Countries
  • Non-Emerging Countries
  • OilExporters

Africa Rising The Hopeful Continent
  • Over the past decade six of the worlds ten
    fastest-growing countries were African. In eight
    of the past ten years, Africa has grown faster
    than East Asia, including Japan. Even allowing
    for the knock-on effect of the northern
    hemispheres slowdown, the IMF expects Africa to
    grow by 6 this year and nearly 6 in 2012, about
    the same as Asia.
  • The Economist, December 3, 2011
  • Vijay Rajahan, Africa Rising, 2010

Africa Rising The Hopeful Continent
  • Africa is on the move from basket case to a
    potential bread basket, from dodgy debtor to
    investor opportunity.
  • A market of nearly 1 billion people, about a
    third of them under 21, is making up for five
    wasted post-independence decades.
  • There is a wave of creativity novelists and
    artists, film-makers and musicians, designers and
    stylists, all are thriving.
  • Michael Holman, Financial Times, February 28, 2012

Conflicting Narratives
  • Sub-Saharan Africa has an unprecedented
    opportunity for transformation and sustained
    growth and could be on the brink of an economic
    takeoff, much like China was 30 years ago, and
    India 20 years ago.
  • World Bank, Africa Regional Strategy, March 2011
  • Progress, stagnation and discouraging regression
    continue to co-exist on the continent.
  • Africa Progress Panel, 2011 (Kofi Annan, Chairman)

Conflicting Narratives
  • Radical and growing economic inequality
    animated much of what was at stake in the various
    Arab uprisings, and it will play a major role in
    shaping African politicsThe disaffected
    Tunisian street vendor who set himself alight
    was not so different from many disaffected young
    men of Nairobi and Kampalas slums. They are
    Africas overwhelming majority poor,
    marginalized and angry about corruption and
    soaring food and fuel prices. It is those young
    men who endure the daily humiliations of poverty,
    struggling to find jobs as elites crow about
    growth and an African renaissance.
  • John Githongo, Anti-Corruption Crusader, Kenya,
    July 2011

Nigerian Narratives
  • We are going down an escalator that is going
  • Dele Olojede, Publisher, NEXT newspaper, Lagos
  • We have major systemic issues arising from
    decades of unchecked corruption. Those systems,
    the beneficiaries, the sectional interests and
    others that depend on these benefits wouldn't
    just fold their arms while we threaten their
    interests. We have begun a very painful process
    of correcting the system. It is no easy featWhat
    we are implementing are not theoretical solutions
    but solutions aimed at correcting the very ills
    plaguing our country.
  • Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Nigerian Minister of
    Finance, January 2012

Emerging Africa and Nigeria
  • For the first time, the proportion of people
    living in extreme poverty less than 1.25 a day
    fell in every developing region from 2005-2010.
    In sub-Saharan Africa it droppedbelow 50 for
    the first time.
  • The World Bank, February 29, 2012
  • In Nigeria, poverty continues to increase. 61 of
    Nigerians, 97.6 million, live on less than 1 a
    day. Poverty is 10 higher in 2010 than in 2004.
  • Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics, February
    13, 2012

Symposium on Growth, Democracy, Security
  • Post-liberation States and Non-Democratic
    Development Angola, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda
  • Pivotal Nations Angola, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast,
    Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa
  • Re-territorializing trans-Sahara, trans-Sahel,
    regional configurations
  • Expanding oil and gas reserves Ghana, Uganda,
    Ivory Coast, Mozambique
  • South-South Relations China, India, Brazil
  • State, War and Predation Congo, Sudan, Somalia,
  • Turmoil and Transition Egypt, Libya, Morocco,
    Tunisia, (Algeria?)
  • At-Risk Democracies Botswana, Ghana, Mali,
  • Building Democracy Guinea, Ivory Coast, Liberia,
    Niger, Zambia
  • African Global GDS Islamism,
    Counter-Insurgency, Food, Water, Climate, Energy

  • Claiming Democracy
  • Building Social Wealth
  • GATE (Governmental Accountability, Transparency
    and Efficiency)
  • INVENT (Invest in Ethical Entrepreneurship)
  • State-Nation Configuration

Claiming Democracy
  • In much of the developing and postcommunist
    worlds, democracy has been a superficial
    phenomenon, blighted by multiple forms of bad
    governance abusive police and security forces,
    domineering local oligarchies, incompetent and
    indifferent state bureaucracies, corrupt and
    inaccessible judiciaries, and venal ruling elites
    who are contemptuous of the rule of law and
    accountable to no one but themselves.
  • In these regimes the purpose of government is
    not to generate public goods, such as roads,
    schools, clinics, and sewer systems. Instead it
    is to produce private goods for officials, their
    families, and their cronies.
  • Larry Diamond, The Democratic Rollback The
    Resurgence of the Predatory State, Foreign
    Affairs (2008)

Claiming Democracy
  • The aspirations of the African people, as shown
    in survey after survey, including in Nigeria,
    have not been matched by what politicians
    actually do once they are elected. Democracy is
    therefore compressed into a voting act performed
    every four or five years. In view of the
    declining quality of elections, even these acts
    can be drained of meaning.
  • Nigeria needs more efficient, transparent,
    responsive and accountable governmentsMuch
    remains to be done to get federal, state and
    local governments performing in ways commensurate
    with the nation's abundant human and material
  • R. Joseph, Nigerias 50th Anniversary, Abuja and
    Lagos, October 2010

Claiming Democracy
  • This is essentially a peoples contestIt is a
    struggle for maintaining in the world, that form,
    and substance of government whose leading object
    is to elevate the condition of men to lift
    artificial weights from all shoulders to clear
    the paths for all to afford all an even start
    and a fair chance, in the race of life.
  • Abraham Lincoln
  • Presidential Message to Congress, 1861

Building Social Wealth
  • Water, Energy, Agriculture, Law-based
    Governance, Transportation, Health
  • Francis Fukuyama
  • substantive as well as procedural democracy
    elections as well as jobs, roads, electricity,
    water, food, health care

Knowledge Production Social Progress
  • More than ever before, at this historic juncture
    in Nigeria, we need our best minds to steer the
    ship of state.
  • Governor Babatunde Fashola
  • Lagos State

The Fashola Reform Agenda
  • 1. aggressive road construction
  • 2. integrated mass transit
  • 3. improved power and water supply
  • 4. environmental renewal
  • 5. affordable shelter
  • 6/7. qualitative and affordable education and
    health care
  • 8. food security
  • 9. employment generation
  • 10. revenue enhancement

Nigeria 2025 Growth, Democracy and Security
  • I. Civic and Communal Associations,
    Corporations, NGOs, Faith Groups
  • II. Local Governments, States, Sub-National
    Zones, Confederation
  • III. Qualitative Education
  • IV. Strategic Partnerships and Out-Sourcing
  • V. Engaging the Diaspora
  • VI. Ethical Leadership Followership

State-Nation Configuration
  • We have failed as a people to confront the
    fundamental structural challenges of our national
    togetherness and collective political life.
  • Unless wereorder the fundamentally flawed logic
    on which Nigeria has operated until now, we will
    not be able put the national state in the service
    of the diverse people who constitute it.
  • Governor Kayode Fayemi, September 2011

Conglomerate Voting Pattern
  • Presidential Election
  • April 2011

Nigeria 2025Collaborative Learning and Action
  • Nigeria after Military Rule 1999-2025
  • Midway 26-year Marathon
  • A Conglomerate Society, Ken Post (1973)
  • A Cultural Federation, Turi Muhammadu (1979)
  • Amalgamation 1914-2014 E Pluribus Unum
  • April 2015 Elections, and Beyond
  • Nigerian Consensus/Nigerian Compact/Nigerian
  • South-South Learning Brazil-India-Nigeria-Indones
  • What tried? What worked? What failed? What next?

AfricaPlus Expand Knowledge, Design Solutions
  • Library and Documentation
  • Collaborative Projects
  • Symposium on Growth, Democracy and Security
  • Distance Learning Policy Consultation
  • Teleseminars
  • Teaching and Research Partnerships
  • Publications

Northern Nigeria and the National Project
  • 1. The End of Northern Primacy
  • 2. North Military Dominance, 1979 -1999
  • 3. The Second Obasanjo Regnum, 1999 - ?
  • 4. Goodluck Jonathans Presidency, 2010-2015?
  • 5. Northern Diversity 70-75 million population
  • 6. Islam and Pluralism
  • 7. Education Stagnation, Economic Decline
  • 8. Political Manipulation of Religion
  • 9. Military/Security/Criminal Networks
  • 10. Youths without Jobs, Education, Hope
  • 11. Global Jihadism/Counter-Insurgency
  • 12. Centenary of the Amalgamation 2014