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Making Our World a More Understandable Place

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Title: Making Our World a More Understandable Place


1
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • ? Political Language and Those Who Use It
  • ? Democracy and Its Many Meanings
  • ? Challenges to American Objectives
  • Grandmas Recipe for Success
  • ? New Old Visions of Politics EU Nationalism
  • ? Big Countries/Small Countries Does Size
    Matter?
  • ? Globalization Positive Negative Visions
  • ? Whos Your Cousin? Insights from Science
    Genetics

2
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • Propose to take you on a thoughtful political
    adventure where we encounter new visions and
    contemplate new ideas

3
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • Political Language and
  • Those Who Use It

4
How open are YOU to
  • ?recognizing purposeful ambiguity
  • ?acknowledging political manipulation
  • ?differentiating theory from practice
  • ?resisting defensive posturing
  • ?abandoning assumptions of superiority
  • ?rethinking the utility and precision of the
    words we use

5
Intellectual Sedatives
  • Better labeled POLITICAL SEDATIVES
  • Basic notion It is in the interest of segments
    of our
  • system to get a thought-less response to an
    appeal!
  • The reason this works is the presumption that we
    all know what a particular term means.
    Therefore, it requires absolutely no investment
    of our time or effort to think about what it
    means.
  • Quite naturally, those directing our behaviors
    (responses) are advantaged if we neglect to
    challenge them or the premises they offer us.

6
Intellectual Sedatives
  • ?Words or phrases that invite us NOT to
  • think about what they mean !
  • ?These fit our lifestyle because we have no
    time to put them under the microscope
  • ?Comfortable because everyone knows that there
    is a division of labor some things need to be
    left to our political managers
  • ?We know they are guided by the highest motives !

7
WHO?
  • Politicians
  • Media
  • Experts
  • Opinion-shapers
  • Political Evangelists
  • Teachers
  • How guilty are we / you?

8
Why might we be a part of the problem?
  • Choose to communicate in terms that are
    understood
  • Not enough time to reconstruct our political
    language
  • Apprehension about seeming un-American
  • Misuse has a very long history
  • we may be unsure of where more carefully
    defining terms could lead us
  • We may not have given thought to the nature of
    the terms simply accepted the norms

9
Symbolism or Reality?
  • Consider how frequently we USE the following
    terms and how infrequently we think about what
    EXACTLY we mean

10
Freedom
  • Unrestrained oxymoron partial freedom Politics
  • Social process involving rivalry and cooperation
    in the making of a decision binding on a group
  • Most freedom least government?
  • Most democracy least government?
  • Source of rules constraints?

11
What political structures create freedom?
  • Rules, laws, policies defines
  • ?Alternative idea choice
  • Priority? --
  • political choice vs. economic choice
  • Empowering?
  • political choice vs. economic choice

12
Equality and Fairness
  • Ultimate fairness
  • treating everyone the same?
  • Where and when do we do this?
  • Treating people unequally
  • according to special needs, talents,
    abilities

13
Equality
  • Un-American!
  • Recognition of differences
  • Anti-capitalist anti-politics
  • equal opportunity misnomer
  • what is that really?
  • Example inheritance

14
Persistently MISUSED!
  • Very tough choices for us what to do
  • Conform or invest in the effort to renovate use
    of the terms?

15
RIGHT LEFTConservative Liberal
  • Most delicate of all American confusion!
  • CLASSIC ideological continuum
  • ?Key Locus of Power in the larger system
  • individual state
  • ? . ?
  • Left Right
  • liberal conservative
  • choice power

16
Crisis
  • Requiring immediate, dramatic response to avoid
    massive damage
  • Proliferation of the term negates its meaning
  • NOT simply a problem

17
Discrimination
  • Differentiating, sorting, evaluating
  • Constant! not negative phenomenon
  • Adjective is politically critical
  • The world is dependent on discrimination!

18
Rights
  • Guarantee!
  • Source? The sovereign state /
  • governing authority
  • Abridged? Can you think of a right that has not
    been ?
  • No UNIVERSAL rights
  • No INALIENABLE rights

19
Justice
  • guilty punished innocent not punished
  • ?Procedural vs. substantive justice
  • Due process
  • Faith in jury system
  • ?Epidemic litigation environment

20
Rule of LawIs any political system without law?
  • ?Magic removing arbitrary decisions
  • ?Predictability is the objective
  • process or outcome?
  • Procedural vs. substantive justice
  • ?Guilty punished innocent not
  • ?Masses approve new rules?

21
Nation
  • Most prolifically misused !
  • Mistakenly used in place of STATE
  • Most often properly used in academic and
    particularly in comparative studies,
  • STATE is a political entity defined by boundaries
    and sovereignty (country)
  • NATION is an ethno-cultural identity
  • a people with claimed elaborate common
    characteristics

22
Terms that have too many meanings to be useful
  • Extreme caution is warranted that what we mean is
    what is being understood!
  • representation, war, development, leadership,
    participation

23
Representation
  • Transmission of interests
  • responsive to inputs?
  • Delegate vs. trustee
  • Obligation

24
War
  • Conflict of the sort or condition that changes
    all rules or negates all rules
  • Explicitly everyone is threatened by a well
    defined enemy and any recourse is thus justified
  • Removes limits on policy-makers

25
Development
  • Overwhelming lack of clarity
  • only thing in common is process
  • industrialization
  • urbanization
  • globalization
  • complexity
  • increased government services
  • rising income levels
  • mimicking the US economic model

26
Leadership
  • Creating consensus of values
  • Effectively guiding society
  • Setting the pace, fine-tuning the societys
    direction
  • All or any cop out

27
Participation
  • Accessing or influencing the authorities
  • Actual or possible?
  • Input or output side?
  • More participation better?
  • more democratic?
  • System overload / capacity

28
Should we stop using these terms?
  • Perhaps! In some cases, YES!
  • freedom, equality, fairness, justice, social
    justice
  • In other cases, NO! but carefully and
  • patiently put them under the microscope.
  • Challenge yourself to examine and articulate what
    you mean.

29
What is to be done?
  • Be sure the terms / concepts are clear to you!
  • Use the most appropriate term with the most
    precise meaning
  • Remind yourself that no system is perfect that
    there are always characters who will try to
    encourage you to THINK less about complex things

30
  • Perhaps you noticed the omission of democracy
    in these reflections on
  • meaning and usage
  • The subject for our next session.

31
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • ? Democracy and Its Many Meanings
  • ? Challenges to American Objectives
  • Grandmas Recipe for Success
  • ? New Old Visions of Politics EU Nationalism
  • ? Big Countries/Small Countries Does Size
    Matter?
  • ? Globalization Positive Negative Visions
  • ? Whos Your Cousin? Insights from Science
    Genetics

32
Gorbachev on Two Hooligans
33
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • ? Democracy and Its Many Meanings
  • ? Challenges to American Objectives
  • Grandmas Recipe for Success
  • ? New Old Visions of Politics EU Nationalism
  • ? Big Countries/Small Countries Does Size
    Matter?
  • ? Globalization Positive Negative Visions
  • ? Whos Your Cousin? Insights from Science
    Genetics

34
Questions for next time
  • What product represents the greatest VOLUME of US
    exports?
  • What percentage of the worlds languages are at
    risk of becoming extinct?

35
Dick Farkas
  • Professor, Political Science, DePaul University,
    Chicago
  • Student of Comparative Politics International
    Relations
  • 40 years of University teaching / 37 at DePaul
  • Most recent book DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
  • Current research Corporate Democracy, Bosnian
    Constitutional Design, Political/Historical Novel
    about American colonial life (GYRE)
  • Recreational Sailor, zealous traveler (3
    circumnavigations)

36
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • Democracy and
  • Its Many Meanings

37
We believe DEMOCRACY is
  • Does it make a difference if we are talking about
    what it is or what it ought to be?

38
Democracy Sloganeering
  • Thinking Really THINKING about Democracy
  • Typical answers

39
Government of the People, by the People and
for the People
  • Notions of commonness, engagement, service
  • Suggests an intimacy between people gov
  • Wisdom reside in the majority?
  • If people dont engage?
  • How much service to the public? All the public?

40
Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness
  • Non-violent non-coercive
  • Unlimiting
  • Locus of power with individual
  • Normative

41
People choosing theirleaders
  • Opportunity or actual?
  • Choices control of choices?
  • How managed are elections?
  • Who manages elections?
  • Who actually chooses?

42
The trouble with elections conditions that
discount public input
  • ?Designation of constituencies
  • ?Who is enfranchised
  • ?Who is left voiceless SMDP vs. PR
  • ?Structuring choices/range, representativeness
  • ?Absence of pluralism/platforms
  • ?Voter turnout
  • ? between elections/elections rationalize neglect

43
  • The people who vote decide nothing the people
    who count the vote decide everything.

44
Intellectual sedatives
  • Words or phrases that invite us NOT to
  • think about what they mean !
  • These fit our lifestyle and pressures because we
    have no time to put all ideas under the
    microscope.
  • These are comfortable because everyone knows
    that there is a division of labor some things
    need to be left to our political managers.
  • We know they are guided by the highest motives !

45
Freedom
  • Most democracy least government
  • Gov is the source of rules constraint
  • What political structures create?
  • create, abridge, deny ?

46
International Centre for Prison Studies
  • USA locks up more citizens than any other country
    in the world
  • USA 737 prisoners per 100,000 pop.
  • 2 of every 10 prisoners are awaiting trial
  • 1 in every 32 adults is currently in jail, on
    probation or on parole

47
Interpretation?
  • ? More LAW
  • ? More ORDER
  • ? More criminals
  • ? More opportunity
  • ? More motivation measure man by money
  • ? Fewer personal values, morals
  • Is there something about democracy that makes
    this happen?

48
If DEMOCRAY is to be shared
  • ?Need a clear, workable, adaptable sense of what
    it is
  • ?Recipient leaders will find themselves in tough
    situations which juxtapose many societies
    objectives
  • ?When there is no singularly clear, correct
    decision, what can guide policy-making to insure
    long-term democratic direction?

49
Example of the strain
  • Norway decide to subsidize publishers
  • who publish Norwegian language materials
  • ?Market too small for profit
  • ?Overwhelming majority say culture will be lost
  • ?Publishers want subsidy for all languages
  • ?Majority are against perpetual gov subsidies
  • ?Gov considering veiling policy via tax breaks
  • ?Indigenous languages want same treatment
  • ?Considering assigning decision to indep.
    commission

50
The following are the common premises upon which
the leadership of any system can hold a steady
course toward democracy
  • Where do these ideas come from?

51
Tolerance
  • ?NOT a matter of high principle or moral
    correctness!
  • ?Essential to competitiveness utilization of
    human capital
  • ?By underscoring inclusion, systems maximize
    productivity and creativity

52
Obligation
  • ?Government mandated to seek out and mirror
    public sentiment pursue publicly-defined
    interests
  • ?Usually reflected in architecture of the system
    (structures)
  • legislature, interest groups, media,
  • elite behavior rhetoric

53
Voice
  • ?Channels for accessing government need to be
    open, accessible and understood by the general
    public
  • ?Can be used intermittently
  • ?Capacity to send a signal confidence that it
    will be heard potential that it will resonate
    with elites
  • ?Must create public space for voice
  • ?Commitment must exist in elites masses

54
Constraint
  • ?Those in power understand and accept
  • that they are constrained to curb their
    impulses to exercise authority
  • ?Formal boundaries added boundaries to promote
    balance between individual and collective
    interests
  • ?Authorities must feel constrained and
    restrained in their conduct

55
Transparency
  • ?If people are to play some role, must see
  • WHEN authority is being exercised
  • ?Not natural, must design windows that can shed
    light on operations, decisions and
    administration
  • ?Commitment to special procedures key

56
Legitimacy
  • ?Vision that the governed have of those in power
  • ?Masses singular source
  • ?Achieved power by proper means
  • ?Public has responsibility to accept or reject
    the path to power
  • ?Thereby, scrutinize leadership

57
Where does this leave us?
  • ?The US system is not an ideal model
  • ?Culture, history and objective circumstances
    REQUIRE that our working definition be flexible
    and achievable
  • ?Appropriate intellectual caution about the use
    of the term democracy

58
  • PATHS TO DEMOCRACY
  • Getting there
  • And KNOWING that we are getting there

59
Requisites as I conceptualize them
  • ?Consensus of Values (destination)
  • ?Assembled Political Machinery
  • (vehicle)
  • ?Effective Leadership (driver)

60
Requisites VALUES
  • ?Consensus must emerge
  • in essence, provides direction
  • ?Specifics
  • politics as compromise
  • politics as not-for-profit undertaking
  • politics as public service
  • politics as criticism


61
Genuinely Democratic Values
  • ?Tolerance (most central / critical)
  • ?Obligation
  • ?Voice
  • ?Constraint
  • ?Transparency
  • ?Legitimacy
  • In the real world, these are NOT always
    compatible
  • In those cases, TOLERANCE should prevail.

62
Speaking to our economic political values
  • The freest government, if it could exist, would
    not be long acceptable if the tendency of the
    laws were to create a rapid accumulation of
    property in few hands, and to render the great
    mass of the population dependent and penniless.
  • Daniel
    Webster

63
  • The conflict between capitalism and
  • democracy is inherent and continuous.

  • Nehru
  • Democracy institutionalizes uncertainty.
  • In this sense, it is compatible with
    capitalism. RPF

64
POLITICAL ARCHITECTURE
  • Some features vehicle
  • ?Designed and routinized relationships
  • among government institutions (leg/exec,
    etc.)
  • ?Functional differentiation among levels of
    government (especially central / local)
  • ?Civilian led, constrained coercive authorities
  • ?Structures for public input
  • ?Structures for public dialogue


65
Political Architecture The US Institutional
Model 10 Structural Elements
  • ?Separation of powers
  • ?Two party system
  • ?Executive presidency
  • ?Commercial media
  • ?Jury system
  • ?Pluralism
  • ?Litigating society
  • (focus conflict resolution)
  • ?Term Elections
  • ?Money energized politics
  • ?Undefined representation

66
POLITICAL LEADERSHIP
  • driver
  • ? Identified by regular, public orgs
  • ? Management experience
  • ? Dedicated to the public interest
  • ? Forward-facing
  • ? Tolerant of criticism
  • ? Effective public policy makers
  • ? Committed to power limits term limits

67
  • Direction
  • Vehicle
  • Driver
  • Minimal Requisites for DEMOCRACY !

68
Questions Comments
69
The tourist and the 3 jars
70
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • ? Challenges to American Objectives
  • Grandmas Recipe for Success
  • ? New Old Visions of Politics EU Nationalism
  • ? Big Countries/Small Countries Does Size
    Matter?
  • ? Globalization Positive Negative Visions
  • ? Whos Your Cousin? Insights from Science
    Genetics

71
Questions for next time
  • What country has the highest percentage of its
    population on FACEBOOK?
  • Which country is the largest owner of US federal
    government debt?

72
Dick Farkas
  • Professor, Political Science, DePaul University,
    Chicago
  • Student of Comparative Politics International
    Relations
  • 40 years of University teaching / 37 at DePaul
  • Most recent book DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
  • Current research Corporate Democracy, Bosnian
    Constitutional Design, Political/Historical Novel
    about American colonial life (GYRE)
  • Recreational Sailor, zealous traveler (3
    circumnavigations)

73
Challenges to American Objectives in the 21st
Century
  • Grandmas recipe for success

74
  • 79 of Americans polled agree that
  • Its good that American ideas and customs are
    spreading around the world.
    Pew Global Attitudes
  • Less than 40 of Europeans polled endorse the
    spread of American ideas and customs.

75
Core problems
  • ?We embrace rhetoric without thinking
  • (intellectual sedatives)
  • ?We succumb to embellished self-images
  • ?We find comfort in them and us portraits of
    reality
  • ?We have a classically youthful sense of
    invincibility
  • ?We dont perceive leaders as learners
  • ?We show little respect for foreign methods /
    ideas
  • (because, after all, everyone wants to come
    here)

76
What Grandma knows
  • ?Grandma euphemism for those that immigrated
    here
  • ?That immigrant experience validated different
    cultures and behaviors
  • ?It also underlined the imperfect nature of
    American society
  • ?So, structuring life behavior for success
    became a matter of simple values --
    Propose to examine some

77
Real source of the prescriptions ?
  • ?Perhaps the stark colonial life of
  • Poor Richards Almanac
  • ?Perhaps the forced adaptation of new immigrants
  • ?Perhaps the keen insight of persons living in a
    world they knew that they couldnt fully
    comprehend

78
  • PRESCRIPTIONS based upon considerable empirical
    work
  • In other words, suggestions of what OUGHT to be
    based upon an examination of what IS.

79
Tend to your own house first
  • ?US model of development resonates with the rest
    of the world only to the extent that American
    resources are consistently dedicated to our
    people and their needs
  • ?Neglect suggests hypocrisy
  • ?Key values tolerance,
  • individual choice, and transparency

80
A penny saved is a penny earned
  • ?In comparative terms, America has
  • extraordinary financial capacity
  • ?The World sees this as
  • money makes right
  • ?Developing weapons because we can
  • and engaging other societies because we can is
    perceived by significant numbers as obscene and
    abusive

81
  • ?The reality is that prudent management of
    American resources would dictate that more budget
    restraint would yield more results
  • ?Without deficits, overspending and
  • blatant budget manipulation, US foreign policy
    options would be greater
  • ?The clearest way for a government to demonstrate
    restraint and signal intent to the world
    community is through its budget

82
Always keep a dollar in your pocket
  • ?This simple prescription builds on the previous
    point.
  • ?If a government maintains surpluses,
  • it has the flexibility and capacity to deal
    with unanticipated circumstances and emergency
    situations
  • ?The logic and wisdom is inescapable!


83
In sharp contrast
  • We are creating a deficit hole for many future
    generations by
  • ?Protracted war related costs
  • ?Weapons systems to counter no threat
  • ?Attempting to create a role for the US as
    political architect of the world

84
Perspective a trillionmillion, billion,
trillion
  • Think about seconds on a clock
  • ? 1,000 seconds ago was 17 minutes ago
  • ? 1,000,000 seconds was about 12 days ago
  • ? 1,000,000,000 secondsabout 32 years ago
  • ? 1,000,000,000,000 seconds was almost 32000
    years ago

85
  • The death of one man is a tragedy
  • The death of one million men is a statistic
    Josef Stalin

86
Self praise stinks
  • ?Resonates for me personally
  • ?Simplest of notions the world will
  • view self-promotion with skepticism,
  • distrust and revulsion
  • ?If strengths are evident, others will recognize
    (and cite)
  • ?US should not need to be emulated to be
    confident about it own path!

87
He that speaks much, is much mistaken
Ben Franklin 1736
  • ?Again, building on the former thought
  • ?Our world is buried in an avalanche of
    political rhetoric dulling media and
    ever-sharper indictments
  • ?Imitation is the highest form of flattery BUT
    only if it is democratically driven by genuine
    internal desire by a society


88
Mea culpa
  • ?Some would certainly observe that professors
    are a classic example of this danger
  • ?I agree and embrace that valid criticism
  • ?Nonetheless, as a society projecting ourselves
    to the world-at-large, we would do well to
    restrain our rhetoric and redouble our
    performance !

89
Being kind is more important than being right.
  • ?It follows, then, that actions do speak louder
    than words
  • ?Democracy has many meanings but certainly one
    that all people can embrace is a system that
    does more for people than it does to them.
  • ?The humanistic example may be more impressive
    than the legal, political or economic

90
The right to do something does not mean that
doing it is right. Safire
  • Tsunami Relief is a classic case of positive
    foreign policy, largely insulated from the
    worlds skepticism about our motives
  • Guantanamo may be an example of what Safire is
    pointing toward

91
One should keep his words both soft and tender,
because tomorrow he may have to eat them.
  • ?History informs us that empires wane
  • ?Add to this, our world shrinks
  • ?Given that America is a compulsively
    forward-thinking society, we more than most
    should understand that delicacy of language and
    overt treatment of our friends and foes will
    serve as the best insurance for our future
  • ?Do unto others as you would have them do unto you

92
Speak softly and carry a big stick
TR
  • ?Speak softly essence of humility
  • manifestation of confidence
  • ?Big stick
  • nuclear weapons changed the equation
  • 21st Century stick is
  • economics and education
  • TR first American recipient of
  • Nobel Peace Prize (1906)

93
If life was fair, Elvis would be alive and all
the impersonators would be dead.
Johnny
Carson
  • ?Explicitly, our world is not constructed around
    a broad conception of FAIRNESS
  • ?Americans seem unable to imagine themselves as
    anything other than gracious, kind, giving and
    helpful people therefore, we should be loved
    and admired
  • ?Others see us a tough, driven, insensitive to
    differences and messianic

94
A fanatic is one who cant change his mind and
wont change the subject. Churchill
  • ?To both friend and foe, our policies seem to
    emulate the characterization above
  • ?The adamant quality, unflinching confidence and
    sermon-like rhetoric simply define arrogance and
    superiority
  • ?The world is prone to ask, If our world changes
    so rapidly and the elements of power are so
    diverse, how can America be so SURE that it has
    the only answers?

95
Guidelines for successful people
  • ?Set achievable goals
  • ?Insure resources to support quest
  • ?Adapt and adjust as required
  • Simple, clear challenging

96
PUSH BACK
  • ? How well do these concepts travel?
  • ? Five select factors
  • ?history
  • ?religion
  • ?technology suspicion
  • ?capitalism vs. sharing
  • ?21st Century global politics

97
History
  • Epoch of European colonial empires
  • Cold War epoch
  • War on Terrorism epoch
  • ?What characteristic is shared by these?
  • ?gt the powerful imposing values / systems!
  • ?Lowers credibility in target countries
  • Irony real impulse not to institutionalize real
    democracy because diminishes control

98
Religion
  • ?Central problem is NOT any particular religion
    (i.e. ISLAM)
  • ?Religion is an awkward platform for democracy
    because it challenges the notion of mans
    control which is embedded in democratic theory
  • ?Higher AUTHORITY prescribes behavior

99
Technology Suspicion
  • ?Technology by definition changes its
    environment including unintended consequences
    political technologies
  • ?Importing countries are duly suspicious of the
    motives of exporters
  • Trojan horse analogy
  • ?Technological creation and absorption are
    unevenly configured (biased)
  • to advantage the exporter

100
Capitalism Sharing
  • ?The essentially raw nature of capitalist motives
    profiting and self-enhancement raise
    fundamental issues of suspicion for importers
  • ?Sharing is not a capitalist precept
  • ?If democracy will level the playing field in
    politics certainly capitalism will do little to
    level economics

101
21st Century Global Politics
  • ? Unilateralism democracy are neither
    compatible nor logically consistent
  • ? Democracy is being exported because the US
    the Europeans can export it raw power
    manipulation
  • ? Should wait for indigenous pressure
  • and desire

102
Final Analysis
  • Very complex we will observe apparently
    contradictory impulses
  • Requires significant flexibility by mentors
  • ?Democracy may and should LOOK different one
    from the other
  • Where the European Union has a role, it is
    engineering requisites for membership
  • ?values, architecture leadership?

103
Old Russian parable
  • A small bird is frozen in a Siberian snow storm

104
(No Transcript)
105
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • ? New Old Visions of Politics EU Nationalism
  • ? Big Countries/Small Countries Does Size
    Matter?
  • ? Globalization Positive Negative Visions
  • ? Whos Your Cousin? Insights from Science
    Genetics

106
Questions for next time
  • What percentage of professional athletes are from
    abroad?
  • NBA? MLB? English Premier League?
  • In which country do academics earn the highest
    income relative to the national average?

107
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • New Visions in Politics
  • European Union
  • Ethnic Nationalism

108
National Pride
  • of people very proud of their nationality
  • Iran 92 US 72
  • Philippines 85 Poland 71
  • Egypt 81 India 71
  • Mexico 80 UK 49
  • Vietnam 78 Denmark 48
  • Ireland 74 France 40

109
POLITICS
  • ?social process
  • ?rivalry cooperation
  • ?making of a decision
  • ?binding on a group
  • POLITICS is a social process involving rivalry
  • and cooperation culminating in the making
  • of a decision binding on a group.
  • POLITICS managing people for purpose

110
Think about your feeling about the following
terms
  • ? administer, manage
  • ? manipulate, force
  • ? direct, lead
  • ? order, control

111
Integrative Forces
  • ?Challenge from massive corporations seeking
    consistency exercising mobility
  • ?Economies of scale
  • ?Composite human resources
  • ?Cost of governing
  • ?Prospects for stability peace

112
Disintegrative Forces
  • ?Nationalism
  • ?History
  • ?Fear
  • ?Mythology of homogeneity
  • ?Political power Yugoslav example
  • ?Search for profits
  • ?Other ?

113
statesovereign state
  • ?government has ultimate authority to make
    decisions binding upon all those within the
    boundaries of that entity
  • ? country
  • ? not what Americans call states

114
Nation
  • UNIQUE
  • history, culture, language, religion, music, art,
    dance, preferences for color, race, behavioral
    and physical characteristics, values
  • And when the argument isnt complete, all gaps
    are filled with mythology !

115
Classic Characteristics ofEuropean
Ethno-nationalism
  • ? Claim both that their people are superior and
    are (have been) victimized
  • ? Frame their political ideas around selective
    visions of history
  • ? Claim that membership is not a choice blood
    determines a nationalists identity
  • ? Narrative always dwells on chosen traumas and
    chosen glories
  • ? Seek to dominate or eliminate minorities

116
Americans BLURRED View of Nationalism
  • Nationalism vs. Patriotism / Nation State
  • US policymakers generally fail to appreciate
    the power of nationalism in other societies and
    have demonstrated neither skill nor sensitivity
    in dealing with its manifestations abroad.
    Pei, Carnegie

117
Global Hatred Index
  • 4000 Internet Sites
  • Targets 35 anti-American
  • 32 anti-Semitic
  • 20 anti-Islamic
  • Fodder for nationalism / emotional appeals

118
NATIONALISM
  • ? force rationalizing the break-up of sovereign
    states
  • ? common revolutionary theme often coupled with
    anti-colonialism
  • ? fear of others xenophobia
  • ? ethnic cleansing (genocide)
  • ? proliferation of states
  • ? Giving nationalism a bad rap ?
  • INCLUSIVE vs. EXCLUSIVE

119
In sharp contrast, forces working to
INTEGRATE
  • To create ever larger political entities that
    embrace the advantages outlined earlier of
    greater size. NAFTA, SEATO, ASIEN, and the
    EUROPEAN UNION

120
Genesis of European Integration
  • Jean Monnet Europeanists
  • ?European Coal Steel Community
  • ?European Economic Community
  • ?European Community
  • ?European Union 92

121
European Union
  • IN
  • NOT IN
  • ?Germany ? Slovenia
  • ?France ? Poland
  • ?UK ? Hungary
  • ?Belgium ? Czech Repl.
  • ?Netherlands ? Slovak Repl.
  • ?Italy ? Lithuania
  • ?Spain ?East Germ.
  • ?Portugal ? Latvia
  • ?Ireland ? Estonia
  • ?Greece ? Romania
  • ?Malta ? Bulgaria
  • ?Cyprus
  • ?Sweden
  • ?Denmark
  • ?Finland
  • ? Russia
  • ? Ukraine
  • ? Moldova
  • -- Switzerland
  • -- Norway

122
Aspiring
  • ? Iceland candidate
  • ? Croatia candidate
  • ? Turkey candidate
  • ? Serbia aspiring
  • ? Macedonia aspiring
  • ? Montenegro aspiring
  • ? Albania aspiring
  • ? Bosnia aspiring
  • ? Kosovo aspiring

123
EU 2010
124
EU Political ArchitectureFunctional (not yet
constitutional) First Ten Years
  • Commission
  • 20 persons 2 each from largest 5
  • 1 each from others
  • 5 year terms/loyalty to EU
  • Functions as EXE CUTIVE
  • rule application
  • all policy initiatives
  • agenda setting
  • Council of Ministers
  • 87 reps from national governments
  • Different persons depending upon issue
  • Functions as LEGISLATURE
  • "brake
  • Decision by "qualified majority" 61 of
    87

  • Parliament
  • Elected from constituencies 626
  • Functions as "conscience of the
    people"
  • IF inaction assumed to concur
  • IF amends,
    Council must consider in 1 month
  • IF rejects, Council can overrule
    w/unanimity
  • Passes on all policies

125
Genesis of EU Architecture
  • 2002 Convention of the Future of Europe
  • Components Council of Ministers
  • European Commission
  • EU President
  • EU Foreign Minister
  • European Parliament

126
EU Architecture
  • Council of Ministers
  • European Commission
  • ?Main decision-making institution
  • ?Ministers from member states
  • ?Functionally differentiated
  • ?Qualified majority -- weighted votes
  • ?255 of 345
  • 62 pop support
  • ? Executive
  • ?15 appointed by member states on rotating basis

127
  • EU President
  • EU Foreign Minister
  • ?Leaders of member states elect a president for
    up to two 30 month terms
  • ?Combine current external relations with high
    representative for common foreign policy
  • ?Becomes the chief foreign policy spokesperson
    for EU

128
European Parliament
  • ? Elected by the citizens in the member states
    in constituencies of equal numbers
  • ? Shares legislative budgetary authority with
    Council
  • ? Supervises the Commission
  • ? Last perhaps weakest player in policy-making

129
Implications for our world
  • Political system DESIGNED for the 21st century
    and the challenges of policy making response to
  • ? Complexity
  • ? Need for speed
  • ? Medias influence on public attitudes
  • ? Lobbying money in politics

130
US European Relationship
  • ?Cousins common values!
  • ?Comparable size pop, econ, human res
  • ?? Capacity to meet challenges /
  • efficiency of policy-making

131
The peasant with too many children
132
Puzzle in a box
133
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • ? Big Countries/Small Countries Does Size
    Matter?
  • ? Globalization Positive Negative Visions
  • ? Whos Your Cousin? Insights from Science
    Genetics

134
Questions for next time
  • How many people worldwide suffer from chronic
    hunger?
  • What percentage of the worlds trade is carried
    on ships?

135
What five countries own the bulk of the worlds
ships?
  • Greece
  • Japan
  • Germany
  • China
  • Russia
  • Flags Panama, China, Liberia, Malta, Cyprus

136
Dick Farkas
  • Professor, Political Science, DePaul University,
    Chicago
  • Student of Comparative Politics International
    Relations
  • 40 years of University teaching / 37 at DePaul
  • Most recent book DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
  • Current research Corporate Democracy, Bosnian
    Constitutional Design, Political/Historical Novel
    about American colonial life (GYRE)
  • Recreational Sailor, zealous traveler (3
    circumnavigations)

137
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • Big Countries / Small Countries
  • Does Size Matter?

138
Proliferation of States
  • ? End World War II 47 sovereign states
  • ? Today, 206 sovereign states
  • ? Last fifteen, smaller than Chicago in economy
    population
  • ? Wilsonian thesis
  • self-determination of peoples
  • ? Who decides what a people is?

139
Challenges for New StatesEspecially small ones
  • Military Defense
  • Control of Borders (relations given genesis)
  • Revenue Generation
  • Human Capital
  • Market Appeal to Others / Investors
  • Vulnerability to Nature
  • Vulnerability to Suppliers

140
Good News for small states
  • ?Feels Cohesive
  • ?Small Population to Manage
  • ?Small Population to Provide Services
  • ?Ease of Communication

141
What Prospects? for an independent
  • Istria
  • Gran Canaria
  • Puerto Rico
  • Hawaii
  • Kosovo
  • Croatia
  • (Our Land)

142
Small States / Some New Microstates
  • Kiribati, Liechtenstein, Marshall Islands,
  • Monaco, Nauru, Palau, Tuvalu all smaller than
    100,000 pop smaller than RI
  • ? not militarily defensible
  • ? vulnerable to natural disasters
  • ? vulnerable to external economic shocks
  • ? less attractive to investment for production
  • NOT ECONOMICALLY VIABLE

143
What one would NOT know if living in a NEW, small
state starter list
  • ?who would rule the state?
  • ?what will the taxes be?
  • ?can I start a business?
  • ?Who will control economy (many dimensions)
  • ?Who can be a citizen?
  • ?What sorts of mobility do I have?
  • ?Who has access to education?
  • ?Do I have to serve in the military?
  • ?Are my credentials good in our neighboring
    states?
  • ?What RIGHTS do I have?

144
Singular Advantage
  • Sell sovereignty to
  • Rich states exchange support / votes in
    international organizations or commissions for
    aid, assistance or recognition
  • Corporations domain names (CCTLD)
  • (Turks Caicos/Tonga/Tuvalu/Moldova/Niue)
  • Criminal groups phone sex, phone scams, money
    laundering (Nauru), drug cartels

145
European Union
  • IN
  • NOT IN
  • ?Germany ? Slovenia
  • ?France ? Poland
  • ?UK ? Hungary
  • ?Belgium ? Czech Repl.
  • ?Netherlands ? Slovak Repl.
  • ?Italy ? Lithuania
  • ?Spain ?East Germ.
  • ?Portugal ? Latvia
  • ?Ireland ? Estonia
  • ?Greece ? Romania
  • ?Malta ? Bulgaria
  • ?Cyprus
  • ?Sweden
  • ?Denmark
  • ?Finland
  • ? Russia
  • ? Ukraine
  • ? Moldova
  • -- Switzerland
  • -- Norway

146
Aspiring
  • ? Iceland candidate
  • ? Croatia accepted 2013
  • ? Turkey candidate
  • ? Serbia aspiring
  • ? Macedonia aspiring
  • ? Montenegro aspiring
  • ? Albania aspiring
  • ? Bosnia aspiring
  • ? Kosovo aspiring

147
What are they seeking?
  • Former Communist countries
  • values, architecture, leadership
  • destination, vehicle, driver
  • Others advantages of size stability
  • especially but not exclusively economic
  • models for policy-making behaviors

148
Largest Sovereign States 2011
  • Russia, Canada, China, USA, Brazil, Australia,
    Argentina, EU, Indonesia, India

149
Intrinsic ADVANTAGES of Size
  • ? Defensible
  • conventional / not nuclear or terrorism
  • ? Substantial HUMAN RESOURCES
  • ? Substantial natural resources
  • ? Significant markets
  • ? Attractive venues for investment
  • ? More diverse production yielding
  • lower vulnerability to external forces

150
Intrinsic CHALLENGES of Size
  • ? Create modicum of tolerance in order to deal
    with diversity
  • ? Prone to invest in defense / borders
  • ? Providing services to large population
  • ?Challenge of creating a government with a
    centralized-decentralized balance
  • key relationship between center parts

151
Emerging Markets
  • Most dramatically growing markets
  • magnet for investment interest
  • BRIC Brazil, Russia, India, China
  • BRICT add Turkey
  • Large countries at similar stages of newly
    advanced economic development

152
B.R.I.C.
  • Represent a shift in economic power away from
    G-7 surpass by 2032
  • By 2050, BRIC economies will eclipse the combined
    economies of the richest countries of the world.
    Goldman Sachs
  • BRIC ¼ worlds land 40 population

153
B.R.I.C.
  • Indications are that they are seeking to form a
    political club or alliance thereby converting
    their economic power into geo-political power.
    09 Yekaterinburg summit
  • ?Chinas economy did surpass Germanys in 2007.
  • did surpass Japan in 2010
  • will surpass USA by 2027

154
B.R.I.C.
  • ?Indias growth rate is higher than China
  • will surpass Japan by 2032
  • ?BRIC currencies will appreciate by 300 over
    the next 50 years boosting investors in BRIC
    assets
  • ?Taken together, in 40 years BRIC will be larger
    than the US European economies
  • ?By 2025, BRIC brings over 200 million more
    people (w incomes over 15,000) into the world
    economy (more than Germ, FR, UK combined)

155
GDP in 2050
  • China
  • USA
  • India 8. Japan
  • Brazil 9. UK
  • Mexico 10. Germany
  • Russia
  • Indonesia

156
GDP in 2050with macrostates
  • China
  • USA/Canada/Mexico
  • European Union
  • India
  • Brazil
  • Indonesia
  • Japan

157
Predictions
  • C.B.I. -- become dominant global suppliers of
    manufactured goods services
  • B.R. -- dominant suppliers of raw materials
  • B. -- only country with capacity to continue all
    elements simultaneously
  • C. -- Will have the largest equity market
    capitalization by 2032

158
Shift in Relationship with IMF
  • ? Brazil Russia both previous recipients of
    IMF support
  • ? Recently Brazil offered 10B
  • ? Russia announced intent to offer 10B
  • ? China announced intent to invest 50.1B
  • NET LENDERS!

159
BRIC formula ?
  • Since end of the Cold War, stressed simultaneous
    reforms in
  • ?EDUCATION
  • ?FOREIGN INVESTMENT
  • ?DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
  • ?DOMESTIC ENTREPRENEURSHIP

160
BRIC Weaknesses
  • ?Brazil relatively SOLID
  • ?Russia China NOT
  • full bodied democracies
  • Both threatened by disintegration
  • ? India insecure by way of POOR relations with
    neighboring states

161
  • 11 other countries could replace the BRIC
    (Goldman Sachs)
  • WSJ article identifies NIMVIT
  • Nigeria, Iran, Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia, and
    Turkey

162
Does Size Matter?
  • Think so
  • In our globalized world with an ever-accelerating
    pace of change and with capital the MOST mobile
    commodity in our world
  • SMALL IS NOT BEAUTIFUL.

163
Questions? Comments?
164
3 Ph.D.s 3 Lawyers off to a conference
165
Questions for next time
  • In the WTOs 15 years of operation, which country
    has made the most trade complaints?
  • What percentage of Americans are self-described
    isolationists?

166
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • ? Globalization Positive Negative Visions
  • ? Whos Your Cousin? Insights from Science
    Genetics

167
Dick Farkas
  • Professor, Political Science, DePaul University,
    Chicago
  • Student of Comparative Politics International
    Relations
  • 40 years of University teaching / 36 at DePaul
  • Most recent book DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE BALKANS
  • Current research Corporate Democracy, Bosnian
    Constitutional Design, Political/Historical Novel
    about American colonial life (GYRE)
  • Recreational Sailor, zealous traveler (3
    circumnavigations)

168
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • Globalization
  • Positive and Negative Visions

169
Globalization
  • The integration of everything with everything
    else. Thomas
    Friedman
  • Walls are gone cant be reconstructed. TF
  • The integration of markets, finance, and
    technology in a way that shrinks the world from a
    size medium to a size small.
  • Globalization affects everyone but quite
    differently in different places.
  • Secret the way to succeed in globalization is
    to focus on the fundamentals reading, writing,
    arithmetic.

170
  • More complexity leads to more instability
  • Robert Kaplan
  • Globalization is not the good news its just
    the news. RK
  • Poverty does not lead to revolutions
    development does.

171
Globalization New Term, Old Dynamic
  • History
  • World Bank, IMF, GATT
  • Acceleration
  • WTO
  • Debt

172
Who are the players?
  • ?Political players
  • states, sub-state players, NGOs, interest
    groups,
  • individuals, media
  • ?Economic players
  • consumers, producers, states, other states,
  • enterprises, elites, regional-global
    organizations
  • criminal organizations
  • ?Social players
  • religious organizations, moral leaders,
  • revolutionaries, philosophers

173
What tools does a state system (government) have
to manage an economy?
  • ? Control rate at which people save
  • ? Maintain competition among companies
  • ? Increase education
  • ? Increase mobility
  • ? Develop new technology
  • ? Redistribute wealth

174
Capitalism driving force
  • ?Logic of costs payoffs
  • ?Dynamic adaptive
  • ?Individual motivation / incentives
  • ?Choices
  • ?Inequality
  • ?Profit-centered

175
More Capitalism
  • ?Efficiency
  • ?Preponderance of non State ownership
  • ?Competition / pluralism
  • ?Markets / demand

176
John Maynard Keynes,
  • Capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the
    nastiest of men for the nastiest of motives will
    somehow work for the benefit of all.

177
Markets
  • ?Characterized by the exchange of goods and
    services
  • ?Who influences MARKETS?
  • consumers, producers, states, other states,
    enterprises, elites, regional and global
    organizations

178
Marketeers the Problems They Create
  • Hedging, Swaps, Options, Derivatives,
  • Index trading, Junk bonds
  • Casino Capital
  • Pinball Capital money invested in short-term
    speculative places

179
Corporate Consolidation Control
  • Does GLOBALIZATION endow massive MNCs with power
    beyond any state?
  • ? Does become a competing identity.
  • ? Does force recognition of new actors.
  • ? Does enable shifting operations to the
  • disadvantage of sovereign states

180
Giant Corporations Gain Immense Power
  • Not clear
  • the proportion of output from big companies has
    declined!
  • Advantage to challengers / competitors
  • new technology capital fewer barriers easier
    market access

181
Globalization CULTURE
  • ?What is it? How defined?
  • economically, linguistically, artistically,
    politically, intellectually
  • ?Is there good culture and bad culture?
  • ?Is there high culture and low culture?
  • ?Are there inferior cultures?
  • ?Is it something to be maintained?
  • ?Does something or somebody THREATEN culture?
  • ?Who generates culture?

182
Homogenizing CULTURE
  • Superficial behaviors or deeply rooted change?
  • ?Pizza example
  • ?China business culture seeping into the CP

183
GLOBALIZATION
  • ? Linking and/or Leveling
  • or something else?
  • ? Dependency real
  • ? Debt creates shared interests
  • ? Risk spread
  • ? Poverty ebb flow not diminished
  • ? Engineering change without GLOBAL
    perspective

184
The many dimensions of GLOBALIZATION
  • ? Political IOs, treaties, gov interface
  • ?Technological internet, communication
  • ?Personal travel, tourism, ex-pats
  • ?Economic trade, investment, capital flows
  • ?Education study abroad, foreign students,
    academic exchange, joint research

185
GLOBALIZATION Balance SheetThe Arguments
  • NEGATIVE
  • POSITIVE
  • Lost jobs
  • Lost cultural identity
  • Lost democratic rights
  • Lost clean air water
  • Triumph of giant companies
  • Mobility to sell labor / ideas
  • Webs of dependency
  • Mutual interests? stability
  • Non-violent mechanisms for
  • conflict resolution
  • Knowledge awareness ?
  • vehicle for engagement

186
Globalization Language
  • 6800 known living languages
  • Roughly 1000 languages in the Pacific
    Americas
  • Roughly 2000 in Asia Africa
  • 230 in Europe
  • Chinese most spoken today
  • By 2050 Chinese 3X English Hindi-Urdu, Spanish
    Arabic will catch up to English
  • English will remain the language of global
    commerce

187
Forms of Dependency
  • ?Products
  • ?Finances
  • ?Currency
  • ?Markets
  • ?Exchanges
  • ?Alliances

188
Measuring GLOBALIZATION
  • The ACADEMIC answer
  • Economic integration trade FDI
  • Technological connectivity internet users,
  • internet hosts, secure servers
  • Personal contact travel, communication,
    remittances
  • Political engagement membership support for
    IOs, treaties, peacekeeping

189
Leaders in globalization
  • Political Austria
  • Technological USA
  • Personal Switzerland
  • Economic Ireland
  • Overall ranking Ireland, Singapore,
    Switzerland

190
Next two tiers
  • Netherlands, Finland, Canada, USA, New Zealand,
    Austria, Denmark, Sweden,
  • UK, Australia, Czech Republic, France, Portugal,
    Norway, Germany, Slovenia, Malaysia
  • European small (perspective altered by EU)

191
Broadly linear pattern
  • ?Life Expectancy Globalization
  • Countries with longer life expectancy are also
    those with higher globalization rankings
  • ? Not causal relationship

192
Globalization Religious ParticipationTop
half
  • No correlation except in Ireland, USA, Portugal,
    Spain
  • Places where religious participation surpasses
    globalization Italy, Slovakia, Portugal, Spain

193
Globalization Religious Participation(bottom
half)
  • In ALL countries religious participation far
    exceeds globalization except in China, Russia,
    Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea
  • Correlation Less globalization/more religious
    participation NOT CAUSAL

194
Religion Changing
  • Religion intensifies with development
    urbanization. Responds to economic change with
    stricter premises. RK

195
Globalization Gender-related Development
  • Clear linear correlation
  • More globalization ? women better off

196
Bottom 10
  • Least Globalized (in the study of 62)
  • Iran, India, Egypt, Indonesia, Venezuela, China,
    Bangladesh, Turkey, Kenya, Brazil

197
Questions Comments
198
Groucho on UNIVERSITIES
199
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • ? Whos Your Cousin?
  • Insights from Science Genetics

200
Questions for next time
  • Which country has the highest percentage of women
    in parliament?
  • How much water does it take to produce the food
    an average person eats in a day?

201
Making Our World a More Understandable Place
  • Whos Your Cousin?

202
Scientist or Humanist?
  • If new information generated carefully and
    responsibly suggested a reality that is new to
    you, would you
  • Believe it because it was scientifically
    established (scientist)
  • Believe whatever you did before because it
    complies with your personal experiences
    (humanist)

203
Seven Daughters of Eve
  • Bryan Sykes, The Science that Reveals
  • Our Genetic Ancestry
  • DNA the Genome
  • The DNA in every cell of our bodies carries a
    message from our ancestors
  • Genetic material reveals clues to the whole
    history of the human race

204
Conclusion
  • To my astonishment, we are all connected through
    our mothers to only a handful of women living ten
    thousand years ago.
  • Iceman was found in the Alps frozen 5000 years
    ago. Sykes found a person with identical DNA
    his own lab worker!

205
All persons living today with a European
heritage, have an unbroken genetic link to just
seven women.
  • ?At least 650 million people are direct
  • maternal ancestors of just seven women
  • ?17,000 years ago (Ice Age) only survivable on
    edge of Med
  • ?founder sequences date back 45,000 yrs

206
DNADeoxyribonucleic Acid
  • ?like two long coils of intertwined string
  • ?double helix
  • ?four components nucleotide bases
  • ?A adrenine C cytosine G guanine T thymine
  • ?DNA doesnt do anything !!
  • ?It directs proteins to do things different
    sequences send different instructions.

207
Example
  • ? One million cells in each hair follicle
  • ? Every cell has full set of DNA
  • ? DNA instructs what hair to make (triplets)
  • ? Cells read instructions produce specific
  • kind of keratin which becomes hair

208
objectively defined races simply do
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